Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [2][19]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance in the second half of 2024, with revenue and adjusted net profit projected to grow by 9.6% and 1.8% year-on-year, respectively. Revenue growth excluding COVID-related projects is anticipated to be 13.1% [6][21]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 25.00, reflecting a potential downside of 3.5% from the current price of HKD 25.90 [1][19]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 17,034 million - 2024: RMB 18,675 million (11.6% growth) - 2025E: RMB 21,417 million (14.7% growth) - 2026E: RMB 25,299 million (18.1% growth) - 2027E: RMB 28,918 million (14.3% growth) [5][21]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 3,837 million - 2024: RMB 4,097 million - 2025E: RMB 5,051 million (43.7% growth) - 2026E: RMB 6,580 million (30.3% growth) - 2027E: RMB 7,788 million (18.4% growth) [5][21]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 106.37 billion, with a year-to-date stock price change of 47.49% [4][21]. Business Performance - The company added 151 comprehensive projects in the year, with 90 in the second half and 61 in the first half of 2024. The CRDMO industry is showing signs of improvement [6][21]. - The backlog of uncompleted orders reached USD 18.5 billion at the end of 2024, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, primarily due to the termination of a Merck vaccine project [6][21]. - The management has guided for a revenue growth of 12-15% in 2025, driven by existing orders and pipeline conversions [6][21]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21 times the 2025 earnings and a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 1.1 [6][21]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.18, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 20.5 [5][21]. Market Context - The biotechnology financing environment is showing signs of recovery, which is expected to support the company's growth trajectory [11][21]. - The company operates in a competitive landscape, with external uncertainties still present, making the current valuation reasonable [6][21].
药明生物：2H24业绩复苏，RDM三大业务端边际改善确定性较强，上调目标价-20250326