Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][40]. Core Views - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 3% in 2024, reaching 3.65 billion yuan, while net profit is projected to decline by 13.1% to 460 million yuan. The gross margin is expected to decrease by 0.5 percentage points to 47.7% due to one-time compensation payments to distributors and reduced inventory provisions [1][3]. - The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) transformation is temporarily suppressing performance, but the new retail channels are showing strong growth, particularly in the light business series, which is expected to grow by 27.2% due to expansion in outlet channels and effective live-streaming sales [2][32]. - The management has set a target for total sales growth of no less than 10% for 2025, with new retail business expected to achieve over 15% growth [3][32]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of 3.65 billion yuan, with a net profit of 460 million yuan, reflecting a 3% increase in revenue and a 13.1% decrease in net profit compared to 2023 [4][35]. - The gross margin is projected to decline to 47.7%, while the net profit margin is expected to decrease to 12.6% [1][4]. Sales and Distribution - The main series revenue is expected to decline by 3% due to the DTC model's implementation, while the light business series is projected to grow significantly [2][32]. - Online new retail channels are expected to grow by 24%, indicating a strong focus on platforms like Douyin and the addition of new platforms such as Pinduoduo and Dewu [2][32]. Future Outlook - The company aims to increase its store count by 100 and expand into Southeast Asia, with plans to open its first store in Malaysia in the first half of 2025 [3][32]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are adjusted to 500 million, 540 million, and 575 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 9.0%, 7.4%, and 6.5% [3][32].
中国利郎（01234）：DTC转型拖累业绩，新零售渠道表现亮眼