交通运输行业快评报告：1-2月快递行业数据跟踪点评

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expectation of over 10% relative increase in the industry index compared to the market in the next six months [7]. Core Insights - Online retail demand is expected to accelerate under domestic consumption stimulus policies, supported by trends towards smaller packages, ensuring a certain level of growth in industry volume. However, the price competition in the industry is unlikely to change in the short term, and the potential for price declines is limited due to cost constraints and regulatory guidance. Current valuations of major industry players are at relatively low historical levels, suggesting opportunities for valuation recovery [1][2]. Summary by Sections Online Retail Performance - In January-February 2025, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 1.86 trillion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, which is a decline of 1.5 percentage points compared to 2024. This accounted for 22.30% of total retail sales of consumer goods, down 4.5 percentage points from 2024 [2]. Express Delivery Volume and Revenue - The express delivery business revenue for January-February was 221.04 billion yuan, up 11.20% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points compared to 2024. The business volume reached 28.48 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 22.40%, with a slight growth of 0.9 percentage points compared to 2024. The average price per piece was 7.76 yuan, further declining compared to 2024 [2]. Market Concentration and Pricing Trends - The market concentration index (CR8) for express delivery services reached 87.1% in February, indicating further concentration in the market. Major listed companies such as SF Express, Yunda, YTO Express, and Shentong Express reported business volumes of 2.246 billion, 3.823 billion, 4.114 billion, and 3.722 billion pieces respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.7%, 26.5%, 21.3%, and 30.6%. The average prices per piece for these companies were 15.1, 1.99, 2.34, and 2.05 yuan respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 9.6%, 12.5%, 5.5%, and 7.3% [3].