碳酸锂反弹空间受明显压制，新仓单注册需关注后续基差修复

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The rebound space of lithium carbonate is significantly suppressed, and the subsequent basis repair needs to be monitored for new warrant registrations. The main contradiction of oversupply still restricts the absolute price performance of lithium carbonate futures [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - On March 24, the lithium carbonate futures fluctuated and rebounded. The main contract LC2505 closed at 73,800 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate remained stable [1] - In the week of March 21, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 17,946 tons, a 2.47% decrease from the previous week. As of the week of March 14, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 126,399 tons, a 2.24% increase. The weekly output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 13.54 GWh, a 3.28% increase [1] - From March 1 - 16, the retail sales of the new energy vehicle market increased by 41% year - on - year and 63% month - on - month. The wholesale of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers increased by 43% year - on - year and 64% month - on - month [1] 2. Lithium Carbonate Price Monitoring - Futures Data: The main contract price of lithium carbonate rose from 73,720 yuan/ton on March 24 to 73,800 yuan/ton on March 25, an increase of 0.11%. The basis decreased from 980 yuan/ton to 900 yuan/ton. The main monthly spread (05 - 07) increased from - 240 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton. The cancellation monthly spread (07 - 08) increased from - 1400 yuan/ton to - 1300 yuan/ton. The main contract positions decreased by 4.10%, and the trading volume increased by 9.31%. The number of lithium carbonate futures warrants decreased by 1.66% [3] - Market Price Data: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.13% from March 24 to March 25. The market prices of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The price of power ternary materials increased by 0.04%, and the price of power lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged [5] - Weekly Data: From March 14 to March 21, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased by 3.05%. The weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.47%. The output of lithium iron phosphate batteries increased by 3.28%. The inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 2.24%. The price of some battery cells changed slightly [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot Market Quotation: On March 25, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,200 - 75,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 74,100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - Downstream Consumption: From March 1 - 16, the retail sales of the national passenger car new energy market were 427,000 vehicles, a 41% year - on - year increase and a 63% month - on - month increase. The wholesale was 422,000 vehicles, a 43% year - on - year increase and a 64% month - on - month increase [7] - Industry News: Multiple events occurred, including a company obtaining a mining license, a company terminating a lithium mine development project, new lithium ore discoveries in China, mine expansions, government support for new energy vehicles, and a company's acquisition of a lithium project stake [8][9][10] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report presents multiple charts related to lithium carbonate futures, prices of various lithium - related products, production, inventory, and battery cell prices, which visually display the trends and relationships of relevant data [11][20][27]