Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The stagflation logic and geopolitical risks provide "double insurance" for precious metals, with a medium - term upward trend. Short - term fluctuations can be seen as allocation opportunities [1]. - For copper, although there is fundamental support during the consumption season, attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side and the actual implementation of Trump's tariff policy [3]. - Alumina is expected to oscillate around 3000 yuan/ton, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [4][5]. - Industrial silicon has a poor fundamental situation and is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, while polysilicon has a improving fundamental situation but slow inventory digestion, with short - term disk oscillation [6]. - Iron ore and hot - rolled coils are expected to continue to rebound in the short term, but the upward space is limited [8][9]. - Glass and soda ash have weak fundamentals and are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [10][11]. - For beans, the cost of soybean meal has declined, and there is a possibility of weakening after the main contract breaks through 2850 [11]. - Among oils and fats, rapeseed oil is relatively strong, while palm oil is weak [13]. - Zheng cotton and Zheng sugar are recommended for short - term trading [14][15]. - Apple futures are recommended to be treated with a bullish - oscillating mindset due to low inventory [16]. - Pulp is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset due to weak downstream demand [17][18]. - The pig market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the later period, and attention should be paid to the 7 - 11 reverse spread [19]. - Corn is expected to oscillate in the future, and an oscillating mindset is recommended for operation [20]. - Crude oil is expected to continue to oscillate and rebound in the short term, and a bullish - oscillating mindset is recommended for operation [21]. - Rubber is expected to oscillate in the short term, and an oscillating mindset is recommended for operation [23]. - Methanol is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [24]. - Urea is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [25]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate, and short - term trading is recommended [26]. - PTA is recommended to be treated with a cautious long - at - low mindset and hold the 5/9 positive spread [27]. - Polyolefins are recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [28]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - On Wednesday, domestic gold and silver continued to be strong. The main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.47% to 709.02 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 1.70% to 8366 yuan/kilogram [1]. - The sharp drop in the US consumer confidence index in March and Trump's tariff strategy strengthened the anti - risk attribute of precious metals [1]. Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper rose, breaking through the 83000 yuan/ton pressure level during the session. The spot price increased by 1090 yuan/ton to 82655 yuan/ton, but market trading was poor [3]. - The possible US tariff on imported copper may lead to an accelerated flow of copper resources to the US market, and the market is bullish, but attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side [3]. Alumina and Aluminum - Alumina oscillated strongly on Wednesday. The main contract AO2505 reduced positions by more than 10,000 lots. The spot price dropped to 3139 yuan/ton. A Guizhou enterprise's maintenance will relieve supply pressure, but the supply - demand surplus still suppresses prices [4]. - Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly on Wednesday, with the main contract reducing positions by more than 5000 lots. The spot price in different regions showed different trends. The supply - demand fundamentals are stable, but high profits limit upward breakthroughs [5]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The main contract of industrial silicon fell 1.31% to 9780 yuan/ton on Wednesday. The supply increased, while the demand remained low, with a poor fundamental situation [6]. - The main contract of polysilicon fell 0.26% to 43640 yuan/ton on Wednesday. The supply was at a low level, and the downstream demand was improving, but inventory digestion was slow [6]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore rebounded short - term. The 05 contract rose 0.19% to 780.0. Supply decreased year - on - year, and demand increased with the approaching peak season. It is expected to continue to rebound with limited upward space [8]. Hot - Rolled Coils - On Wednesday, hot - rolled coils oscillated short - term. The 05 contract rose 0.12% to 3386. The supply - demand situation was healthy, but the inventory pressure of rebar increased. It is expected to continue to rebound with limited space [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - The main contract of glass fell 0.81% to 1229 yuan/ton on Wednesday. Supply decreased, demand was weak, and the 05 contract's position issue caused price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and consider the 5 - 9 reverse spread [10]. - The main contract of soda ash fell 0.7% to 1427 yuan/ton on Wednesday. Supply decreased, downstream demand was weak, and inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [11]. Beans - On Wednesday, soybean meal in Dalian fell sharply. CBOT soybeans continued to decline. Domestic oil mills entered the shutdown mode, and the cost of soybean meal decreased. The main contract breaking through 2850 may lead to a weakening trend [11]. Oils and Fats - On Wednesday, oil futures showed a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil was strong, while palm oil and soybean oil in Dalian oscillated downward. The price of Malaysian palm oil was under pressure due to weak exports [13]. Cotton - On Wednesday, Zheng cotton oscillated slightly. The spot price was almost unchanged. The downstream start - up rate increased, but consumption was still below expectations. Short - term trading is recommended [14]. Sugar - On Wednesday, Zheng sugar rebounded following the external market. The spot price increased. The external market was strong, and the domestic supply pressure was not large. Short - term trading is recommended [15]. Apples - On Wednesday, apple futures rose significantly. The main contract AP2505 rose more than 6%. Low inventory supported the price, and a bullish - oscillating mindset is recommended [16]. Pulp - On Wednesday, pulp futures fell slightly. The main contract SP2505 oscillated weakly. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, and cost provided some support. An oscillating mindset is recommended [17][18]. Pigs - On Wednesday, pig futures oscillated strongly. The main contract LH05 rose 0.37%. The spot price was weakly stable. The supply is expected to increase in the later period, and the market is expected to be weakly oscillating. Attention should be paid to the 7 - 11 reverse spread [19]. Corn - On Wednesday, corn futures ran weakly. The main contract C2505 fell 0.40%. The spot price oscillated. The supply - demand pattern is improving, but there are still potential suppressing factors. An oscillating mindset is recommended [20]. Crude Oil - On Wednesday, crude oil prices rebounded slightly. OPEC+ plans to cut production, the US sanctions on Iran and tariff on Venezuela may affect supply, and the API inventory decreased. It is expected to continue to oscillate and rebound [21]. Rubber - On Wednesday, Shanghai rubber oscillated and fell slightly. Thai rubber exports increased in February, and the domestic supply and demand situation was uncertain. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [23]. Methanol - On Wednesday, the main contract of methanol fell 0.3%, reducing positions by 1.3 million lots. The spot price was stable. Supply may increase, and demand was general. An oscillating mindset is recommended [24]. Urea - On Wednesday, the main contract of urea rose 1.72%. The spot price was stable. With the arrival of the spring plowing season, demand was strong. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [25]. Asphalt - On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt rose 0.36%. The spot price in different regions showed different trends. Supply was at a low level, and demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate, and short - term trading is recommended [26]. PTA - On Wednesday, TA2505 rose 1.07%. The downstream demand was gradually recovering, and the market was likely to continue to destock. Cost support was strengthening. A cautious long - at - low mindset and holding the 5/9 positive spread are recommended [27]. Polyolefins - On Wednesday, plastic 2505 fell 0.45%, and PP2505 rose 0.03%. Domestic supply was sufficient, and downstream demand changed little. The spot price was weakly running. An oscillating mindset is recommended [28].
国信期货日评汇总-2025-03-26
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2025-03-26 10:10