| 1. 行情回顾 . | | --- | | 2. 避险属性演变逻辑 . | | 3. 货币属性演变逻辑 . | | 4. 商品属性演变逻辑 . | | 5. 技术分析 . | | 6.从多空博弈的角度看未来行情发展的方向 23 | | 7. 国内贵金属产业链概况 | | 8. 全球贵金属产业链概况 | | き表声明 . | 1.行情回顾 图 1：沪金主连本轮牛市关键节点 2025 年以来，贵金属继续上攻但金银出现分化。黄金多次连创历史新高，伦敦金最高涨至 3057.14 美元/盎司，Comex 金主力最高涨至 3065.2 美元/盎司，国内沪金主力最高涨至 711.24 元/克。白银在 黄金新高后，跟涨缓慢，多次承压回落。伦敦银最高涨至 34.224 美元/盎司，距离 2024 年 10 月创出 的 34.863 美元/盎司仍有空间，距离 2011 年 4 月的历史最高 49.840 美元/盎司仍然云泥之别，国内 沪银主力最高涨至 8444 元/千克，距离 2024 年 5 月的 8733 元/千克仍有距离。 开年以来贵金属主要逻辑在于：一是避险情绪升温。全球经济政治体系重构推动货币体系重构。 春节期间， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated upwards, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.35% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 3.92%. The short - term investment strategy for both gold and silver suggests that conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [1][2][6]. - The short - term core logic for gold includes increased trade - war concerns, ongoing worries about the Fed's independence, rising risks of U.S. economic stagflation, weakening employment, and moderate inflation, leading to the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Trump's new tariffs from the national to the industry level have broken the relatively calm trade situation, and there are still geopolitical disturbances in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more cuts this year. The dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have fallen under pressure. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term and rise in a step - like manner in the long term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net longs and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex gold and London gold) and domestic prices (Shanghai gold and gold T + D) have all increased compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex gold主力 contract's closing price increased by 0.25% compared to the previous day and 1.89% compared to the previous week [2]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold positions increased by 3.76% compared to the previous week, while Shanghai gold主力 positions decreased by 0.87% compared to the previous day but increased by 10.05% compared to the previous week. LBMA gold inventory remained unchanged, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% compared to the previous week [2]. - **Futures Company Member Net Position Ranking**: The top 20 long - position members' net long positions totaled 183,220, an increase of 3,550 (41.27% daily increase). The top 20 short - position members' net short positions totaled 23,066, a decrease of 251 (5.20% daily increase) [3]. Silver - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex silver and London silver) and domestic prices (Shanghai silver and silver T + D) have all increased compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex silver主力 contract's closing price increased by 3.07% compared to the previous day and 8.00% compared to the previous week [6]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: CFTC silver net longs and iShare silver ETF slightly increased their positions. The recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased. For example, the total visible inventory decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous week [5][6]. - **Futures Company Member Net Position Ranking**: The top 20 long - position members' net long positions totaled 188,609, a decrease of 18,061 (22.28% daily increase). The top 20 short - position members' net short positions totaled 95,783, a decrease of 1,179 (11.31% daily increase) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit and the discount rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 0.00%. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury real yield increased by 0.83% compared to the previous day [8]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI increased by 0.20% year - on - year, and core CPI increased by 0.10% year - on - year. The PCE price index increased by 0.14% year - on - year, and the core PCE price index increased by 0.05% year - on - year [10]. - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP decreased by 0.30% year - on - year in annualized terms but increased by 4.40% quarter - on - quarter in annualized terms. The unemployment rate increased by 0.10% [10]. - **Other Data**: Geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, VIX index increased by 3.14% compared to the previous day, CRB commodity index increased by 0.55% compared to the previous day, and the offshore RMB increased by 0.39% compared to the previous day [11]. - **Fed Interest - Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October 2025 is 89.3%, and the probability changes over different meeting dates in the future [12].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年09月26日15时47分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属金弱银强，沪金主力收涨0.01%，沪银主力收涨2.27%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，贸易协议分批达成，但美联储独 立性担忧再起；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期开始兑现。②避险属性方面，俄乌、中东等地缘异动仍 存。特朗普试图解雇美联储理事库克，库克诉特朗普越权罢免，引发外界担忧美联储的独立性。③货币属性方面，美联储降息25 个基点并暗示将进一步下调利率。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储在未来的利率决策中需要继续平衡高通胀和就业市场趋弱这两种 相互竞争的风险。美国上周初请失业金人数意外下降，美国第二季经济增速上修至近两年最快，削弱美联储进一步降息理据。目前 市场预期美联储10月降息25基点概率维持90%附近，且年内降息次数预期仍有2次左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品 属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币贬值利多国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中长期阶梯上行。 | | | 净多或 | | | | 博客 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年09月26日08时17分 报告导读： 供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，螺纹钢产量由降转增，厂库连续三周下降，表需连续二周增加，社库连续二周下降。五大品种总产量环比增 加了 9.5 万吨，厂库增加 3.0 万吨，社库下降 12.2 万吨，总库存下降 9.1 万吨，表观需求环比增加 23.73 万吨，表观需求的增加主要下游节前补库 所致，或不能代表表观需求的趋势性。工业和信息化部等部门联合印发《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》，整体来看，《方案》对原 材料品种有压制，对钢材价格有支撑，整体不及此前"反内卷"炒作的预期。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷期价冲高后回落，显示上方仍 存在明显的阻力，目前期价处于布林带中轨附近，布林带开口在收窄，整体维持震荡概率大 操作建议： 维持观望，激进的投资者可尝试逢低做多，轻仓操作 二、铁矿石 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 3 页 投资咨询系列报告 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk - aversion factors include the phased achievement of trade agreements, concerns about the Fed's independence, increased risk of stagflation in the US economy, weakening employment, and moderate inflation, with the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations starting to materialize [2]. - Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist, and Trump's attempt to fire Fed governor Cook has raised concerns about the Fed's independence [2]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month and hinted at further rate cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year [2]. - The CRB commodity index faces pressure in its rebound, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - Precious metals are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and rise in a step - by - step manner in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. There has been a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in the visible inventory of silver recently [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.03%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 0.83% [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3719.40 per ounce, up 1.12% from the previous day; London gold at $3663.15 per ounce, up 0.53%; Shanghai gold main contract at 860 yuan per gram, up 0.53%; gold T + D at 856.27 yuan per gram, up 0.79% [3]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions increased by 4.73% from the previous week; Shanghai gold main contract positions increased by 186.19%; Shanghai gold registered warehouse receipts increased by 0.38% [3]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai gold in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 112,314, a decrease of 3,744; the top 10 totaled 150,089, a decrease of 2,445 [4]. 3.2 Silver - **Market Influencing Factors**: The price of gold is the anchor for silver prices. There was a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in visible inventory [6]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex silver main contract closed at $44.27 per ounce, down 0.11% from the previous day; London silver at $44.33 per ounce, up 1.35%; Shanghai silver main contract at 10,397 yuan per kilogram, up 0.46%; silver T + D at 10,349 yuan per kilogram, up 0.72% [7]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions increased by 3.99% from the previous week; Shanghai silver main contract positions increased by 32.90%; visible inventory decreased by 0.13% [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai silver in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 112,866, an increase of 11,247; the top 10 totaled 166,336, an increase of 10,752 [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the Fed's total assets are $66,593.66 billion, up 0.00% [9]. - **Economic Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.39, up 3.02% from the previous week; the US dollar index is 97.23, down 0.10% from the previous day [9]. - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.90%, up 0.20 from the previous value; core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.10% [11]. - **Other Data**: Geopolitical risk index is 128.06, up 1.97% from the previous week; VIX index is 16.50, down 0.84% from the previous day; CRB commodity index is 299.88, up 0.72% from the previous day [12]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest - rate ranges at different times in the future is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate adjustments [13].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年09月24日08时16分 报告导读： 消息面上，工业和信息化部等部门联合印发 《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》，整体来看，《方案》对原材料品种有压制，对钢材价 格有支撑，整体不及此前"反内卷"炒作的预期。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量连续四周下降、表需有所反弹，总库存转降 。五大品种总产量环比下降 1.8 万吨，厂库下降 1.1 万吨，社库增加 6.3 万吨，总库存增加 5.2 万吨，表观需求环比增加 7.0 万吨，其中热卷的表观 需求环比有所回落。在消费旺季，市场的整体表观需求不及预期，且总库存仍在增加。在国庆长假前，下游补库需求可能支撑现货价格。从技术上 看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷期价冲高后回落，显示上方仍存在明显的阻力 操作建议： 维持观望，待期货企稳之后再做多 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 投资咨询系列报告 反内卷政策已经落地，整体不及预期，且对原材料影响偏空。从国内的供需情况来看，上周样本钢厂盈利面有所回调，主要因焦炭现货价格大幅上 涨和钢材价格走低所导致，上周 247 家钢厂铁水产量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has an overall suppressive effect on raw material varieties and supports steel prices, but it falls short of previous expectations [2]. - The anti - involution policy for iron ore has been implemented, which is also below expectations and has a negative impact on raw materials [4]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - **News**: The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was jointly issued by relevant departments, affecting the market [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Threaded steel production has declined for four consecutive weeks, with a rebound in apparent demand and a decrease in total inventory. The total production of five major varieties decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week, factory inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, social inventory increased by 6.3 tons, and total inventory increased by 5.2 tons. Apparent demand increased by 7.0 tons week - on - week, but the overall apparent demand in the peak consumption season is lower than expected, and total inventory is still increasing [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils rose and then fell, indicating significant resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Close long positions on rallies and then maintain a wait - and - see stance [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Policy Impact**: The anti - involution policy has been implemented, which is below expectations and has a negative impact on raw materials [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the profitability of sample steel mills declined due to the sharp increase in coke prices and the decrease in steel prices. The iron ore supply is at a high level globally, and port inventories have not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak consumption season. Before the holiday, the replenishment demand of steel mills supports iron ore demand [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it oscillated upwards but then fell after reaching a high. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be seen [4]. - **Strategy and Operation Suggestions**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance, patiently wait for a pull - back to go long, and be cautious about chasing high prices [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims for an average annual growth of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry in the next two years, with measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output, and promotion of the transformation of steel enterprises [6]. - From September 15th to 21st, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, and the iron ore arrival volume in Chinese ports increased [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for precious metals is oscillating with an upward bias, and the long - term trend is a step - by - step upward movement. This is due to short - term risk - aversion factors such as the phased achievement of trade agreements but renewed concerns about the Fed's independence, increased risk of stagflation in the US economy, and the start of the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East also support the safe - haven property of precious metals. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 25 - basis - point cut in October with a probability of around 90% and about 2 more cuts within the year. The CRB commodity index faces pressure in its rebound, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated upward. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.99%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 1.78% [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: International prices of Comex gold and London gold, as well as domestic prices of Shanghai gold and gold T + D, all showed increases. For example, the Comex gold main - contract closing price was $3719.40 per ounce, up 1.12% from the previous day [3]. - **Basis, Spreads, and Ratios**: The basis and spreads of gold showed different changes. The gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.77% compared to the previous day [3]. - **Positions**: The positions of Comex gold, Shanghai gold main contract, and gold TD all increased to varying degrees. For example, the position of the Shanghai gold main contract increased by 8.36% from the previous day [3]. - **Inventory**: The LBMA inventory remained unchanged, the Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08%, and the Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1.57% [3]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The net long positions of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai gold market showed different changes, with the total net long position of the top 10 increasing by 31.89% compared to the previous day [4]. Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [7]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: International prices of Comex silver and London silver, as well as domestic prices of Shanghai silver and silver T + D, showed increases. For example, the Comex silver main - contract closing price was $43.37 per ounce, up 3.00% from the previous day [7]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of silver showed different changes. The spread between the Shanghai silver main contract and London silver decreased by 7.40% compared to the previous day [7]. - **Positions**: The positions of Comex silver, Shanghai silver main contract, and silver TD all increased to varying degrees. For example, the position of the Shanghai silver main contract increased by 0.93% from the previous day [7]. - **Inventory**: The visible inventory of silver decreased by 0.20% compared to the previous day [7]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The net long positions of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai silver market decreased, and the net short positions also showed different changes [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate and the discount rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points. The Fed's total assets increased by 0.00% [9]. - **Inflation and Economic Growth Data**: The year - on - year CPI increased by 0.20 percentage points, and the GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points [11]. - **Interest Rate Spread and Yield Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 3.02%, and the US - Europe interest rate spread (10 - year bond yield) increased by 1.37% [9][11]. - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, the VIX index increased by 4.21%, the CRB commodity index decreased by 0.41%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.02% [12]. - **Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations**: The probability of different interest - rate ranges at different Fed meetings is provided, showing a trend of possible interest - rate cuts in the future [13].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年09月22日16时32分 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主力合约收盘价 | 美元/盎司 | 3719.40 | 41.20 | 1.12% | 38.70 | 1.05% | | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 3663.15 | 19.45 | 0.53% | 12.05 | 0.33% | | 国内价格 | 沪金主力收盘价（上期所） | 元/克 | 846.50 | 15.94 | 1.92% | 14.90 | 1.79% | | | 黄金T+D收盘价（上金所） | 元/克 | 839.93 | 13.93 | 1.69% | 11.90 | 1.44% | | 基差与价差、比价 | 沪金主力-伦敦金 | 元/克 | -10.53 | 4.51 | -30% | 4.09 | -28% | | | 沪金主力基差 | 元/克 | -6.57 | -2.01 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, the overall apparent demand in the consumption season is lower than expected, and the total inventory is still increasing. The expectation of the "anti - involution" policy is the current dominant factor. Before the National Day holiday, the downstream restocking demand supports the spot price [2]. - For iron ore, the "anti - involution" policy remains an important disturbing factor for the market. The supply is at a high level globally, and the port inventory has little change for now, but there is a possibility of inventory increase in the consumption season. Before the holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the iron ore demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: The output of rebar has decreased for four consecutive weeks, the apparent demand has rebounded, and the total inventory has turned to decline. The total output of the five major varieties decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week, the factory inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, the social inventory increased by 6.3 tons, and the total inventory increased by 5.2 tons. The apparent demand increased by 7.0 tons week - on - week, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term long positions can be held with a light position, and investors should leave the market in time when the price rises. Conservative investors are advised to wait and see [2]. - **Data**: Various price data such as futures and spot prices, basis and spreads, and production, inventory, and demand data are provided, including the fact that the 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 83.83%, the average daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, etc. [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of sample steel mills decreased last week due to the sharp increase in coke prices and the decline in steel prices. The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 tons week - on - week. The global shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory has little change, but there may be an inventory increase in the consumption season. Before the holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the iron ore demand [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, wait patiently for a pull - back to go long, and be cautious about chasing the rise [4]. - **Data**: It includes various price data such as spot and futures prices, basis, and spreads, as well as shipment, inventory, and production data. For example, the Australian iron ore shipment is 1836.9 tons, and the Brazilian iron ore shipment is 790.6 tons [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Independent electric - arc - furnace construction steel mills are in a serious loss state, with an average profit of - 132 yuan/ton and a valley - electricity profit of - 35 yuan/ton, and there are still actions to reduce production [7]. - Last week, the scale of maintenance of construction steel mills increased, with 15 maintenance production lines and 10 restarted production lines [7]. - The total urban inventory this week is 933.75 tons, a decrease of 5.43 tons (- 0.58%) from last week [8]. - The Simandou iron ore project has entered a decisive stage, and the first - batch mining operations of Blocks 1 and 2 have officially started, with a current production capacity of 4000 tons per hour [8].