日本消费行业2月跟踪报告：软饮料持续承压，百货商店增速放缓

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Japanese consumer confidence index unexpectedly dropped to 35.0 in February, marking a two-year low, amid concerns over inflation and stagnant wage growth [6] - The core CPI in Japan rose by 3.0% year-on-year in February, driven primarily by food price increases, while service prices showed moderate growth reflecting a recovery in consumer demand [8] - Department store sales in Japan decreased by 1.5% year-on-year in February, the lowest monthly growth since 2022, although duty-free sales continued to grow strongly [12] Macroeconomic Summary - The consumer confidence index fell to 35.0, with indicators for living standards, income growth, and willingness to purchase durable goods declining [6] - Despite nominal wages increasing for 37 consecutive months, real wages fell by 1.8% year-on-year in January due to rising prices and fewer bonuses [6] - The PPI increased by 4.0% year-on-year in February, with agricultural and forestry products seeing a significant price rise of 39.4% [10] Industry Summary - Soft drink demand continues to face pressure, with major brands like Suntory and Asahi reporting year-on-year sales declines of 10% and 6%, respectively [18] - Department store sales growth has slowed, with a notable decrease in sales attributed to adverse weather conditions and fewer operating days in February [12][35] - The food and beverage retail sales in January reached approximately 34,980 billion yen, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [15] Essential Company Performance - PPIH reported a year-on-year same-store sales increase of 5.2%, while Aeon saw a slight decline of 0.3% [15] - Convenience store sales at 711 Japan increased by 0.4%, with a stable customer flow [15] - Major restaurant chains like Saizeriya and Skylark reported significant same-store sales growth of 16.5% and 10.6%, respectively, despite the adverse weather [27] Stock Market Overview - The consumer sector saw most stocks decline in February, with the service and retail sectors experiencing the largest drops of 8.6% and 8.2%, respectively [44]