交通运输行业专题报告：2025夏航季航班换季计划解读

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed recovery in passenger traffic, with international flights increasing while domestic flights are decreasing, leading to an overall reduction in total flights [5][6] - Domestic flights are seeing significant growth in regional routes due to infrastructure development, while international flights have recovered to 85% of pre-pandemic levels, with improvements in the market share of foreign carriers [4][14] - Major airlines such as Huaxia, Spring Airlines, and Air China have shown notable increases in market share [23][24] - Airport expansions and renovations are facilitating the release of mainline resources, although the overall flight volume is decreasing compared to last year [33][35] - Cargo flights have decreased both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, despite an increase in international flights [44][45] Summary by Sections Passenger Traffic - Total weekly passenger flights for the summer of 2025 are projected at 130,000, reflecting a 15% increase compared to summer 2019 but a 3.3% decrease compared to summer 2024 [6][7] - Domestic flights account for 113,000 weekly flights, up 22.4% from summer 2019 but down 3.8% from summer 2024 [6][7] - International flights are at 15,000 weekly, down 16.4% from summer 2019 but up 4% from summer 2024 [6][7] Domestic Market - The domestic market is experiencing a clear increase in regional flights due to infrastructure investments, with a notable rise in the number of regional flights [9][13] - The distribution of domestic flights shows a significant share for mainline flights, with a 57.1% share for mainline to mainline routes [13] International Market - The international market has seen a recovery rate of 85%, with foreign carriers' market share improving to 42%, recovering to 81% of the levels seen in summer 2019 [19][21] - Regional recovery rates vary, with East Asia at 90% and North America at only 27% [21][22] Airline Performance - Among listed airlines, Huaxia, Spring Airlines, and Air China have significantly increased their flight volumes compared to 2019, with growth rates of 48%, 39%, and 17% respectively [24][29] - Conversely, airlines like Hainan and China Southern have seen declines in their flight volumes [24][29] Airport Developments - Major airports such as Guangzhou and Shanghai have seen flight volume increases exceeding 10% due to renovations and expansions [35] - However, only a few airports maintained positive growth compared to summer 2024, indicating a trend towards capacity saturation at major hubs [35] Cargo Operations - The total weekly cargo flights for summer 2025 are projected at 7,561, reflecting a 66.7% increase compared to summer 2019 but a 4.8% decrease compared to summer 2024 [45][46]