1-2月财政数据点评：开年财政的四个特征和启示

Group 1: Fiscal Characteristics - The fiscal revenue for January-February decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, contrasting with a 24.3% increase in December[2] - The fiscal expenditure for January-February increased by 2.9% year-on-year, compared to a 10.6% increase in December[2] - The broad fiscal deficit reached 621.7 billion, marking the highest level for the start of the year in recent years[4] Group 2: Implications of Fiscal Data - The "low income" scenario may reinforce a "technology stock-friendly" fiscal policy throughout the year[3] - The emergence of "double deficits" indicates a strong subjective willingness to stimulate fiscal policy[4] - The expenditure structure shows a focus on technology (+10.6%) and social welfare, while infrastructure spending is under pressure (e.g., urban and rural community spending down by 6.6%)[5] Group 3: Debt Issuance Trends - The issuance of deficit bonds has accelerated, with net financing of government bonds reaching nearly 1.5 trillion, completing 30.2% of the annual target, the highest in recent years[7] - The issuance of new special bonds has been slower, with only 828.1 billion issued in Q1, completing 18.4% of the annual target[8] - There are plans for increased issuance of special bonds in Q2, which may boost investment and physical output[8]