Sinopec Corp.(600028) 东吴证券·2025-03-26 06:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of Sinopec [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to fluctuating oil prices, but it continues to provide high dividends to shareholders [1] - The report adjusts the forecast for net profit for 2025 and 2026 to 546 billion and 603 billion RMB respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 655 billion RMB [7] - The report highlights the integrated advantages of Sinopec's refining and chemical sectors, expecting profitability to improve as oil prices stabilize [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,212.215 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.19% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 60.463 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.87% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted at 0.50 RMB for 2023, decreasing to 0.41 RMB in 2024, before gradually increasing to 0.54 RMB by 2027 [1] - The P/E ratio for A shares is projected to be 11.57 for 2023, increasing to 13.91 in 2024, and then decreasing to 10.69 by 2027 [1] Segment Performance Summary - Upstream exploration and development profits increased by 29% year-on-year to 49.1 billion RMB in 2024, driven by stable oil and gas prices [7] - The refining segment reported a significant profit decline of 67% year-on-year to 6.3 billion RMB in 2024, primarily due to falling product prices and reduced diesel sales [7] - The marketing and distribution segment's profit decreased by 31% year-on-year to 17.7 billion RMB in 2024, attributed to weak diesel consumption and the rise of electric vehicles [7] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 369 billion RMB for 2024, with a payout ratio of approximately 73% [7] - The projected dividend per share is 0.286 RMB, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.3% for A shares and 6.4% for H shares after tax [7]