冠通研究：基本面矛盾不显著，短期铁矿震荡为主

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental contradictions of iron ore are not significant, and it will mainly fluctuate in the short term. The supply - side pressure of iron ore is gradually rising, while the demand still has room for short - term growth, but the pressure on port inventory depletion may gradually emerge. The recent improvement in the trading atmosphere of finished products has boosted market sentiment. Although the demand side still supports the ore price to some extent, the disturbance of crude steel production cuts has increased. The 2505 contract is expected to operate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, the black series opened higher and then mainly fluctuated. The closing price center of iron ore moved slightly upward. The supply - side pressure of iron ore is gradually rising, and the demand still has room for short - term growth. The recent improvement in the trading atmosphere of finished products has boosted market sentiment. The demand side still supports the ore price, but the disturbance of crude steel production cuts has increased. The 2505 contract is expected to operate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton [1]. Futures Market - The main iron ore I2505 contract opened lower and then fluctuated strongly, closing at 780 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.19%. The trading volume was 239,500 lots, and the open interest was 411,600 lots, a decrease of 11,360 lots. The top 20 long - position holders held 261,313 lots, a decrease of 9,754 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders held 280,855 lots, a decrease of 1,426 lots [2][4]. Fundamental Tracking - From March 17th to March 23rd, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,084,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 221,200 tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 1,878,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,400 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,492,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45,800 tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 636,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 156,000 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,639,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 355,400 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,510,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 365,800 tons. As of March 21st, the daily average output and capacity utilization rate of iron ore concentrates at 126 domestic mines were 41,110 tons and 65.17% respectively, a month - on - month increase of 430 tons per day and 0.69 percentage points [5]. - In terms of fundamentals, the shipment of foreign mines has increased slightly this period, with Brazil contributing the main increment, and the shipment is at a relatively high level. The arrival volume has increased slightly from a high level, and it is expected to remain at a medium - to - high level. The iron ore price has been above the cost line of non - mainstream mines, and the squeezing effect on non - mainstream mine shipments is limited. The supply will remain loose in the long - term. On the demand side, the growth rate of molten iron has increased significantly. The steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and the resumption of production is expected to continue, but the growth rate of molten iron may slow down. In terms of inventory, the arrival volume has declined from a high level, and downstream steel mills replenish inventory at low prices, resulting in small fluctuations in port inventory. Steel mills still maintain a low - inventory strategy, and high inventory will limit the upside space of ore prices in the long - term [6].