COSL(601808) 申万宏源证券·2025-03-26 10:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 showed a revenue of 48.302 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit of 3.137 billion yuan, up 4.1% year-on-year. The fourth quarter results met expectations despite a decline in net profit [9] - The drilling platform utilization rate decreased due to weather impacts, but daily rates increased, indicating potential for future growth in drilling operations [9] - The oilfield technology services segment remains a stable revenue source, contributing 84% of total gross profit, with successful marketization of self-developed technologies [9] - The shipbuilding segment saw significant growth, with operating days increasing by 33.8% year-on-year, while the geophysical segment also experienced a rise in project volume [9] - Global offshore oil and gas capital expenditure growth is slowing, but the company’s core client, CNOOC, is expected to maintain high capital expenditure levels, providing strong support for the company's performance [9] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2026 has been adjusted downwards due to the slowing growth in global offshore oil and gas capital expenditure, with new profit estimates of 3.7 billion and 4.5 billion yuan respectively [9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 44.109 billion yuan in 2023 to 63.140 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.5% [8] - Net profit is expected to increase from 3.013 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.394 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of about 20.9% [8] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 15.9% in 2023 to 17.6% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [8]