Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, oil prices have stabilized and rebounded due to new sanctions on Iran by the US, OPEC's compensatory production cut plan, and escalating geopolitical tensions. However, in the medium to long term, market sentiment remains weak due to expectations of OPEC's production increase and economic slowdown caused by global trade wars [5]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market maintains a resilient pattern, but its upside potential is restricted. The low - sulfur fuel oil has not shown significant pressure, and the narrowing momentum of the low - sulfur to high - sulfur price spread has weakened [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary Crude Oil - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending March 21 decreased by 4.599 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 1.074 million barrels. On March 25, the SC main contract in the domestic market closed up 0.94% at 538.3 yuan/barrel, and closed at 538.6 yuan/barrel in the night session. In the international market, WTI closed up 0.09 dollars/barrel at 69.20 dollars/barrel, and Brent closed up 0.14 dollars/barrel at 72.51 dollars/barrel [3]. - The US March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 49.8, lower than the expected 51.8, falling below the boom - bust line. The "Black Sea Cease - fire Agreement" was reached in the talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, but the sanctions on Russian energy exports remain unchanged. Israel resumed military operations in Gaza, and the Middle East situation remains tense. On the supply side, Chevron reduced its tanker fleet in Venezuela, and the shipment of heavy crude oil in Venezuelan ports slowed down. On the demand side, China's crude oil processing volume from January to February increased by 2.1% year - on - year, but refining profits are weak. The API data shows that both crude oil and refined oil inventories decreased, supporting the upward trend of oil prices [4]. Fuel Oil - On March 25, FU was reported at 3194 yuan/ton, LU at 3680 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil at 228.7 cents/gallon. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is resilient, but its upside is restricted. The low - sulfur fuel oil has not shown significant pressure, and the narrowing momentum of the low - sulfur to high - sulfur price spread has weakened [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC increased by 0.73% to 538.3 yuan/barrel, WTI increased by 0.06% to 69.2 dollars/barrel, and Brent increased by 0.11% to 72.5 dollars/barrel. - Spot prices: Most crude oil spot prices increased, with Brent increasing by 1.01% to 74.67 dollars/barrel. - Price spreads: The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI all increased, and the SC continuous - to - continuous 3 spread increased by 175.44% [7]. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU increased by 0.57% to 3194 yuan/ton, LU increased by 1.29% to 3680 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil increased by 1.14% to 228.7 cents/gallon. - Spot prices: Some spot prices remained unchanged, while the high - sulfur 180 in East China increased by 1.42% to 5375 yuan/ton. - Price spreads: The China high - sulfur to low - sulfur price spread increased by 6.35% [9]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Inner - market Prices - On March 25, the SC main contract closed up 0.94% at 538.3 yuan/barrel, and closed at 538.6 yuan/barrel in the night session. The domestic Shengli crude oil spot price was 69.49 dollars/barrel, up 0.84% [10]. Outer - market Prices - On March 25, WTI closed up 0.09 dollars/barrel at 69.20 dollars/barrel, and Brent closed up 0.14 dollars/barrel at 72.51 dollars/barrel. The Brent crude oil spot price increased by 1.01% to 74.67 dollars/barrel, and the Dubai and Oman crude oil spot prices increased by 0.26% to 73.63 dollars/barrel [11]. Macroeconomics - The US March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 49.8, falling below the boom - bust line. The "Black Sea Cease - fire Agreement" was reached, but the sanctions on Russian energy exports remain unchanged. Israel resumed military operations in Gaza, and the Middle East situation remains tense [12]. Supply - OPEC+ requires seven member countries to further cut production. Kazakhstan's oil production in March reached a record high, exceeding the quota by 26.7%. OPEC+ may increase production in May and force some members to cut production to compensate for over - production. Chevron reduced its tanker fleet in Venezuela, and the shipment of heavy crude oil slowed down. Iraq plans to increase oil production capacity to over 6 million barrels per day by 2029. The number of US oil rigs decreased by 1 to 486 [13][14][15]. Demand - China's crude oil processing volume from January to February increased by 2.1% year - on - year, mainly due to the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical refinery and the increase in refined oil demand during the Spring Festival, but refining profits are weak [16]. Inventory - The API data shows that the US crude oil inventory decreased by 4.599 million barrels for the week ending March 21, and the refined oil inventory also decreased, supporting the upward trend of oil prices [17]. Market Information - The US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was 92.9, lower than the previous value of 100.1. The number of new home sales in the US in February was 676,000. The US March Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was - 4. The oil loading volume at Russian western ports in April increased by 5% compared to March. A Fed official said the current policy is still restrictive. The Yemeni Houthi rebels are in conflict with the US aircraft carrier [18]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and fuel oil prices and spreads, to visually present the market trends of the oil and fuel oil industries [19][22][24][50]
原油燃料油日报：API超预期大幅去库，油价继续走高-2025-03-26
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-03-26 08:01