资产配置日报：期待降准-2025-03-26

Market Overview - On March 26, the stock market showed mixed results with small-cap stocks experiencing a strong recovery; the bond market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut strengthened, leading to a decline in long-term interest rates [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 500 saw slight declines of 0.04%, 0.33%, and 0.14% respectively, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.01% [2] - The bond market saw a decrease in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds by 2.9 basis points and 3.8 basis points to 1.78% and 1.99% respectively [2] Commodity Performance - Copper prices remain a focal point, with expectations of potential tariffs on imported copper in the U.S.; New York copper rose by 1.29% and Shanghai copper by 0.34% [3] - Precious metals also performed strongly, with Shanghai gold and silver increasing by 0.47% and 1.70% respectively [3] - The black commodity sector showed mixed results, with rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, and asphalt rising slightly, while coking coal fell by 0.05% [3] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is currently trading on two main expectations: the potential for a renewed influx of capital and the anticipation of an RRR cut [4] - The 7-year government bond performed best among interest rate bonds, with some older bonds seeing a drop in yield by up to 4 basis points [4] - The market is also considering the implications of an RRR cut, with expectations that it may occur around the end of the quarter due to ongoing pressures from government bond issuances [4] Equity Market Dynamics - The equity market experienced a decrease in trading volume, with total turnover at 1.18 trillion yuan, down by 107.3 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - Small-cap stocks showed strength, with the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 indices rising by 0.38% and 2.42% respectively, although trading volumes for these indices also decreased [6] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase following a high-level retreat, with small-cap stocks rebounding after significant corrections [8] Sector Performance - The robotics sector performed notably well, with the robotics index rising by 1.42% and a significant number of stocks reaching their daily limit up [7] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both saw increases of 0.60% and 1.01% respectively, with notable rebounds in major stocks like Xiaomi and JD.com [7] Future Outlook - The market is in a state of consolidation after a high-level retreat, with ongoing monitoring of volume and price changes [8] - If the market rebounds from late March to early April without a significant increase in trading volume, it may indicate that the upward trend is not yet solidified [8] - Historical trends suggest that April tends to favor large-cap stocks, and this year may follow a similar pattern influenced by tariff considerations and earnings announcements [8]