工需托底，价格易涨难跌

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The industrial demand provides a bottom - support, and there is an expected increase in agricultural demand. The price of urea is likely to rise and difficult to fall. However, it should be noted that the downstream may have limited acceptance of high prices. The market is in a state of high - level consolidation with insufficient upward momentum, waiting for new drivers [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea main contract opened flat, declined during the session, and rose at the end of the session. Upstream factory quotes were mainly stable. After some factories lowered prices, the market trading atmosphere improved, and prices increased. The current market price continues to rise [1]. - On the supply side, Shandong Union resumed production today, and some factories still have maintenance plans this week. The daily output is expected to remain around 200,000 tons [1]. - On the demand side, downstream buyers follow the "buy - on - rising" mentality. Enterprises have good advance orders. Although the number of days of pre - sale orders decreased slightly this period, it is still at a medium - to - high level in the same period. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants is high, supporting the futures price. The summer fertilizer sales are smooth, and nitrogen - containing compound fertilizers are the main products in this season. There is an expected increase in agricultural demand as rice fertilization for the April planting season is approaching [1]. - This week, the inventory continued to decline, and the decline rate in the past two periods has increased [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main 2505 contract opened at 1,890 yuan/ton, declined during the session, and finally rose at the end of the session to close at 1,890 yuan/ton, forming a positive candlestick. The daily trading volume increased, and the open interest was 253,857 lots (+717 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 8,423 lots, and short positions increased by 8,509 lots. Haitong Futures' net long positions increased by 2,172 lots, Haizheng Futures' net long positions increased by 1,469 lots, CITIC Futures' net short positions increased by 8,266 lots, and Dongwu Futures' net short positions decreased by 2,758 lots [2]. - On March 26, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5,561, a decrease of 125 from the previous trading day. Among them, Ningling Stanley decreased by 25, and Jiasili Pingyuan decreased by 100 [2]. Spot - Today, the quotes of upstream factories across the country fluctuated slightly. After the trading atmosphere improved and the futures market rose, some factories that had previously lowered prices raised their prices. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1,840 - 1,880 yuan/ton. The price of urea factories in Shanxi increased slightly today. The price of small - particle urea in some factories in the province reached about 1,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the price of large - particle urea rose to 1,850 - 1,860 yuan/ton, with the lower end up about 40 yuan/ton compared to yesterday [4]. Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable, while the futures closing price increased. Based on the Shandong region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day. The basis of the May contract was 20 yuan/ton (-6 yuan/ton) [5]. Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on March 26, 2025, the national daily urea output was 195,900 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 85.95% [9]. Enterprise Inventory Data - According to Longzhong Information, as of March 26, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 867,800 tons, a decrease of 170,200 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 16.40% [12]. Pre - sale Order Days - According to Longzhong Information, as of March 26, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.81 days, a decrease of 0.37 days from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.15% [12].