Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "Oscillating operation", and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position in the near term [1] Core Viewpoints - The asphalt supply side shows a decline in the start - up rate, while the downstream start - up rate is rebounding slowly. Although the inventory is at a low level and is expected to continue to accumulate, considering factors such as geopolitical impacts on crude oil supply, it is advisable to try long positions with a light position in the near term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The asphalt start - up rate last week decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 27.2% month - on - month, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and is close to the lowest level in recent years. The expected production in March is 238.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.8 million tons or 13.2%. The downstream start - up rate is rebounding, but the road asphalt start - up rate is still low. The government plans to increase bond issuance, and attention should be paid to the progress of physical work volume. The national shipment volume increased by 25.99% month - on - month to 229,300 tons but is still at a low level. The refinery inventory is at a low level but is expected to continue to accumulate. Due to geopolitical factors affecting crude oil supply, it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The asphalt futures 2506 contract rose 0.36% to 3,627 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,625 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,650 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 925 to 224,628 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 3,640 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract fell to 13 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the start - up rate decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 27.2% month - on - month. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 10.80% year - on - year. From January to February 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, while the infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6% year - on - year. As of the week of March 21, the downstream start - up rate continued to rebound, but the road asphalt start - up rate was still low. The government plans to implement a more active fiscal policy and increase bond issuance [4] Inventory - As of the week of March 21, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points to 20.7% compared with the week of March 14, and is still at the lowest level in recent years [5]
【冠通研究】沥青：震荡运行
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-03-26 11:26