Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The domestic stock market has significantly reduced trading volume, and holding short positions in stock index IM is recommended. There is a possibility of market over - adjustment, and holding long positions in treasury bonds with a light position is advisable. The geopolitical conflicts and trade policies have increased the safe - haven premium of precious metals. The prices of various commodities show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended for each commodity [2][3][5][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Stock Index and Treasury Bonds - Stock Index: The domestic stock market has significantly reduced trading volume, with the market turnover at the 1.5 - trillion level, far lower than the previous 2 - trillion level. Insurance funds are buying bank and high - dividend coal stocks, while retail investors are more enthusiastic about market speculation. After the hype of deepseek and humanoid robots, the market has a short - term callback sentiment. It is recommended to hold short positions in stock index IM [2]. - Treasury Bonds: After the Spring Festival, the domestic market interest rate has rapidly declined, and there is a possibility of market over - adjustment. The basis for the long - term logic of the market is still the events of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts. After the short - term rapid market correction, it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [5]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: On Tuesday night, COMEX gold rose 0.3% to $3025.90 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.23% to 707.30 yuan per gram; COMEX silver futures rose 73.7 cents to $34.187 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.63% to 8360 yuan per kilogram. The "two - step" tariff strategy proposed by the Trump administration has increased the safe - haven premium of precious metals. The target price of COMEX gold is seen at $3100 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold main contract is expected to reach 710 yuan per gram. It is recommended to add positions in batches during the correction [6]. Base Metals - Copper: On Tuesday night, LME copper rose 1.61% to $10094.5 per ton, and Shanghai copper rose 1.3% to 82780 yuan per ton. The weakening of the US dollar and concerns about tariff policies have pushed up copper prices. The high price difference has promoted active arbitrage trading. The fundamentals support copper prices to a certain extent, but attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of US tariff policies and risk control [7]. - Aluminum and Alumina: On Tuesday night, alumina rose 0.68% to 3098 yuan per ton, and the main contract reduced positions by more than 4000 lots. The supply of alumina is expected to be in excess, and it is expected to test the support level around 3000 yuan per ton. LME aluminum fell 0.25% to $2608 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum rose 0.05% to 20675 yuan per ton. The downstream purchasing sentiment has improved, and it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and the previous long positions can be held [8]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: On Tuesday, the main contract price of industrial silicon rose 1.63% to 9950 yuan per ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is at a low level. The fundamentals are poor, and the short - term price will mainly fluctuate. The main contract price of polysilicon rose 0.47% to 43795 yuan per ton. The fundamentals are improving, but the inventory digestion is slow, and the short - term disk will mainly fluctuate [9]. Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: On Tuesday night, iron ore rebounded short - term. The monthly supply decreased year - on - year, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased from a high level. It is expected that the rebound will continue, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to participate in the short - term long side [10][11]. - Hot Rolled Coil: On Tuesday night, hot - rolled coil fluctuated short - term. The supply and demand situation is relatively healthy. It is expected that the short - term rebound will continue, and it is recommended to participate in the short - term long side [12]. - Coking Coal and Coke: On Tuesday night, coking coal fluctuated weakly, and coke fluctuated. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the demand for coke has increased marginally. The upside pressure on the disk still exists, and short - term operations are recommended [13]. - Rebar: On Tuesday night, rebar fluctuated. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand has recovered but has not reached the level of the same period last year. The disk has stopped falling, and it is expected to fluctuate. Short - term operations are recommended [14]. Building Materials - Glass and Soda Ash: On Tuesday night, the main contract price of glass rose 1.45% to 1257 yuan per ton. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The fundamentals are poor, and the disk has high volatility. It is recommended to wait and see. The main contract price of soda ash rose 0.63% to 1446 yuan per ton. The supply has decreased, and the demand is relatively stable. The fundamentals are weak, and the disk will mainly fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [15][17]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans and Related Products: CBOT soybeans continued to fall due to expected bumper harvests in South America and decreased Chinese demand. CBOT soybean meal rebounded slightly at a low level. It is recommended to operate within the range. CBOT soybean oil rose due to active arbitrage trading and the rise of international crude oil. BMD palm oil fell due to increased production and weak exports. ICE rapeseed rose slightly. It is recommended that palm oil be short - side operated in the short term, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil be operated within the range [17][18]. - Cotton: US cotton closed lower due to the decline of grains and pre - report caution. Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated slightly at night. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [19]. - Sugar: Raw sugar futures rose due to supply - side support. Zhengzhou sugar strengthened at night. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [20][21]. - Apples: Apple futures fell slightly. The low inventory provides certain support to the disk. It is recommended to take a long - side approach in the short - term [22]. - Paper Pulp: Paper pulp futures fell slightly at night. The weak downstream demand has dragged down the disk. It is recommended to operate within the range [23]. - Pigs: Pig futures fluctuated strongly. The supply is expected to increase in the later period, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7 - 11 reverse spread [24]. - Corn: Corn futures fluctuated narrowly at night. The supply and demand pattern is improving, but there are still potential suppressing factors. It is recommended to operate with a range - bound mindset [25]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: US WTI crude oil rose 0.06% to $69.2 per barrel, and the domestic crude oil main contract SC2505 rose 0.24% to 538.6 yuan per barrel at night. OPEC + may increase production in May, and the US API crude oil inventory decreased. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate and rebound, and it is recommended to operate with a long - side bias [26]. - Rubber: The Shanghai rubber RU2505 contract fell 0.2% to 17100 yuan per ton at night. Thailand's rubber exports increased in February, and some areas in Xishuangbanna have started trial tapping. It is expected that the rubber price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [27]. - Methanol: The main contract of methanol futures fell 0.47% to 2550 yuan per ton at night. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with a range - bound mindset [28]. - Urea: The main contract of urea futures rose 0.70% on Tuesday. The supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is rational. It is recommended to operate with a short - term range - bound mindset [29]. - Asphalt: The main contract of asphalt futures rose 0.25% on Tuesday night. The supply is low, and the demand is weak. The price will follow the fluctuation of crude oil. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [30]. - PTA: TA2505 rose 0.29% at night. The terminal orders are gradually increasing, and the market supply has partially recovered. It is expected to reduce inventory in March - April. It is recommended to take a cautious long - side approach and conduct a positive spread operation between May and September contracts [33]. - Polyolefins: L2505 and PP2505 rose 0.01% at night. The domestic production has decreased, and the market is suppressed by the production - capacity expansion expectation. The downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with a range - bound mindset [34].
国信期货晨会纪要-2025-03-26
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2025-03-26 01:40