今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】欧盟与美国发表联合声明，公布了双方在7 月达成新贸易协议的具体细节。根据联合声明，美国将对汽 车、药品、半导体和木材等大多数欧盟输美商品征收15%的关 税。欧盟承诺取消对美国产工业品的关税，并为美国海产品和 农产品提供优惠市场准入。欧盟还计划到2028年前采购7500亿 美元的美国液化天然气、石油和核能产品，另采购400亿美元的 美国人工智能芯片。评：美国和欧盟达成协议，该协议大幅利 好美国而利空欧元，美元指数再度上涨。美元指数是否持续进 入上涨趋势，需要重点关注。黄金短期有反弹需求，短期或震 荡偏多，但需要关注美元和黄金的跷跷板效应，周五杰克逊霍 尔年会或增加贵金属波动。 【短评-原油】伊拉克公布了2024-2028年五年发展计划， 目标是在该计划末期将石油日产量提升至近600万桶；据俄罗斯 《消息报》网站8月21日报道，印度已经就俄罗斯能源问题做出 了最终决定。印度驻俄罗斯大使维奈·库马尔表示，尽管面临 美国的压力，新德里仍将继续购买俄罗斯石油。评：弱预期PK 现实库存未累积。当前位置可暂观望。 投资咨询中心 2025年08月22日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：s ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计314家独立洗煤厂样本产能利用 率为36.1%，环比减0.46%；精煤日产25.7万吨，环比减0.7万 吨；精煤库存294.8万吨，环比减2.2万吨。评：需求方面，焦 炭第七轮提涨目前尚未被钢厂接受，但前期六轮涨价落地后， 焦化企业利润有所修复，叠加铁水产量维持在240万吨/日的高 位，对原料煤刚需仍存支撑，后续关注部分焦钢企业临时限产 预期及其实际执行力度。综合来看，预计短期焦煤价格整体以 震荡运行为主。 【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2305元/吨，上升25元 /吨；中国甲醇港口样本库存107.6万吨，周上升5.42万吨；中 国甲醇样本生产企业库存31.08万吨，周增加1.52万吨，样本企 业订单待发20.74万吨，周减少1.2万吨；下游总产能利用率 72.36%，周下降0.34%。评：国内甲醇开工高位上升，下游需求 较稳，甲醇港口库存继续积累，9月预期进口量维持高位。内地 甲醇市场部分地区继续偏弱，企业竞拍成交顺畅，港口甲醇市 场商谈成交一般。预计甲醇01合约短期震荡运行，下方支撑 2385一线，建议观望。 投资咨询中心 2025年08月2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views - The steel market may experience weak and volatile prices in the short - term due to decreased demand in the off - season and expected production restrictions in Tangshan [1]. - The methanol 01 contract is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, with a suggested strategy of short - selling on rebounds [2]. - The manganese silicon price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and its upside potential is limited in the long - term [4]. - The coking coal futures are expected to be volatile in the short - term as the supply recovery is slow and demand has slowed down [5]. - The short - term price of live pigs futures is stable, and farmers are advised to sell and hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. - The palm oil price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term [7]. - The domestic soybean price is expected to be weakly stable in the short - term [7]. - The L2601 contract of plastics is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, with a suggested strategy of short - selling on rebounds [8]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9]. - The silver is still expected to be bullish with increased volatility recently [9]. - The gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but be bearish in the medium - term [10]. - The medium - and long - term treasury bonds are expected to rebound in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - term [10]. - The crude oil is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [12]. - The polyester staple fiber is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - The rubber is expected to be in a range - bound and weak in the short - term [13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - On August 19, the domestic steel market price fell weakly. The average price of rebar in major cities was 3347 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The demand for steel in the off - season continued to decline, and the supply - demand pressure increased. However, considering the planned production restrictions of Tangshan steel mills at the end of August and early September, the market bearish sentiment was not strong [1]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest decreased by 0.75 tons to 2.83 tons. The market price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2280 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 9.63 tons to 102.18 tons, and the production enterprise inventory increased by 0.19 tons to 29.56 tons. The methanol capacity utilization rate rose by 0.97% to 82.4%, while the downstream total capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.34% to 72.36% [2]. Manganese Silicon - The national开工率 (capacity utilization rate) of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 45.75%, up 2.32% from the previous week, and the daily average output increased by 1605 tons to 29580 tons. The cost support of manganese silicon was strong, but the supply - demand relationship tended to be loose due to the resumption of production by manufacturers [4]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 74.13%, up 0.38%. The daily average coke production increased by 0.27 to 52.29, the coke inventory decreased by 5.32 to 39.31, the total coking coal inventory decreased by 3.34 to 829.41, and the available days of coking coal decreased by 0.11 days to 11.9 days [5]. Live Pigs - On August 19, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.09 points to 115.33, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.11 points to 115.70. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 20.21 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of eggs rose 1.8% to 7.73 yuan/kg [6]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects the palm oil price to remain above 4300 ringgit. The domestic spot price decreased, and the trading volume was slightly boosted. The international soybean - palm oil price spread was inverted again, affecting future demand, but there was still support from holiday stocking in India and China [7]. Soybean - Brazil's soybean export volume in August is expected to reach 890 tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 880 tons. The domestic soybean market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. The new soybeans have not been listed in large quantities, but the state - reserve auctions have supplemented the market supply. The demand is weak due to high - temperature weather and the impact of other food prices [7]. Plastics - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China was 7327 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The weekly production was 28.96 tons, down 3.6%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 16% to 15.17 tons. The oil - based daily production profit was - 244 yuan/ton. The average opening rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.3% [8]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash was 1326 yuan/ton, showing weak and volatile trends recently. The weekly production was 76.13 tons, up 2.24%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased by 1.54% to 189.38 tons. The opening rate of float glass was 75.34%, up 0.15% [9]. Silver - The S&P confirmed the US "AA +/A - 1+" sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook. The market believes that the US economy is still resilient, and the US dollar index has rebounded, putting pressure on precious metals. However, the silver is still expected to be bullish with increased volatility [9]. Gold - The geopolitical situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict shows signs of easing, and the safe - haven sentiment has cooled. Coupled with the Fed's interest - rate cut and the rise of the US dollar index, the gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but be bearish in the medium - term [10]. Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank increased the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan. The bond market may rebound in the short - term due to loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, but it is bearish in the medium - term [10]. Crude Oil - As of the week ending August 15, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.4 million barrels, the distillate inventory increased by 0.5 million barrels, and the gasoline inventory increased by 1 million barrels. The profit of China's diesel and gasoline exports was poor, and India's economic growth rate was lower than expected, putting pressure on the oil market. The short - term crude oil has no upward driving force and is expected to be weak and volatile [11][12]. Short - fiber - The average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 86.45%, down 0.04% from the previous period. The production was 16.35 tons, down 0.01 tons or 0.06%. The average opening rate of the pure - polyester yarn industry was 70.96%, unchanged from the previous period. The average cash flow of the polyester staple fiber industry was - 223.77 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [12]. Rubber - The price of raw rubber glue in Thailand was 54.7 baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber was 49.8 baht/kg. In July 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 94.364 million, down 7.3% year - on - year. From January to July, the production increased by 0.7% to 686.115 million compared with the same period last year. The supply was stable, the social inventory decreased slightly, and the demand was weak [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content Core Views of the Report - For rubber, supply remains stable, short - term rain affects new rubber release, cost support is strong, but downstream production control in late August may slow inventory reduction and limit price rebound, with an expected oscillatory upward trend [1] - For coke, after six price hikes, coking profits turn positive, production increases slightly, demand is strong, and inventory is decreasing. The spot market is stable, and the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate [2] - For polyester bottle - chips, raw material support weakens, downstream demand is for rigid replenishment, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4] - For rebar, with the approaching parade, blast furnace restrictions are uncertain. Supply and demand both decline, inventory accumulates, but there is still support below the futures price, and the focus is on production restrictions and terminal demand [5] - For iron ore, supply is stable, demand is high, and the market is expected to oscillate as the fundamental situation is healthy [6] - For live pigs, supply exceeds demand in the short term, with weak price adjustments, and farmers can consider selling hedging [7] - For palm oil, domestic inventory is increasing, but due to bullish sentiment and pre - holiday demand, prices are expected to oscillate upward [7] - For soybean meal, downstream acceptance is low, but as inventory is consumed, prices are expected to rise, and the M01 contract is expected to oscillate widely with strong support below [8] - For soda ash, supply is increasing, downstream demand is average, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - For methanol, domestic production is rising, downstream demand is stable, inventory is accumulating, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [10] - For polypropylene, supply is abundant, inventory is high, and the PP01 contract is expected to oscillate, with suggestions to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] - For gold, geopolitical tensions may ease, and the medium - term trend is expected to oscillate downward [11] - For silver, the market is watching the Jackson Hole meeting, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut probability is high. Silver is expected to oscillate upward, with large fluctuations on Friday [12] - For short - term treasury bonds, rising capital costs and the stock - bond seesaw effect are negative for the bond market, with a short - term oscillatory downward trend [12] - For crude oil, supply expectations are raised, demand growth is lowered, and there is no short - term upward driving force, with an expected oscillatory downward trend [13] Summaries by Product Rubber - Thailand's raw material prices decline, with cup - lump down 0.35 baht/kg to 49.45 baht/kg, and latex remaining at 54.2 baht/kg. In Hainan, heavy rain disrupts tapping, and glue output is scarce. From January to July, China's rubber tire exports reach 563 tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase [1] Coke - The average national profit per ton of coke is - 45 yuan/ton, with different profitability in various regions. After six price hikes, coking profits turn positive, production increases slightly, demand is strong, and inventory is decreasing [2] Polyester Bottle - chips - In this trading cycle, the output is 32.27 tons, remaining flat. The average weekly profit is - 218.5 yuan/ton, down 11.75 yuan/ton. The terminal demand is in the peak season, with stable downstream industry operating rates [4] Rebar - On August 18, domestic steel prices fluctuate. The billet price in Tangshan drops by 20 yuan/ton to 3050 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities drops by 14 yuan/ton [5] Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports is 14381.57 tons, an increase of 114.30 tons. The daily port clearance volume is 346.80 tons, an increase of 10.35 tons. Overseas mine shipments decline slightly, and port arrivals return to last year's level [6] Live Pigs - On August 18, the average pork price in the national agricultural wholesale market is 20.20 yuan/kg, a 0.7% increase from last Friday. The overall supply is sufficient, and the market is in a state of oversupply in the short term [7] Palm Oil - As of August 15, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions is 61.73 tons, a 2.92% increase from last week and a 5.96% increase from last year [7] Soybean Meal - In the 33rd week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreases by 4.24% to 680.4 tons, and the soybean meal inventory increases by 1.12% to 101.47 tons [8] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1326 yuan/ton, with an oscillatory downward trend. The weekly output is 76.13 tons, a 2.24% increase. The total inventory of manufacturers is 189.38 tons, a 1.54% increase [9] Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu is 2302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton. The port inventory is 102.18 tons, an increase of 9.63 tons. Production is rising, and downstream demand is stable [10] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawing - grade polypropylene is 7022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton. Production is stable, supply is abundant, and inventory is high [11] Gold - Trump and Zelensky meet at the White House, with possible geopolitical easing, and the medium - term trend is expected to oscillate downward [11] Silver - The market is watching the Jackson Hole meeting, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut probability is high. Silver is expected to oscillate upward, with large fluctuations on Friday [12] Short - term Treasury Bonds - On August 18, most money - market interest rates rise, with the stock - bond seesaw effect being negative for the bond market, and a short - term oscillatory downward trend [12] Crude Oil - Trump hosts the Ukraine summit, and各方 support peace. The IEA raises supply expectations and lowers demand growth forecasts, with no short - term upward driving force [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, and the daily melting volume is also stable. There is no expectation of water release or ignition of float production lines this week, and the output is expected to remain stable. The terminal demand for float glass is still weak, and the market price in East China has been continuously falling. Enterprises are forced to adjust prices to relieve the pressure of goods shipment. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near future, with the support level of the 01 contract at 1,190. Short - term high - selling and low - buying is recommended, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [2][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of the domestic float glass market has declined, with an average price of 1,182 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.98 yuan/ton from the previous period. In different regions, the prices in North China, East China, and Central China have all faced downward pressure. The downstream mainly purchases for rigid demand [8] - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market and implement the transformation of urban villages and dilapidated houses. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries including building materials [8][9] 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Supply - side Analysis - As of August 14, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 75.34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, remaining unchanged month - on - month. There is no expectation of water release or ignition of float production lines this week, and the output is expected to remain stable. The weekly average profits of float glass with different fuels have all decreased [11] 3.2.2 Demand - side Analysis - As of August 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The terminal demand for float glass is still weak. From January to July 2025, the cumulative real estate completion area decreased by 16.5% year - on - year. In July 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.2%, and the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile and manufacturing industries [13][14] 3.2.3 Inventory Analysis - As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 1.579 million heavy boxes and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period. The inventory in North China and East China has increased [16] 3.2.4 Position Analysis - As of August 15, the long positions of the top 20 members in the glass futures market decreased by 22,374 to 905,482, and the short positions increased by 42,304 to 1,210,393. The net position of the top 20 members is bearish [19] 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The float glass price is expected to fluctuate in the near future, with the support level of the 01 contract at 1,190. Short - term high - selling and low - buying is recommended, and attention should be paid to stop - loss. Later, focus should be placed on the start - up changes of float glass [21]

双焦期货周度报告 2025年08月18日 六轮提涨落地 市场情绪降温 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周国内市场炼焦煤价格先扬后抑，14日河北、 天津等地钢厂对焦炭采购价招标上调，此为第六轮涨价，涨幅为 捣固湿熄焦炭50元/吨、捣固干熄焦炭55元/吨，顶装湿熄焦炭70 元/吨、顶装干熄焦炭75元/吨。 基本面分析：供应端，本周山西煤矿回到增产节奏，但临汾 部分矿井由于受到井下条件以及执行276工作日文件减产，导致山 西整体增产缓慢。但是陕西部分矿井因搬家倒面停产，产量下滑 明显。需求端，本周焦炭第六轮提涨全面落地，涨幅捣鼓50-55元 /吨，顶装70-75元/吨，焦企利润小幅修复，本周日均铁水产量 240.66万吨，环比上周增加0.34万吨，对原料存在一定刚需支 撑。但随着九月重大活动临近，山东、河北等地均有限产预期， 届时需求下降，下游采购积极性或继续降低。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congya ...

降息预期行情在途，关注杰克逊霍尔年会 摘 要： 尽管美国 7 月 PPI 数据大幅超预期，零售数据环比也大幅增长， 7 月环比增长 0.5%，市场对降息预期有所弱化，但是市场弱化的是 9 月降息的幅度，以及年内降息的次数和空间，对于 9 月降息依然 是大概率事件，目前市场给的概率为 80%以上，贵金属市场依然在 走降息预期在途行情，但是该行情的强弱有所波动。 美联储降息周期，将提升美国及全球的风险偏好，同时美国经 济进入新一轮复苏，实体经济的复苏叠加金融市场的走强，将使资 金持续回流美国，届时美元指数下跌动能将减弱。在这样的背景下， 黄金和白银或走分化行情，黄金在避险减弱的背景下，或走震荡行 情或震荡略偏空的走势，而白银在黄金尚未进入趋势性下跌的背景 下，或进一步走强，可以理解白银的补涨行情将到来，黄金和白银 同步波动与趋势分化同时存在，所以操作上较为困难。 从目前公布的经济数据来看，美国 7 月零售销售环比增长 0.5%，连续第二个月较大幅度增长，前值上修至 0.9%。7 月零售销 售同比涨幅达到 3.9%，经通胀调整后实际零售销售同比增长 1.2%， 连续第十个月实现正增长。美国 7 月 PPI 同比飙升 ...

流动性宽松使得债市操作难度加大 摘 要： 近期，央行发布第二季度货币政策执行报告提出，下一阶段要 落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，保 持流动性充裕。央行发布公告称，将于 8 月 15 日开展 5000 亿元买 断式逆回购操作，期限为 6 个月。叠加 8 月 8 日开展的 7000 亿 3 个月期买断式逆回购，本月央行买断式逆回购已累计超额续作 3000 亿元，有效注入中期流动性。下半年流动性宽松或是政策的主基调， 流动性宽松叠加股市上涨预期，或加强股市的波动，另外，流动性 宽松对债市的杠杆操作或有所帮助，债市的短期波动或加剧，股债 跷跷板逻辑和流动性宽松逻辑互为表里，使得债市操作难度加大。 截至 8 月 1 日，今年共发行 61 只记账式附息国债，总发行规 模为 68048.6 亿元，共发行 43 只记账式贴现国债，总发行规模为 18445.5 亿元。今年上半年，各地发行用于置换存量隐性债务的置 换债近 1.8 万亿元，总体呈现早发、快发的特点。同时，多地在财 政预算调整方案中安排专项债用于偿还拖欠企业账款。财政政策 "非常积极"，稳增长扩内需资金充足。7 月政治局会议召开，定 调了下 ...

钢材期货周度报告 2025年08月18日 库存继续累积 盘面震荡回调 摘 要： 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 钢材期货周报 行情回顾：本周建材价格先扬后抑，全国螺纹钢均价环比下 跌10元/吨。然而，终端需求仍显平淡且库存累积扩大，价格反 弹幅度有限。供应端在高利润的驱使下，复产增产延续，需求 端，市场逐渐恢复冷静，预期降温，实际终端需求减弱。 基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 的影响，钢厂产能释放力度由弱转强，但铁水产量继续减少，品 种产量继续下降。需求端：由于炒作因素退潮的影响，市场投机 需求明显减弱，淡季效应持续突显。成本端：由于铁矿石价格稳 中上涨，废钢价格小幅震荡，焦炭价格小幅上涨，生产成本支撑 力度维持韧性。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权策略：宽跨式 盘整 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 一、本周行情回顾 本周建材价格先扬后抑，全国 ...

从供应端来看，8 月份集团场出栏节奏欠佳，二育及 散户出栏积极性高，屠宰厂收购顺畅，猪肉供应充足。 从需求端来看，消费依旧处于淡季，但低价猪肉刺激 消费，屠宰企业收购量有所增加，产品走货略好转，但不 足以支撑价格走高。 操作上建议：低位做多，注意止盈止损，LH2511合约 下方第一支撑位13700；养殖户根据出栏节奏择机卖出套 期保值。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 短期低位做多，中期偏多 摘 要： 行情展望： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 生猪专题报告 1.生猪价格行情回顾 图 1：生猪期现货价格（元/吨） 图 3：全国样本商品猪出栏均重周度走势图(公斤) 请务必阅读 ...