期货市场交易指引-2025-03-26

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are expected to oscillate, and treasury bonds are recommended for timely profit - taking [5]. - Black Building Materials: Rebar is expected to oscillate; iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly; coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate at low levels [5][7][8]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is expected to oscillate at a high level, with a suggestion to reduce long positions on rallies and add on pullbacks; aluminum is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 20300 - 21000 for the main contract; nickel is recommended for waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin is expected to oscillate strongly; silver and gold are expected to oscillate [11][12][15][17][18][19]. - Energy Chemicals: PVC is expected to oscillate; caustic soda is expected to oscillate; urea is recommended for interval operation; methanol is expected to oscillate; soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options [21][23][25][27][28]. - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; apples are expected to oscillate strongly; PTA is expected to oscillate weakly [30][31]. - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs are expected to oscillate weakly; eggs are expected to have strong support in the near - term and be shorted on rallies in the far - term; corn is expected to oscillate strongly; soybean meal is recommended for interval operation; oils are expected to fluctuate within a range [33][36][37][39][40]. Core Views The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures products, including macro - financial, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton textile, and agricultural and livestock sectors. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply and demand, and international trade situations to provide investment strategies and market outlooks for each product [5][7][11]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: Due to Trump's possible "two - step" tariff plan, the decline in trading volume, and the drop in market liquidity and risk appetite, index futures are expected to oscillate, with IF oscillating strongly and IM oscillating weakly [5]. - Treasury Bonds: Although factors are favorable for the bond market, the central level of capital interest rates restricts the downward space of short - term bonds and the imagination space of long - term bonds. Bond yields may oscillate, and it is recommended to take profits in a timely manner [5]. Black Building Materials - Rebar: With the policy basically in line with expectations, weak economic data, stable production, rising demand, and slow inventory reduction, rebar is expected to oscillate, with its price below the electric - arc furnace flat - rate cost and above the valley - rate cost and long - process cost [7]. - Iron Ore: Affected by steel mill production restrictions and macro - economic sentiment, iron ore prices oscillated strongly on Monday. However, with pessimistic demand expectations and the possible implementation of steel production control policies, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal supply is stable, and demand is limited by the steel - coke game. Coke supply is high, and demand is affected by market sentiment and the low - inventory strategy of steel mills. Both are expected to oscillate at low levels [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: With the impact of US tariff policies and the slowdown in downstream demand, copper prices may face a high - level correction. However, due to the approaching traditional consumption season and the long - term demand logic, copper prices are generally easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to adjust positions [11]. - Aluminum: The supply of the ore end is improving, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. Although demand is rising and inventory has turned around, affected by US tariffs, aluminum prices may still have room for correction, and it is recommended to buy on pullbacks [12][13]. - Nickel: Affected by policy changes in the nickel ore end and macro - economic factors, nickel prices may oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [15]. - Tin: Although the supply of tin ore is tight, the resumption of production in Myanmar and Indonesia may increase supply. The recovery of the semiconductor industry may support demand, and it is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions [17]. - Silver and Gold: Due to the slowdown of the Fed's balance - sheet reduction, weak economic data, and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policies, the market's expectation of the Fed's early interest - rate cut has increased, and precious metals prices have continued to rise. It is recommended to build positions on dips [19]. Energy Chemicals - PVC: Affected by weak demand, high inventory, and new production plans, PVC is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as new production, spring maintenance, and downstream resumption [22]. - Caustic Soda: Due to the weakening of end - point expectations, high inventory, and rising liquid chlorine prices, caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as inventory reduction and alumina production [24]. - Urea: With a slight decrease in supply, stable demand, and smooth inventory reduction, urea prices have risen. However, it is necessary to prevent price corrections, and the 05 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1720 - 1880 [25]. - Methanol: With high domestic production, sufficient supply, and a slight increase in downstream demand, methanol prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as production reduction and international crude oil prices [27]. - Soda Ash: Although demand has improved, supply has increased rapidly, and soda ash prices are under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [28][29]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton: According to the USDA report, the supply and demand of global cotton have increased slightly, and with weak market consumption, cotton is expected to oscillate [30]. - Apples: With good apple出库 and low inventory, apple prices are expected to oscillate strongly [31]. - PTA: Affected by the trend of crude oil prices, the restart of maintenance devices, and the high - level operation of downstream polyester, PTA is expected to oscillate weakly and follow the cost - end crude oil [31][32]. Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: With an increase in supply in March, limited terminal consumption, and support from breeding and slaughtering, pig prices are expected to oscillate around 14 yuan/kg in the short term. In the long term, supply will increase, and prices will be under pressure [35]. - Eggs: In the short term, egg supply and demand are increasing, and the market is oscillating at a low level. In the long term, supply will increase, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies for the 05 contract and take a short - term view on the 08 and 09 contracts [37]. - Corn: With a decrease in selling pressure, high purchasing enthusiasm, and a decrease in new production and imports, corn prices are expected to be strong in the short term and may rise in the long term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the 05 contract [38][39]. - Soybean Meal: In the short term, domestic supply and demand are tight, and prices are supported. In the medium term, prices may be weak due to the large arrival volume from South America. In the long term, prices may be easy to rise due to increased import costs and possible reduction in planting area, and it is recommended for interval operation and long - position layout [39][40]. - Oils: In the short term, the trends of soybean and palm oils are oscillating, and rapeseed oil is strong. In the medium term, prices may fall. It is recommended to wait and watch for soybean and palm oil 05 contracts, pay attention to the pressure of rapeseed oil at 9300, and conduct arbitrage operations [45].