投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月06日16时48分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡上行，沪金主力收涨1.27%，沪银主力收涨7.06%，铂金主力收涨6.02%，钯金主力收涨涨5.16%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，美国抓捕马 杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，尽管美国第三季度经济增长超过预期，但消费者信心降至4月以来的最低水 平。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至 四年高位。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好 位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附 近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需 求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数 ...

表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 3104 3248 | -18 -22 | -0.58% -0.67% | -26 -39 | -0.83% -1.19% | | 期现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） | 元/吨 | 3290 | -10 | -0.30% | -10 | -0.30% | | | 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 4.75mm，上海） | 元/吨 | 3250 | -20 | -0.61% | -30 | -0.91% | | | 螺纹钢主力基差 | 元/吨 | 186 | | 8 | | 16 | | | 热轧卷板主力基差 | 元/吨 | 2 | | 2 | | 9 | | | 螺纹钢期货10-1价差 | 元/吨 | 58 | | -4 | | -12 | | | 热轧卷板期货10-1 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月05日16时51分 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨1.40%，沪银主力收涨1.16%，铂金主力收涨6.48%，钯金主力收涨涨8.88%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，美国抓捕马 杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，尽管美国第三季度经济增长超过预期，但消费者信心降至4月以来的最低水 平。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至 四年高位。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好 位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附 近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需 求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月05日08时16分 报告导读： 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3122 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.13% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3270 | 0 | 0 | -13 | -0.40% | | | 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） | 元/吨 | 3300 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0.30% | | | 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 4.75mm，上海） | 元/吨 | 3270 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | 螺纹钢主力基差 | 元/吨 | 178 | | 0 | | 6 | | | 热轧卷板主力基差 | 元/吨 | 0 | | 0 | | 13 | | | 螺纹钢期货10-1价差 | 元/吨 | 62 | | -2 | | 10 ...

请务必阅读正文后的重要声明 1 | 1.1 | 2025 年中国宏观经济形势回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.2 | 2026 年国内宏观经济挑战与亮点并存 3 | | | 1.3 | 将延续扩张性的财政和货币政策 17 | | | 1.4 | 2026 年宏观经济展望 | 19 | | 1.5 | 2026 年度大类资产配置策略 20 | | | 2.1 | 2025 年海外宏观经济形势回顾 21 | | | 2.2 | 美国 | 22 | | 2.3 | 欧元区 | 25 | | 2.4 | 日本 | 30 | | 2.5. | 2026 海外宏观经济展望 | 33 | | 免责声明 | | 36 | 2025 年经济呈现弱复苏态势。放眼 2026 年，虽有政策支持，但投资下行压力仍较大，在居民 第一章 宏观 1.1 2025 年中国宏观经济形势回顾 2025 年中国经济在复杂外部环境下增长动能新旧转换持续，结构优化迹象明显，新质生产力 不断壮大、贸易多元化蓬勃发展，出口展现超强的韧性，但部分领域仍面临下行压力，地产低迷、 投资下滑、内需偏弱等挑战仍存。未来政策面上预计将持 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年12月31日08时17分 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹热卷产量回升 ，五大品种总产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落。螺纹表观需求有所下降，热卷的表观需求回升，五 大品种表观需求整体回落，市场仍处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰已过，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降。最近几天煤焦价 格大幅反弹，对盘面成本支撑有所抬升。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，冬储仍需要一段时间才能到来，宏观面信心增强，期价有望维持震荡 上行的走势。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约短暂跌破震荡区间后快速反弹 ，目前没有摆脱近期的震荡区间，也没有形成向下的突破。 操作建议： 多单继续持有，中线交易 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3134 | 4 | 0.13% | 6 | 0.19% | | 期现货 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年12月30日08时18分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹热卷产量回升 ，五大品种总产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落。螺纹表观需求有所下降，热卷的表观需求回升，五 大品种表观需求整体回落，市场仍处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰已过，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降。最近几天煤焦价 格大幅反弹，对盘面成本支撑有所抬升。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，冬储仍需要一段时间才能到来，宏观面信心增强，期价有望维持震荡 上行的走势。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约短暂跌破震荡区间后快速反弹 ，目前没有摆脱近期的震荡区间，也没有形成向下的突破。 操作建议： 多单继续持有，中线交易 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3130 | 12 | 0.38% | 4 | 0.13% ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年12月29日08时11分 投资咨询系列报告 临近年末，市场观望情绪浓厚，国内煤矿继续减产，开工率继续下滑，矿山原煤库存继续增加。进口方面，蒙煤口岸通关车数位于高位，澳煤价格 内外倒挂。需求端，中下游采购以刚需补库为主。随着下游冬储补库预期的增强以及反内卷预期的扰动 ，市场情绪有所转强。整体来看，年末焦煤 向供需双弱方向转变，利空因素在很大程度上已经体现在较低的期价之中 ，较大的基差对期价也有支撑。技术面上，焦煤05合约大幅反弹后回调， 预计将形成阶段性底。 操作建议： 多单可以继续持有，中线交易。 报告导读： 供需方面，本周的数据显示螺纹热卷产量回升 ，五大品种总产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落。螺纹表观需求有所下降，热卷的表观需求回升，五 大品种表观需求整体回落，市场仍处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰已过，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降。最近几天煤焦价 格大幅反弹，对盘面成本支撑有所抬升。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，冬储仍需要一段时间才能到来，宏观面信心增强，期价有望维持震荡 上行的走势。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the precious metals market witnessed a spectacular bull market driven by multiple factors such as the evolution of the global monetary system, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand imbalances. In 2026, the precious metals market will be jointly driven by macro - financial attributes and industrial supply - demand fundamentals, with significant differentiation among varieties [4][97]. - The safe - haven attribute of precious metals is shifting from the traditional model to hedging against sovereign credit risks. The currency attribute is affected by factors like inflation, employment, and central bank monetary policies. The commodity attribute is characterized by structural changes in supply and demand for different precious metals [19][27][68]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, all four major precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) soared. Gold continued its bull market, silver and platinum doubled in value, and the precious metals sector became the most outstanding asset class. The market's rise was phased, with gold leading in Q1, silver emerging in Q2, and platinum and palladium surging in Q3 and Q4 [4]. - Gold reached a record high of over $4500 per ounce, with a nearly 70% annual increase. Silver was the star performer, rising over 140%. Platinum and palladium also had significant gains, with platinum up about 160% and palladium over 100% [8][10][14][17]. 3.2 Evolution Logic of the Safe - Haven Attribute - The safe - haven function of precious metals is shifting from traditional geopolitical and economic recession hedging to hedging against the sustainability of sovereign currency credit, especially the US dollar. This is due to the weakening of the US dollar credit and the multi - polarization reconstruction of the global monetary system [19]. - Different precious metals show different safe - haven attributes. Gold is most directly related to sovereign credit concerns, while silver reflects both safe - haven sentiment and industrial cycle changes, and platinum and palladium are more closely related to specific industry trends [21]. - The US debt situation, policy uncertainty, and the potential for a significant correction in the US stock market may increase the safe - haven value of precious metals. However, if geopolitical tensions ease or AI technology boosts productivity, the safe - haven attribute may weaken [23][25][26]. 3.3 Evolution Logic of the Currency Attribute - In 2026, global inflation is expected to continue its moderate decline, but there are significant regional differences. US inflation remains sticky, with a complex "U - shaped" or wave - like downward trend, while the eurozone's inflation problem is basically resolved [27][33][36]. - The US employment market is expected to remain weak in 2026, with low job growth and a rising unemployment rate. This will put pressure on the Fed's decision - making [41][42]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in 2026, but the pace will be extremely slow, and the first cut may be later than market expectations. The difference in interest - rate cut expectations between the Fed and non - US central banks will affect the US dollar index and precious metals prices [52][59][60]. 3.4 Evolution Logic of the Commodity Attribute - In 2026, gold demand is expected to be driven by strategic allocation, with official and institutional investors playing a key role. Supply is facing long - term structural constraints, such as limited growth in mining and reduced elasticity in recycling [68][70]. - The silver market has been in a supply shortage for five consecutive years, and the gap is expected to widen in 2026. Supply growth is highly inelastic, while demand is driven by industrial needs and investment [73][74][75]. - The platinum market is expected to reach a tight balance in 2026, but the underlying support is fragile. Any unexpected supply disruption or demand surge may break the balance [79]. - The palladium market is expected to shift from a supply shortage to a surplus in 2026, driven by the decline in automotive demand due to electrification and a marginal increase in supply [80][81]. 3.5 Dynamic Combination Analysis of Fundamental and Technical Aspects - London gold has been in a long - term upward trend. It is expected to continue rising until the Fed hints at the end of interest - rate cuts in mid - 2026. Attention should be paid to the pressure at $4830 - 5000 and the support at $4000 [84][85]. - London silver is expected to have high volatility. It is recommended to focus on the pressure at $100 - 120 and the support at $58 [88][89]. - London platinum has entered a new cycle. Pay attention to the pressure at $3000 - 3300 and the support at $1760 [91]. - London palladium is in a long - term re - balancing phase. Focus on the pressure at $2080 - 2480 and the support at $1480 [95]. 3.6 Future Market Direction from the Perspective of Long - Short Game - In 2026, the precious metals market will continue to be strong, but there will be significant differentiation among varieties. Gold will be the most stable, silver will have high price elasticity, platinum has great potential, and palladium is expected to be the weakest [97]. 3.7 Overview of the Domestic Precious Metals Industry Chain - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic gold production increased, with both domestic and imported raw materials contributing. Gold consumption decreased, but there were differences among different product categories. China has been increasing its gold reserves for strategic reasons [98][100][102]. - Major domestic gold enterprises have different production plans and characteristics. For example, Zijin Mining is the largest producer with a high proportion of overseas output, and Shandong Gold has rich resource reserves in the Jiaodong gold belt [103].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 操作建议： 多单继续持有，中线交易 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 期现货价格 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3127 -9 -0.29% 2 0.06% 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3280 -5 -0.15% 3 0.09% 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） 元/吨 3310 -10 -0.30% 10 0.30% 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 4.75mm，上海） 元/吨 3280 10 0.31% 0 0 基差与价差 螺纹钢主力基差 元/吨 183 -1 8 热轧卷板主力基差 元/吨 0 15 -3 螺纹钢期货10-1价差 元/吨 65 13 40 热轧卷板期货10-1价差 元/吨 17 3 17 螺纹钢期货1-5价差 元/吨 -20 -5 -21 热轧卷板期货1-5价差 元/吨 2 0 -9 螺纹钢期货5-10价差 元/吨 -45 -8 -19 热轧卷板期货5-10价差 元/吨 -19 -3 -8 热卷01-螺纹01价差 元/吨 175 9 13 热卷05-螺纹05价差 元/吨 153 4 1 热卷10- ...