电力预期仍在验证，把握当下配置窗口

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [7]. Core Insights - The recent performance of Hong Kong's thermal power stocks has exceeded market expectations, indicating that the sector is currently in an optimal investment window [5][10]. - The weakening coal prices, driven by high port inventories and import impacts, are expected to enhance the performance outlook for thermal power companies [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing corporate accounts receivable issues and the potential for green energy subsidies to become a new policy focus [10]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Since March, Hong Kong's thermal power sector has shown significant outperformance, with Datang Power H shares rising by 11.26%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 11.49 percentage points [5]. - As of March 24, Huaneng International H and Huadian International H have recorded increases of 4.10% and 4.43% respectively, both surpassing the Hang Seng Index [5]. Coal Price Trends - The report notes a consensus on the expectation of weaker coal prices during the seasonal off-peak period from March to May, despite market disagreements on the extent of the decline [10]. - As of March 20, coal inventories at thermal power plants reached 99.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4 million tons, indicating high stock levels [10]. Green Energy Policies - The second quarter is identified as a critical period for green energy policy developments, with recent initiatives aimed at increasing the mandatory consumption of green electricity certificates in various high-energy industries [10]. - The report anticipates that the demand for green certificates could reach a trillion kilowatt-hours, driven by the growth in high-energy consumption sectors and data centers [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests selecting thermal power stocks based on three criteria: limited electricity price declines, companies with capacity growth, and higher dividend yields in Hong Kong stocks [10]. - Specific companies highlighted include Huadian International (A+H) and Huaneng International H, both expected to yield around 6% dividends based on 2025 earnings forecasts [10].