中银晨会聚焦-2025-03-26

Core Insights - The report highlights a slight decline in public fiscal revenue for January-February, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, indicating a broader economic trend [6][8] - Fiscal spending is increasingly directed towards "people's livelihood" areas, with a notable year-on-year growth of 3.4% in public budget expenditure [7][8] - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to a more proactive fiscal policy, with a planned deficit rate of around 4% for the year, suggesting an increase in fiscal spending [8] Macroeconomic Overview - In January-February, national general public budget revenue was CNY 43,856 billion, down 1.6% year-on-year, with central government revenue decreasing by 5.8% [6][7] - Local government revenue showed a slight increase of 2.0% year-on-year, indicating a mixed fiscal performance across different levels of government [6] - The contribution of personal income tax to revenue growth was significant, with a positive contribution of 2.3 percentage points [7] Fiscal Expenditure Analysis - Total public budget expenditure reached CNY 45,096 billion in January-February, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [7][8] - Central government expenditure grew by 8.6%, while local government expenditure increased by 2.7%, indicating a stronger focus on central initiatives [7] - The report notes a shift in expenditure structure, with a decline in spending on infrastructure and an increase in social security and employment support, contributing 1.2 percentage points to expenditure growth [8] Industry Performance - The report provides an overview of industry performance, with coal and basic chemicals showing positive growth, while sectors like telecommunications and computers experienced declines [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,369.98, reflecting a stable market environment despite minor fluctuations in other indices [3]