PT Amman Mineral 2024 年铜产/销量同比增长 27%/减少 5%至 17.92 万吨/13.06 万吨，2024 年底铜精矿库存量为 19 万吨

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The report indicates a significant increase in copper production by 27% year-on-year to 395 million pounds (17.92 million tons) in 2024, while sales decreased by 5% to 288 million pounds (13.06 million tons) [1][2] - Gold production is expected to rise by 73% to 802,749 ounces (24.97 tons), with sales increasing by 34% to 611,262 ounces (19.01 tons) [2] - The average realized price for copper is projected to be $4.15 per pound (65,900 yuan per ton), reflecting a 23% increase year-on-year [1] - The adjusted C1 cash cost for copper sales is forecasted at -$3.37 per pound, a significant increase from -$0.73 per pound the previous year, attributed to higher by-product revenues from increased gold sales [1] Production and Financial Performance - Net sales are expected to reach $2.664 billion, a 31% increase compared to the previous year, driven by higher gold sales and favorable pricing for both gold and copper [3] - EBITDA is projected at $1.426 billion, a 40% increase, with a profit margin of 54% [3] - Net income is anticipated to be $642 million, marking a 148% increase, with net profit margin rising from 13% to 24% [3] - Total capital expenditure is expected to grow by 18% to $1.792 billion, primarily due to expansion projects [5] Development Projects - The Elang copper mine is set to begin production after the completion of the Batu Hijau mine's phase 8, with significant increases in reserves reported [6] - The feasibility study for Elang is ongoing and expected to be completed in the first half of 2025 [6] Company Outlook - A decline in metal production is anticipated for 2025 as the company transitions from phase 7 to phase 8 mining operations [7] - The company plans to reserve some concentrate for the smelter, with an estimated inventory of 190,000 tons by the end of 2024 [7] - The smelter project is expected to be mechanically completed by May 31, 2024, with the first production of anode copper already achieved [7][8] - The company is also expanding its processing plant capacity to 85 million tons annually, more than double the current capacity [9]