宏观经济专题研究：招打破通缩负循环

Group 1: Economic Overview - In 2024, China's GDP growth target of 5.0% was achieved, with final consumption contributing 2.2 percentage points, capital formation contributing 1.3 percentage points, and net exports contributing 1.5 percentage points[10] - Net exports reached a historical high contribution rate to GDP since 1998, but are expected to face downward pressure due to volatility and external uncertainties[10] - Domestic consumption growth in 2024 was notably weak, with final consumption's contribution to GDP dropping to 2.2 percentage points, matching the average during the pandemic[11] Group 2: Negative Economic Cycle - The economy is trapped in a negative cycle characterized by "industrial deflation - service sector contraction - demand decline," which has persisted since 2022[22] - Industrial prices have been declining for over two years, impacting the service sector and leading to reduced consumer demand and income[29] - The service sector, which is crucial for employment, has been adversely affected, further suppressing consumer spending and exacerbating industrial deflation pressures[22] Group 3: Proposed Solutions for 2025 - The government plans to implement an active fiscal expansion policy, with an expected increase in government debt by CNY 11.86 trillion, up CNY 2.9 trillion from the previous year[35] - A mechanism for exiting inefficient industrial capacities will be established to alleviate price competition and redirect resources to the service sector[37] - Direct fiscal support for residents will be enhanced, including CNY 300 billion in special bonds for consumption upgrades and measures to improve wage growth for public sector employees[41] Group 4: Economic Forecasts - Domestic consumption growth is expected to recover gradually in 2025, with a more pronounced increase anticipated in the second half of the year[47] - The second quarter of 2025 may see a temporary low point in GDP growth, influenced by the fading "export rush" effect and potential declines in key economic indicators[48] - Risks include delayed policy adjustments and volatility in overseas markets, which could impact economic stability[50]