CM BANK(600036) 中信建投·2025-03-26 09:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see a narrowing decline in revenue for 2024, with profit growth returning to positive territory. The decline in net interest margin is better than that of peers [1][20] - Wealth management capabilities are strong, with steady growth in retail customer base. Overall asset quality remains stable, although risks in retail loans are still emerging [1][20] - For 2025, retail demand is anticipated to marginally improve, with plans to increase loan growth to 7%-8%. While net interest margin pressure persists, the decline is expected to narrow, and fee income is projected to perform better than last year [1][20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 337.49 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.5% year-on-year, significantly better than the 2.9% decline in the first three quarters [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 1.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [4] - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.95%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1 basis point [2][13] Asset Quality - The company’s asset quality appears stable, but the non-performing loan generation rate continues to rise, particularly in retail loans [13][17] - The provision coverage ratio decreased to 411.98%, down 20.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating a slight release of provisions to support profit growth [13][19] Wealth Management and Customer Growth - Wealth management income decreased by 21% in 2024, but the retail customer base grew steadily, reaching 210 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [18][28] - The total retail AUM reached 14.93 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [18][28] Capital Adequacy and Dividend Policy - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio rose to 14.86%, indicating strong internal growth capacity and low refinancing risk [19] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 35.3%, slightly up from the previous year, suggesting sustainable high dividend returns [19][22] Future Outlook - The company plans for a loan growth of 7%-8% in 2025, with expectations of a challenging environment for revenue growth due to recent adjustments in the bond market affecting non-interest income [10][20] - The report emphasizes the company's robust asset quality and solid provisioning base, projecting continued profit growth and leading ROE in the industry [20][22]