镍与不锈钢日评：区间整理-2025-03-26

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the rainy seasons in Indonesia and the Philippines are not over, and the Indonesian government frequently adjusts nickel industry policies, causing disturbances in the mining end and supporting nickel prices. However, the oversupply of refined nickel remains, suppressing nickel price trends. The nickel price has fallen from a high, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short positions and follow up on the final implementation of the Indonesian PNBP policy [1] - For stainless steel, the supply side is relatively loose, the demand side recovers slowly, and the raw material side provides limited support for stainless steel prices. Stainless steel prices lack continuous upward momentum, and it is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - Futures Prices: On March 25, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from 610 to 730 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 109,887 yuan/ton, a decrease of 678 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 190,892 hands, a decrease of 17,474 hands, and the open interest was 109,887 hands, a decrease of 678 hands [1] - Spot Prices: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 130,517 yuan/ton, with a basis of 630 yuan/ton compared to the active contract. The prices of nickel ore, nickel beans, and other nickel products showed different degrees of change [1] - Inventory: On March 24, the SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 897 tons in the recent week, a decrease of 3.18%, and decreased by 958 tons in the recent month, a decrease of 3.39%. The LME nickel inventory increased by 12 tons on March 24, an increase of 0.01%, decreased by 192 tons in the recent week, a decrease of 0.10%, and increased by 7,782 tons in the recent month, an increase of 4.03%. The social inventory increased, and the bonded area inventory remained stable [1] - Supply and Demand: On the supply side, nickel ore prices were flat, port inventories declined slightly, Indonesian production was adjusted downward, and domestic refinery production recovered slightly after seasonal maintenance. On the demand side, ternary production decreased, stainless steel mill production was stable and improving, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1] Stainless Steel Market - Futures Prices: On March 25, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai stainless steel futures active contract was 138,991 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,381 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 164,588 hands, a decrease of 201 hands, and the open interest was 138,991 hands, a decrease of 3,381 hands [1] - Spot Prices: The average prices of various types of stainless steel products (304 series, 316 series) remained stable, and the basis was at a premium [1] - Inventory: The SHFE stainless steel inventory decreased slightly, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 725,900 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons [1] - Supply and Demand: In February, stainless steel production decreased slightly. Terminal demand is gradually recovering. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1]