投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月20日16时38分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属遇阻承压，沪金主力收涨0.22%，沪银主力收涨0.75%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，中美会谈利空兑现，地缘异动风 险仍存；美国就业走弱通胀温和，联储官员偏鹰，降息预期回调。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。俄乌、中东等地 缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联储公布的10月政策会议纪要显示，美联储决策层在上月降息时存在严重分歧。许多官员 认为，在2025年剩余时间内维持利率不变"可能是合适之举"。美国续领失业金人数激增，建筑商信心连续第19个月低迷。更多 美联储决策者暗示对12月降息持谨慎态度。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基 点概率跌至30%附近。美元指数和美债收益率下行遇阻偏强；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币贬值利多内价格。 ⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。⑥晚间重磅美国9月季调后非农就业人口(万人)前值2.2市场预测值 5，美国9月失业率前值和预测值均为4.30%。另外美国劳工统计局表示10月非农 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月19日16时26分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属低位反弹，沪金主力收涨1.09%，沪银主力收涨2.19%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，中美会谈利空兑现，地缘异动风 险仍存；美国就业走弱通胀温和，联储官员偏鹰，降息预期回调。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。俄乌、中东等地 缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美国续领失业金人数激增，建筑商信心连续第19个月低迷。更多美联储决策者暗示对12月降 息持谨慎态度。美联储杰斐逊表示，美联储接近中性利率，未来降息需谨慎推进。美联储施密德警告通胀风险，或在12月会议再 次反对降息。达拉斯联邦储备银行总裁洛根再次暗示她将反对12月降息，理由是担心通胀水平过高、呈上升趋势，而且距离回到 美联储2%目标仍需较长时间。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率维持 50%之下。美元指数和美债收益率下行遇阻偏强；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币贬值利多内价格。⑤预计贵金 属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 投资咨询系列报告 二、白银 报告导读： ...

报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹表观需求环比回落 ，螺纹产量下降，库存继续回落。热卷的库存环比回落，但明显高于历年同期。由于钢厂毛利大 幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂减产幅度可能会超过正常季节性的减产规模 ，从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱 迹象，铁矿石价格高位回落，钢材成本支撑减弱。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷短线快速上涨，上方面临 60 日均线和布林带上轨的压 制，布林带开口收窄，期价有可能企稳，但中线下行趋势仍没有改变。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待回调后做多，中线交易。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月19日08时20分 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3090 | -7 | -0.23% | 65 | 2.15% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated downward, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing down 1.33% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing down 2.54%. The short - term safe - haven factor: the negative impact of the China - US talks has been realized, but geopolitical risks still exist; the US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, Fed officials are hawkish, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has been adjusted back. The safe - haven attribute: the results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations have been announced, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The monetary attribute: more Fed policymakers have hinted at caution regarding a December interest rate cut. The market is waiting for more economic data, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December remains below 50%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are facing resistance on the downside and are relatively strong. The commodity attribute: the CRB commodity index fluctuates weakly, and the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Gold - related Data**: - **International Prices**: The closing price of the Comex gold main contract was $4045.10 per ounce, down $39.30 (-0.96%) from the previous day and down $78.30 (-1.90%) from the previous week. The price of London gold was $4072.50 per ounce, up $1.40 (0.03%) from the previous day and down $17.75 (-0.43%) from the previous week. - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 918.52 yuan per gram, down 10.94 yuan (-1.18%) from the previous day and down 30.36 yuan (-3.20%) from the previous week. The closing price of Gold T + D was 915.55 yuan per gram, down 14.67 yuan (-1.58%) from the previous day and down 30.95 yuan (-3.27%) from the previous week. - **Basis, Spread, and Ratio**: The difference between the Shanghai Gold main contract and London gold was - 8.57 yuan per gram, with a significant change compared to the previous day and week. The gold - to - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 79.77, up 1.88 (2.42%) from the previous day and down 1.97 (-2.41%) from the previous week. - **Positions**: The position of Comex gold was 528,789 lots (100 ounces per lot), unchanged from the previous day and week. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 90,872 lots (kilograms per lot), down 10,851 lots (-10.67%) from the previous day and down 40,173 lots (-30.66%) from the previous week. - **Inventory**: The LBMA inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged. The Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 13 tons (-1.08%) from the previous week. The Shanghai Gold inventory was 18 tons, with a small change compared to the previous day and week [2]. - **Top 10 Net Positions of Futures Companies in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange**: The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 companies had different changes compared to the previous day, with the top 10 net long positions totaling 91,567.00, down 2,014.00 (27.40%). The net short positions of the top 10 companies also had corresponding changes, with the top 10 net short positions totaling 18,604.00, up 251.00 (5.57%) [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. - **Silver - related Data**: - **International Prices**: The closing price of the Comex silver main contract was $50.05 per ounce, down $0.35 (-0.69%) from the previous day and down $0.36 (-0.70%) from the previous week. The price of London silver was $51.06 per ounce, down $0.95 (-1.84%) from the previous day and up $1.02 (2.03%) from the previous week. - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 11,699.00 yuan per kilogram, down 234.00 yuan (-1.96%) from the previous day and down 181.00 yuan (-1.52%) from the previous week. The closing price of Silver T + D was 11,697.00 yuan per kilogram, down 273.00 yuan (-2.28%) from the previous day and down 168.00 yuan (-1.42%) from the previous week. - **Basis and Spread**: The difference between the Shanghai Silver main contract and London silver was 35.30 yuan per gram, with a significant change compared to the previous day and week. - **Positions**: The position of Comex silver was 165,805 lots (5000 ounces per lot), unchanged from the previous day and week. The position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 4,836,015 lots (kilograms per lot), up 163,290 lots (3.49%) from the previous day and up 768,660 lots (18.90%) from the previous week. - **Inventory**: The total visible inventory was 42,209 tons, down 191 tons (-0.45%) from the previous day and down 391 tons (-0.92%) from the previous week [6]. - **Top 10 Net Positions of Futures Companies in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange**: The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 companies had different changes compared to the previous day. The net short positions of the top 10 companies also had corresponding changes, with the top 10 net short positions totaling 55,928.00, up 3,493.00 (7.77%) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 4.00%, the discount rate was 4.00%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) was 3.90%. The total assets of the Fed were $6,631.098 billion, up $74.55 (0.00%) from the previous week. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 4.49%, up 0.07 percentage points. The real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury was 2.42%, up 0.02 (0.83%) from the previous day and week. The US dollar index was 99.53, up 0.25 (0.25%) from the previous day and down 0.09 (-0.09%) from the previous week. The yield spread between 3 - month and 10 - year US Treasuries was 0.37, up 0.04 (12.12%) from the previous day and down 0.01 (-2.78%) from the previous week [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: - **Inflation**: The year - on - year CPI was 3.00%, and the month - on - month CPI was 0.30%. The year - on - year core CPI was 3.00%, and the month - on - month core CPI was 0.30%. - **Economic Growth**: The annualized year - on - year GDP growth rate was 2.00%, down 0.30 percentage points. The annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate was 3.80%, up 4.40 percentage points. - **Labor Market**: The unemployment rate was 4.30%, up 0.10 percentage points. The monthly change in non - farm payrolls was 2.20 million, down 0.57 million. - **Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index was 37.00, up 5.00 (15.63%). The existing home sales were 4.06 million units, up 5.00 (1.25%). The new home sales were 0.66 million units, up 0.10 million (15.15%). - **Consumption**: The year - on - year growth rate of retail sales was 3.76%, down 0.26 percentage points. The month - on - month growth rate of retail sales was 0.72%, down 0.27 percentage points. - **Industry**: The year - on - year growth rate of the industrial production index was 0.87%, down 0.39 percentage points. The month - on - month growth rate of the industrial production index was 0.10%, up 0.47 percentage points. - **Trade**: The year - on - year growth rate of exports was - 25.17%, up 1.86 percentage points. The month - on - month growth rate of exports was 1.79%, down 6.77 percentage points. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves were 2304.46 tons, up 2.18 tons (0.09%). The US central bank gold reserves were 8133.46 tons, unchanged. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The proportion of the US dollar was 57.80%, up 0.51 percentage points. The proportion of the euro was 19.83%, down 0.20 percentage points. The proportion of the RMB was 2.18%, down 0.00 percentage points. - **Safe - haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index was 90.76, down 7.64 (-7.76%) from the previous day and down 2.12 (-2.28%) from the previous week. The VIX index was 22.38, up 2.55 (12.86%) from the previous day and up 4.78 (27.16%) from the previous week. The CRB commodity index was 301.64, down 0.71 (-0.23%) from the previous day and down 5.41 (-1.76%) from the previous week [10][12]. - **Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from December 2025 to October 2027 is given, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate adjustments [13].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月18日08时15分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹表观需求环比回落 ，螺纹产量下降，库存继续回落。热卷的库存环比回落，但明显高于历年同期。由于钢厂毛利大 幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂减产幅度可能会超过正常季节性的减产规模 ，从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱 迹象，铁矿石价格高位回落，钢材成本支撑减弱。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷短线快速上涨，上方面临 60 日均线和布林带上轨的压 制，布林带开口收窄，期价有可能企稳，但中线下行趋势仍没有改变。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待回调后做多，中线交易。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3097 | 44 | 1.44% | 53 | 1.74% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 ...

低估值叠加驱动向下，期价仍承压 曹有明 从业资格号：F3038998 交易咨询号：Z0013162 2025年11月17日 ——山金期货螺纹热卷周报 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 目录 一 ．主要观点 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 数据来源：iFinD、山金期货投资咨询部 二．螺纹热卷期现货市场回顾 三．钢材的供需分析 四．行情展望与投资机会研判 主要观点：低估值叠加驱动向下，期价仍承压 1）单边投机建议维持观望，耐心等待技术面上底部的构筑完成、市场预期的改善和价格充分的体现了弱需求现实后， 将会迎来较好的中线做多机会。 数据来源：iFinD、山金期货投资咨询部 Ø 估值：目前螺纹和热卷处于明显低估的状态，且螺纹的01合约估值相对更低。 Ø 驱动：市场处于供需双弱的状态，价格的下行压力主要由两个方面造成，首先是较高的库存，特别是热卷的库存压力更 大；其次是消费的回落、钢厂的亏损以及终端需求在低位停留的时间相对更长可能会引发行业出现超过季节性趋势的减 产，造成铁矿石和焦炭等出现负反馈循环。 Ø 总结：目前期价处于低估值+驱动向下的状态，期价仍面临较大的压力，但下方的空间可能十分有限，单边投机的难度 较大。从技术面看，期价仍 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月17日16时33分 一、黄金 报告导读： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主力合约收盘价 | 美元/盎司 | 4084.40 | -90.10 | -2.16% | 76.60 | 1.91% | | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 4071.10 | -124.55 | -2.97% | 77.00 | 1.93% | | 国内价格 | 沪金主力收盘价（上期所） | 元/克 | 929.46 | -23.74 | -2.49% | -6.52 | -0.70% | | | 黄金T+D收盘价（上金所） | 元/克 | 930.22 | -17.76 | -1.87% | -2.80 | -0.30% | | 基差与价差、比价 | 沪金主力-伦敦金 | 元/克 | -1.54 | 2.79 | -65% | -16.85 | -110% | | | 沪金主力基差 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月17日08时11分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹表观需求环比回落 ，螺纹产量下降，库存继续回落。热卷的库存环比回落，但明显高于历年同期。由于钢厂毛利大 幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂减产幅度可能会超过正常季节性的减产规模 ，从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱 迹象，铁矿石价格高位回落，钢材成本支撑减弱。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷的期价均已经跌破了下方 10 日均线的支撑，目前下方 有布林带下轨的支撑，短线窄幅震荡之后，面临方向选择。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待企稳后逢低做多，中线交易。价格处于低位，不建议做空 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 期现货价格 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3053 7 0.23% 19 0.63% 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3256 2 0.06% 11 0.34% 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） 元/吨 3190 -10 -0.31% 0 0 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes short - term hedging factors (Sino - US talks' negative impact is realized, but geopolitical risks remain; US employment weakens and inflation is moderate, so Fed rate - cut expectations persist), hedging attributes (results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations are announced, and geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East remain), monetary attributes (more Fed policymakers are cautious about a December rate cut, but the end of the US government shutdown and economic data recovery may create conditions for a rate cut next month), and commodity attributes (CRB commodity index is weakly oscillating, and RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices) [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. Shanghai gold closed down 0.29%, and Shanghai silver closed down 0.04% [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $4174.50 per ounce, down $26.90 (-0.64%) from the previous day and up $189.70 (4.76%) from last week; London gold is $4195.65 per ounce, up $58.90 (1.42%) from the previous day and up $209.15 (5.25%) from last week; Shanghai gold主力收盘价 (SHFE) is 953.20 yuan per gram, down 8.02 yuan (-0.83%) from the previous day and up 31.94 yuan (3.47%) from last week; Gold T + D收盘价 (SGE) is 947.98 yuan per gram, down 10.69 yuan (-1.12%) from the previous day and up 30.34 yuan (3.31%) from last week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions are 528,789 lots (100 ounces per lot), unchanged; Shanghai gold主力 (SHFE) positions are 113,597 lots (1 kg per lot), down 10,642 lots (-8.57%) from the previous day and down 23,063 lots (-16.88%) from last week; Gold TD (SGE) positions are 45,964 lots (1 kg per lot), down 5,368 lots (-2.25%) from the previous day and down 21,288 lots (-8.37%) from last week; LBMA inventory is 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory is 1,152 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 13 tons (-1.08%) from last week; Shanghai gold (SHFE) inventory is 18 tons, up 1.57% from the previous day and up 1.32% from last week [2]. - **Net Positions of Top 10 Members**: The total net long positions of the top 5 members are 66,417.00, an increase of 568.00 (19.11%); the total net short positions of the top 5 members are 13,012.00, a decrease of 44.00 (3.74%) [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex silver主力合约收盘价 is $52.23 per ounce, down $1.00 (-1.88%) from the previous day and up $4.39 (9.17%) from last week; London silver is $53.87 per ounce, up $2.34 (4.53%) from the previous day and up $5.19 (10.65%) from last week; Shanghai silver主力收盘价 (SHFE) is 12,375.00 yuan per kg, down 213.00 yuan (-1.69%) from the previous day and up 891.00 yuan (7.76%) from last week; Silver T + D收盘价 (SGE) is 12,326.00 yuan per kg, down 237.00 yuan (-1.89%) from the previous day and up 846.00 yuan (7.37%) from last week [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions are 165,805 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), unchanged; Shanghai silver主力 (SHFE) positions are 4,708,155 lots (1 kg per lot), down 92,040 lots (-1.92%) from the previous day and up 1,025,400 lots (27.84%) from last week; Silver TD (SGE) positions are 4,040,198 lots (1 kg per lot), down 36,092 lots (-0.89%) from the previous day and down 253,820 lots (-5.91%) from last week; LBMA inventory is 26,255 tons, an increase of 1,673 tons (6.81%); Comex silver inventory is 14,813 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 118 tons (-0.79%) from last week; Shanghai silver (SHFE) inventory is 577 tons, a decrease of 46 tons (-7.41%); The total explicit inventory is 42,467 tons, a decrease of 46 tons (-0.11%) from the previous day and a decrease of 164 tons (-0.39%) from last week [6]. - **Net Positions of Top 10 Members**: The total net long positions of the top 5 members are 112,336.00, an increase of 8,357.00 (14.72%); the total net short positions of the top 5 members are 39,418.00, an increase of 2,773.00 (5.17%) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: Federal fund target rate upper limit is 4.00%, down 0.25 from the previous value; discount rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 from the previous value; reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, down 0.25 from the previous value; Fed total assets are $6,631.098 billion, down $608 million (-0.00%) from the previous value; M2 (year - on - year) is 4.49%, an increase of 0.01; 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.40%, an increase of 0.03 (1.27%); US dollar index is 99.48, down 0.14 (-0.14%) from the previous day and down 0.72 (-0.72%) from last week; US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.38, down 0.01 (-2.56%) from the previous day and up 0.05 (13.16%) from last week [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year) is - 0.15, an increase of 0.03 (-16.67%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.06 (-28.57%) from last week; US - EU yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 1.53, unchanged; US - China yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 2.84, an increase of 0.00 (0.01%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.02 (0.87%) from last week; CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00, unchanged; CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30, unchanged; core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00, unchanged; core CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30, unchanged [10]. - **Inflation, Economy, and Other Aspects**: In the US, inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and other aspects have corresponding data changes, such as GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, down 0.30; GDP (annualized month - on - month) is 3.80, an increase of 4.40; unemployment rate is 4.30%, an increase of 0.10; non - farm payrolls monthly change is 2.20 million, a decrease of 0.57 million; etc [10]. - **Other Attributes**: Geopolitical risk index is 103.52, an increase of 4.85 (4.91%); VIX index is 20.00, an increase of 2.49 (14.22%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.50 (2.56%) from last week; CRB commodity index is 302.35, down 0.31 (-0.10%) from the previous day and up 1.44 (0.48%) from last week; offshore RMB is 7.1105, a decrease of 0.0153 (-0.21%) [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is facing a complex situation with weakening cost support and potential negative feedback loops due to falling steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season. Both steel and iron ore prices are under pressure, but there may be opportunities for long - positions after price stabilization [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the apparent demand for threaded steel decreased, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. The inventory of hot - rolled coil increased slightly. Steel mills may cut production more than the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Coal, coke, and iron ore prices are weakening, reducing cost support [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of both threaded steel and hot - rolled coil have fallen below the 10 - day moving average and are currently supported by the lower Bollinger Band [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long for mid - term trading. Do not short when the price is low [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3254 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from last week [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 200.00 million tons, down 4.10% from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 313.66 million tons, down 1.41% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The five - major varieties of social inventory was 1061.38 million tons, down 1.27% from last week; the threaded steel social inventory was 415.75 million tons, down 2.34% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory was 332.99 million tons, down 0.01% from last week [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The five - major varieties of apparent demand was 860.61 million tons, down 0.73% from last week; the threaded steel apparent demand was 216.37 million tons, down 0.98% from last week [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **News and Market Impact**: The Simandou Iron Ore has finally started production, which is expected to affect the overall supply. Steel mills are reducing production due to falling profits and the end of the consumption peak season, suppressing raw material prices. Global shipments have declined from the peak, and port inventories are rising, putting pressure on futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price of the 01 contract has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band, and there is resistance from the dense trading area above [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 772.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.64% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 102.79 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.78% from last week [4]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1564.5 million tons, down 4.59% from last week; Brazilian shipments were 606.9 million tons, down 23.09% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory was 14898.83 million tons, up 2.45% from last week; the port trade ore inventory was 9977.79 million tons, up 3.36% from last week [4]. 3. Industry News - **Steel Billet Inventory**: According to Buguwang data, the steel billet inventory in Tangshan area was 119.63 million tons this week, down 1.35% from last week [6]. - **Threaded Steel Data**: As of the week of November 13, threaded steel production, apparent demand, factory inventory, and social inventory all decreased [6]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: On November 13, the coking coal auction in Linfen Puxian market showed a decline [7]. - **Steel Enterprise Data**: In early November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased, and the daily production of crude steel increased while that of steel decreased [7]. - **Coking Plant Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton this week [7].