Yin He Zheng Quan·2025-03-26 06:01Macro Insights - The report indicates that the liquidity tightness has passed its peak, but substantial easing may not occur until the second quarter of 2025, with current monetary policy signals being relatively weak [3][4]. - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.85% in the short term, with a low probability of annual-level adjustments unless a strong economic recovery occurs [5]. Fiscal Analysis - In January-February 2025, fiscal revenue growth showed significant divergence, with tax revenue declining by 3.9%, which is considerably lower than the initial budget targets [7][8]. - The strong fiscal expenditure, with a growth rate that outpaces revenue growth, indicates a strong commitment to stabilizing economic growth [7][14]. Machinery Sector - The machinery sector is experiencing a positive trend, with a notable increase in excavator sales, which rose by 52.8% year-on-year in February 2025 [18]. - The report suggests focusing on infrastructure and real estate chains driven by policy support, as well as cyclical general equipment related to domestic demand recovery [20]. Beverage Industry - The high-end liquor market is stabilizing due to rational inventory control by major brands, with a notable rebound in demand expected during festive seasons [22][23]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer demand towards mid-range liquor, driven by increased wedding celebrations and strategic adjustments by companies to focus on regional markets [22][24]. Electronics Sector - The smart glasses market is rapidly growing, with AI functionality becoming a core competitive advantage, as evidenced by Xiaomi's recent launch of its new smart audio glasses [28][30]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in the global smart glasses market, projecting a 139.2% year-on-year growth in 2025, driven by technological advancements and market demand [30][31].