Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The stock index is likely to experience short - term shock adjustment after continuous upward oscillations, with a short - term weakening trend in operation [2]. - Iron ore should be viewed with a shock mindset [5]. - Glass should be viewed with a shock mindset, despite improved spot sales and optimistic market sentiment, actual demand remains to be observed [8]. - Alumina should be viewed with a slightly bullish shock mindset as the current price is close to the cost line [11]. - Caustic soda is expected to bottom out and rebound as it may face a short - term supply - demand mismatch from late March to April [14]. - Soybean No.1 will experience low - level shock consolidation after a short - term sharp decline [17]. - Rapeseed oil will be in a short - term shock pattern [20]. Industry - Specific Summaries Stock Index - After continuous upward oscillations, it has entered a "fatigued" state. Fundamentally, listed companies are in the intensive annual report disclosure period, and some funds seek risk - avoidance. Technically, the MACD has a high - level death cross, indicating a need for further adjustment [2]. Iron Ore - It closed with a small positive line today. There is a large long - term supply intensity, and attention should be paid to the actual start of downstream demand as the traditional peak season approaches. Technically, the indicators show a double death cross [5][6]. Glass - Recently, some production lines have been cold - repaired again, and spot sales have improved. With the influence of policies, market sentiment is optimistic, but actual demand remains to be observed. Technically, the indicators show a double golden cross, and it closed with a negative line today [8]. Alumina - The average production cost in the alumina industry is 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the current price is close to the cost line [11]. Caustic Soda - With strong exports, many future maintenance expectations, and a strong basis, the futures 05 contract may be oversold. Alumina device production is going smoothly, and short - term demand for caustic soda is not bad. From late March to April, there will be a peak of caustic soda device maintenance, and it may face a short - term supply - demand mismatch [14]. Soybean No.1 - The成交 rate of a 160,000 - ton soybean auction yesterday was low. There are rumors that the customs clearance time for imported soybeans has been accelerated, and the small amount of soybeans from grass - roots farmers supports the soybean price. Technically, the MACD and short - term moving averages show a death cross [17]. Rapeseed Oil - China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and meal. After the short - term emotional release, the market returns to the supply - demand situation, and domestic inventory pressure remains high. Technically, the MACD and short - term moving averages show a death cross [20].
金信期货日刊-2025-03-27
Jin Xin Qi Huo·2025-03-27 01:24