ACC(600585) 国泰君安·2025-03-26 03:04Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 37.33 CNY, while the current price is 24.29 CNY [1][5][12]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 annual report meets expectations, with significant recovery in gross profit per ton of cement in Q4 2024, reflecting the price increase effects in East China. The reduction in capital expenditures further optimizes cash flow, and dividend expectations are likely to rise [2][12]. - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 91.03 billion CNY, down 35.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.696 billion CNY, down 26.2% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue was 22.879 billion CNY, down 45.53% year-on-year, while net profit was 2.498 billion CNY, up 42.27% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [12]. Financial Summary - Revenue: 2023A: 141.157 billion CNY, 2024A: 91.030 billion CNY, 2025E: 92.609 billion CNY [4][13]. - Net Profit (attributable to shareholders): 2023A: 10.428 billion CNY, 2024A: 7.696 billion CNY, 2025E: 10.403 billion CNY [4][13]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): 2023A: 1.97 CNY, 2024A: 1.45 CNY, 2025E: 1.96 CNY [4][13]. - Return on Equity (ROE): 2023A: 5.6%, 2024A: 4.1%, 2025E: 5.4% [4][13]. - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): 2023A: 12.58, 2024A: 17.04, 2025E: 12.61 [4][13]. Market Position - The company maintained a leading market share in cement delivery rates throughout the year, despite a decline in sales volume in Q4 2024, indicating a stable market position as a leading enterprise [12]. - The average selling price of self-produced cement and clinker in 2024 was 246 CNY per ton, down 28 CNY per ton year-on-year, with a gross profit of 59 CNY per ton, down 9 CNY per ton year-on-year [12]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to significantly reduce capital expenditures, with cash payments for fixed assets and other long-term assets amounting to 11.3 billion CNY in 2024, a substantial reduction compared to previous years. The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% for 2025-2027, indicating an improvement in cash flow and dividend expectations [12].