山金期货原油日报-2025-03-26

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long term, it's difficult to see a definite demand growth logic globally, and OPEC+ is gradually increasing production. Potential supply losses may come from Russia, Iran, and other countries affected by US sanctions. The support from the production cut floor in the past two years is still effective, but it may involve certain geopolitical factors. The market should pay attention to the US's counter - tariff policy expectations this week [2]. - The overnight crude oil fluctuated within a range and is currently in a rebound process. There are several factors affecting the oil price: difficult to find demand increments, OPEC+ gradually increasing production, Trump's push for US oil and gas production as a potential negative factor, the oil price getting support near the previous production cut floor but possibly involving OPEC+ geopolitical conflicts, and the market's changing expectations for US - Russia negotiations. The overall atmosphere may turn bearish, but the final situation depends on Russian crude oil supply data. Also, the previous decline in oil price may imply expectations of a US economic recession, which may fluctuate. Additionally, it's necessary to focus on whether the US implements a strong counter - tariff policy [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil Data - Futures Prices: On March 25, the SC crude oil futures price was 538.30 yuan/barrel, up 3.90 yuan (0.73%) from the previous day and 12.10 yuan (2.30%) from the previous week. WTI was 69.20 dollars/barrel, up 0.04 dollars (0.06%) from the previous day and 2.50 dollars (3.75%) from the previous week. Brent was 73.17 dollars/barrel, up 0.14 dollars (0.19%) from the previous day and 2.75 dollars (3.91%) from the previous week [2]. - Spreads: The SC - WTI spread was 5.78 dollars/barrel, up 0.49 dollars (9.36%) from the previous day and down 0.87 dollars (-13.08%) from the previous week. The SC - Brent spread was 1.81 dollars/barrel, up 0.39 dollars (27.82%) from the previous day and down 1.12 dollars (-38.18%) from the previous week [2]. - Spot Prices: OPEC's basket of crude oil was 75.11 dollars/barrel, up 1.98 dollars (2.71%) from the previous week; Brent DTD was 73.92 dollars/barrel, up 2.41 dollars (3.37%) from the previous week; Oman was 73.44 dollars/barrel, up 1.53 dollars (2.13%) from the previous week; Dubai was 73.44 dollars/barrel, up 1.53 dollars (2.13%) from the previous week; ESPO was 66.64 dollars/barrel, up 2.09 dollars (3.24%) from the previous week [2]. - Product Spot Prices: Diesel in East China was 6860.09 yuan/ton, up 23.64 yuan (0.35%) from the previous day and 27.55 yuan (0.40%) from the previous week. Gasoline in East China was 8072.82 yuan/ton, up 27.73 yuan (0.34%) from the previous day and 9.45 yuan (0.12%) from the previous week [2]. - Warehouse Receipts and Reserves: SC warehouse receipt total was 648.50 million barrels, down 50.00 million barrels (-7.16%) from the previous week. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 395.86 million barrels, up 0.27 million barrels (0.07%) from the previous week [2]. - EIA US Data (Weekly): Commercial crude oil was 436.97 million barrels, up 1.75 million barrels (0.40%) from the previous week; Cushing crude oil was 23.46 million barrels, down 1.01 million barrels (-4.12%) from the previous week; gasoline was 240.57 million barrels, down 0.53 million barrels (-0.22%) from the previous week; distillates were 114.78 million barrels, down 2.81 million barrels (-2.39%) from the previous week [2]. - CFTC Positions (Weekly): Non - commercial net positions were 16.68 million contracts, up 0.27 million contracts (1.64%) from the previous week; commercial net positions were - 18.22 million contracts, down 0.35 million contracts (-1.95%) from the previous week; non - report net positions were 1.54 million contracts, up 0.08 million contracts (5.38%) from the previous week [2]. 2. Fundamental Overview - Macro Aspect: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, and there are continuous concerns about US inflation. The US counter - tariff policy will take effect on April 2nd, which needs attention [2]. - Geopolitical Aspect: There are bullish factors in the Gaza Strip, US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. US - Russia negotiations have both differences and progress, and currently, the overall situation is moving towards a cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Attention should also be paid to incremental information from Turkey [2]. - Supply Aspect: OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts, which is mainly bearish. The oil price has partially priced in this factor, but it may not fully reflect the smooth increase in OPEC+ production. Attention should be paid to the number of US drilling rigs and the probability of Trump's oil and gas production increase policy implementation [2]. - Demand Aspect: It's still difficult to see a definite demand increment. There are reports that the US will replenish its SPR, but it may not be implemented quickly. Later, attention should be paid to the impact of inventory data [2]. 3. Operation Suggestions - The short - term oil price has deviated from the previous narrow - range bottom oscillation range and is approaching the previous oscillation lower limit (referring to US oil at 69.6 dollars/barrel). Traders should be cautious in holding long positions in the short - term, raise the stop - loss level to around 68.6 dollars/barrel for US oil, and be prepared to exit short - term long positions or convert floating profits into out - of - the - money call options. Those with a medium - term short - selling strategy can prepare to ambush out - of - the - money put positions during the rebound stage, with the execution price referring to 67 dollars/barrel for US oil [2]. 4. Other News - From March 15th to 21st in the US, API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.599 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 0.61 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.277 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.349 million barrels [3]. - On March 25th, Russia and the US agreed on a list of energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine that are prohibited from being attacked, and the agreement can be extended [3]. - The US Latin American envoy said that the Caribbean region is at a historical moment of energy security, and the oil development in Guyana will be an important topic [3]. - Iran's foreign minister reiterated that the indirect negotiation channel with the US is open, but Iran will not conduct direct negotiations with the US unless the US adjusts its policy towards Iran [4]. - Iran's foreign minister accused the US of trying to create division among Middle Eastern countries and urged Middle Eastern countries to defend their sovereignty [4]. - The Dutch bank ING said that Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on Venezuelan oil buyers may significantly tighten the global oil supply - demand balance. Chevron's sanctions exemption will expire on May 27th, and the 25% tariff will take effect on April 2nd [5]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 87.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 12.9%. By June, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 32.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 59.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 8.1% [5]. - On March 25th, Trump said that significant progress has been made in the Ukraine issue, and the US is in in - depth discussions with Russia and Ukraine. He also said that Russia and Ukraine will reach an agreement on a maritime cease - fire, and other countries will participate in monitoring the cease - fire process. Trump will consider Russia's request for sanctions relief [5]. - Bridgewater's founder Ray Dalio warned US House Republicans about the danger of rising deficits and urged them to cut the budget deficit to 3% of GDP [6]. - The winning bid rate for the 2 - year US Treasury auction on March 25th was 3.984%, down from the previous 4.17%. The winning bid rate for the 6 - week Treasury auction was 4.23%, down from the previous 4.24% [6].