ACC(600585) 华龙证券·2025-03-26 12:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [3] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's profitability is expected to improve as the industry stabilizes, despite a significant decline in revenue and profit in 2024 due to a downturn in the cement market and real estate sector [3][5] - The cement industry is anticipated to experience a "bottoming out" and recovery in 2025, supported by infrastructure demand and government efforts to stabilize the real estate market [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 91.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 35.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.70 billion yuan, down 26.19% year-on-year [3][5] - The company's total cement and clinker sales volume in 2024 was 27.1 million tons, a decrease of 7.46% compared to the previous year [5] Industry Outlook - The cement industry in 2024 faced significant challenges, with a 10.6% year-on-year decline in real estate investment leading to a 9.5% drop in national cement production [5] - The report forecasts a recovery in the cement industry in 2025, driven by continued demand from infrastructure projects and stricter supply-side reforms [5][6] Growth Projections - The company is expected to focus on its core cement business and international expansion, with projected revenue growth rates of 2.48%, 7.52%, and 6.05% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6] - Estimated revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 93.29 billion yuan, 100.30 billion yuan, and 106.36 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 9.87 billion yuan, 10.73 billion yuan, and 11.02 billion yuan [6][7] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the company are projected to be 13.0, 12.0, and 11.7 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, compared to the average P/E of 14.7 for comparable companies [6][8]