“关税2.0”的代价

Tariff Implementation - The U.S. will release the results of the "America First Trade Policy" review on April 1, focusing on the U.S.-China trade agreement and tariffs on specific industries like automotive and pharmaceuticals[1] - As of March 25, tariffs already implemented include a 25% tariff on non-USMCA compliant products from Canada and Mexico, a 20% tariff on Chinese goods, and a 25% tariff on global steel and aluminum products[1][2] Economic Impact of Tariffs - In Scenario One, the U.S. GDP is projected to decline by 3.84% over 3-5 years due to tariffs, with China's GDP decreasing by 1.39%, and the EU by 0.22%[3] - In Scenario Two, if tariffs on China increase to 40%, the U.S. GDP could drop by 5.51%, while China's GDP would decrease by 2.07%[4][5] Export and Import Effects - U.S. exports are expected to fall by 2.12% in Scenario One and 3.28% in Scenario Two over 3-5 years[3][4] - U.S. imports may decrease by 8.76% in Scenario One and 11.88% in Scenario Two, with significant declines in imports from China and other regions[5][6] Inflation Trends - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to rise by 2.17% in Scenario One and 3.53% in Scenario Two, while major trading partners may experience deflationary pressures[3][5] Strategic Considerations - The U.S. aims to increase demand for American products and ensure control over critical products through these tariffs, potentially leading to negotiations with certain countries[2][4] - The tariffs are designed to weaken the competitive edge of non-U.S. manufacturing countries, particularly China, while possibly allowing allies to negotiate exemptions[2][4]