商贸零售行业数据点评：2025年1-2月社零总额增长4%，促消费政策持续加码

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1][25]. Core Viewpoints - In January and February 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.0%, reaching 83,731 billion yuan, with retail sales excluding automobiles increasing by 4.8% to 76,838 billion yuan [6][1]. - Offline retail formats are generally recovering, with convenience store sales increasing by 9.8% year-on-year [2][12]. - The "old-for-new" policy has driven a sustained increase in home appliance consumption, with a growth rate of 10.9% in January and February 2025 [3][15]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Growth - The total retail sales of consumer goods in January and February 2025 reached 83,731 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [6]. - Retail sales of goods amounted to 73,939 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while catering revenue was 9,792 billion yuan, growing by 4.3% [2][9]. Offline Retail Recovery - The offline retail sector is showing signs of recovery, with significant growth in convenience stores and supermarkets [2][12]. - The growth in retail sales for convenience stores, professional stores, supermarkets, and department stores was 9.8%, 5.4%, 4.0%, and 0.4% respectively [12]. Consumer Trends - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted the sales of home appliances, which have seen a growth rate of 10.9% in early 2025 [3][15]. - The food and oil retail sales have been steadily increasing, maintaining a monthly year-on-year growth rate of around 10% since the second half of 2024 [3][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong recovery potential in offline retail, particularly those with high growth rates in sub-sectors [4][24]. - It highlights the potential of domestic beauty brands, which are gaining consumer recognition and market share, particularly in the context of rational consumption [4][24].