Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market anticipates 2 Fed rate cuts this year, with a low probability of a May cut and uncertainty about a June cut. There are ongoing concerns about US inflation, and the US counter - tariff policy takes effect on April 2nd [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts in the Gaza Strip have reignited, and US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela provide a bullish basis. US - Russia negotiations have both differences and progress, and the overall trend seems to be a cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but there is still some game space among the US, Russia, and Europe [2]. - OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts, with production set to increase in May. The oil price has factored in some of this, but it's unclear if it has fully priced in a smooth OPEC+ production increase. Attention should be paid to US drilling numbers and the probability of Trump's oil and gas production increase policy implementation [2]. - On the demand side, it's difficult to see a definite increase. There are reports of the US replenishing its SPR, but it's unlikely to happen quickly. Future inventory data will be a key factor, and currently, the total inventory is low, but the low - inventory support for prices may be weaker due to poor demand expectations [2]. - In the long - term, there is no clear global demand growth logic, and with OPEC+ gradually increasing production, potential supply losses should be monitored, especially from Russia, Iran, and other countries affected by US sanctions [2]. - Overnight, crude oil continued to rebound but faced resistance at the previous oscillation lower boundary, showing short - term pressure on the market. The overall market sentiment may turn bearish, but the final situation depends on Russian crude oil supply data [2]. - Technically, the oil price is still in a bearish mid - term state. After a continuous low - level rebound, short - term indicators are showing divergence. Traders should prepare to exit short - term long positions and consider a mid - term strategy of selling at high prices by setting up out - of - the - money put options with an execution price of around $67 per barrel for US crude oil [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - On March 26th, Sc was at 541.80 yuan/barrel, up 3.50 yuan (0.65%) from the previous day and up 25.60 yuan (4.96%) from the previous week. WTI was at $69.94/barrel, up $0.74 (1.07%) from the previous day and up $2.75 (4.09%) from the previous week. Brent was at $74.00/barrel, up $0.83 (1.13%) from the previous day and up $3.14 (4.43%) from the previous week [2]. - The Sc - WTI spread was $5.57/barrel, down $0.22 (-3.75%) from the previous day but up $0.76 (15.82%) from the previous week. The Sc - Brent spread was $1.51/barrel, down $0.31 (-16.90%) from the previous day and up $0.37 (32.58%) from the previous week [2]. - The Brent - WTI spread was $4.06/barrel, up $2.25 (123.73%) from the previous day and up $2.92 (256.94%) from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Data - OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $75.74/barrel, up $1.49 (2.01%) from the previous week; Brent DTD was at $74.67/barrel, up $2.17 (2.99%) from the previous week. Oman and Dubai were both at $73.63/barrel, up $0.71 (0.97%) from the previous week [2]. - ESPO was at $67.82/barrel, with an OPEC - basket premium of $1.74/barrel, up $0.24 (16.00%) from the previous day and up $2.17 (3.31%) from the previous week. The Brent DTD premium was $0.67/barrel, up $0.21 (45.65%) from the previous day but down $4.36 (-118.16%) from the previous week [2]. - The Oman premium was -$0.37/barrel, up $3.31 (89.95%) from the previous day but down $2.37 (-86.50%) from the previous week. The Dubai premium was -$0.37/barrel, up $1.96 (84.12%) from the previous day and down $0.02 (-5.13%) from the previous week [2]. 3.3 Product Spot Data - Diesel in East China was at 6905.27 yuan/ton, up 45.18 yuan (0.66%) from the previous day and up 102.91 yuan (1.51%) from the previous week. Gasoline in East China was at 8109.36 yuan/ton, up 36.55 yuan (0.45%) from the previous day and up 93.36 yuan (1.16%) from the previous week [2]. - The ratio of diesel in East China to Sc was 12.745059, up 0.00 (0.01%) from the previous day but down 0.43 (-3.28%) from the previous week. The ratio of gasoline in East China to Sc was 14.967449, down 0.03 (-0.20%) from the previous day and down 0.56 (-3.62%) from the previous week [2]. 3.4 Inventory and Position Data - The total Sc warehouse receipts were 648.50 million barrels, down 50.00 million barrels (-7.16%) from the previous week. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 396.15 million barrels, up 0.29 million barrels (0.07%) from the previous week [2]. - US commercial crude oil was 433.63 million barrels, down 3.34 million barrels (-0.76%) from the previous week. Cushing crude oil was 22.71 million barrels, down 0.76 million barrels (-3.22%) from the previous week [2]. - US gasoline was 239.13 million barrels, down 1.45 million barrels (-0.60%) from the previous week. Distillates were 114.36 million barrels, down 0.42 million barrels (-0.37%) from the previous week [2]. - The non - commercial net position in CFTC was 16.68 million contracts, up 0.27 million contracts (1.64%) from the previous week. The commercial net position was - 18.22 million contracts, down 0.35 million contracts (1.95%) from the previous week [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US Congressional Budget Office warns that if the debt ceiling is not raised, the government may face a default risk as early as August. If borrowing demand exceeds forecasts, the Treasury's borrowing capacity may be exhausted in late May or June [3]. - The EIA reports that for the week ending March 21st, US crude oil inventories decreased by 3.341 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.446 million barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 0.421 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 0.755 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories increased by 0.286 million barrels [4]. - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak says the Kropotkin oil station is under restoration, and it's too early to say when the work will be completed. The MOL Group is interested in Russian oil and gas projects. The global oil market is stable, and demand is gradually recovering. OPEC+ will monitor the market to maintain supply - demand balance. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is in normal operation, and global oil demand is expected to increase by 1 - 1.5 million barrels per day in 2025 [4]. - India's Reliance Industries will stop importing Venezuelan oil due to tariff threats. Last year, it imported an average of 2 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil per month, and it's unclear if it will receive the April shipment [4]. - Total Energies' CEO Patrick Pouyanne says Europe will still need a certain level of Russian natural gas for its industries to remain competitive. He wouldn't be surprised if one or two Nord Stream pipelines resume half of their capacity [5]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 86.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 13.6%. By June, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 33.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 58.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 8.3% [5]. - S&P warns that US policy uncertainty poses risks to the North American credit environment, and the probability of a US economic recession in the next 12 months is 25% [6]. - Fed's Musalem says the risk of recent inflation stagnating above 2% or rising further has increased. It's appropriate to be patient with the current policy. If the labor market remains strong and the second - round tariff effects appear, the Fed may need to keep rates high for longer or adopt stricter policies [6]. - Bridgewater's Ray Dalio warns US House Republicans about the danger of rising deficits and urges them to cut the budget deficit to 3% of GDP to avoid the risk of debt - servicing costs squeezing government spending [7]. - The winning bid rate for the 5 - year US Treasury bond auction on March 26th was 4.1%, down from the previous 4.12%. The winning bid rate for the 4 - month Treasury bond auction was 4.2%, the same as the previous rate [7].
山金期货原油日报-2025-03-27
Shan Jin Qi Huo·2025-03-27 01:18