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人形机器人量产加迷，持续关注产业链进展
中航证券·2025-03-27 02:05

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The humanoid robot industry is entering a critical production phase, with global cumulative demand expected to reach approximately 2 million units by 2030, indicating a significant growth opportunity for Tier 1 and core component suppliers [4][5] - The report highlights the acceleration of N-type penetration in photovoltaic equipment, strengthening the competitiveness of leading companies under the Matthew effect [5] - Energy storage is essential for building a new type of power grid, with favorable policies enhancing industry prosperity, particularly for leading companies in batteries, inverters, and integration [5] - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to reach 140billionby2030,withincreasingdemandinmainlandChina,althoughthedomesticproductionrateremainslow[5]−Theautomationsectorisexpectedtogrowfromamarketsizeofapproximately40billionto55.7billionby2026,benefitingfromincreasedconcentrationandimportsubstitution[5]−Greenhydrogenalignswithcarbonneutralitygoals,withrapiddevelopmentinphotovoltaicandwindenergylayingthefoundationforhydrogenproduction[5]−Theengineeringmachinerysectorischaracterizedbystrongplayers,withrecommendationstofocusonleadingcompanieswithproduct,scale,andcostadvantages[5]SummarybyRelevantSectionsHumanoidRobots−RecentdevelopmentsinthehumanoidrobotsupplychainincludethelaunchoftheDobotAtombyYujianTechnology,pricedfrom199,000yuan,targetingvariousoperationalscenarios[5][8]−TheintroductionofanewADCdatacollectionparadigmbyZhiyuanRoboticsenhancesdatadensityanddiversity,significantlyreducingthedatacollectionrequirementsformodeltraining[9]PhotovoltaicEquipment−ThereportemphasizestherapidincreaseinN−typepenetrationandthecompetitiveadvantagesofleadingcompaniesduetotechnologicalinnovationandscale[14]−Theoverallpricecenterofthephotovoltaicindustrychainisdeclining,withafocusoncostandefficiencyimprovements[14]EnergyStorage−Thereportnotessignificantpolicysupportforbothgeneration−sideanduser−sideenergystorage,drivingcomprehensiveindustrydevelopment[14]−CompanieslikeXingyunCo.andKexinNewEnergyarehighlightedfortheirstrategicpartnershipsandgrowthpotentialintheenergystoragesector[14]SemiconductorEquipment−Theglobalsemiconductorequipmentmarketisexpectedtodoubleinthenextdecade,withaprojecteddemandof140 billion by 2030, with increasing demand in mainland China, although the domestic production rate remains low [5] - The automation sector is expected to grow from a market size of approximately 40 billion to 55.7 billion by 2026, benefiting from increased concentration and import substitution [5] - Green hydrogen aligns with carbon neutrality goals, with rapid development in photovoltaic and wind energy laying the foundation for hydrogen production [5] - The engineering machinery sector is characterized by strong players, with recommendations to focus on leading companies with product, scale, and cost advantages [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - Recent developments in the humanoid robot supply chain include the launch of the Dobot Atom by Yujian Technology, priced from 199,000 yuan, targeting various operational scenarios [5][8] - The introduction of a new ADC data collection paradigm by Zhiyuan Robotics enhances data density and diversity, significantly reducing the data collection requirements for model training [9] Photovoltaic Equipment - The report emphasizes the rapid increase in N-type penetration and the competitive advantages of leading companies due to technological innovation and scale [14] - The overall price center of the photovoltaic industry chain is declining, with a focus on cost and efficiency improvements [14] Energy Storage - The report notes significant policy support for both generation-side and user-side energy storage, driving comprehensive industry development [14] - Companies like Xingyun Co. and Kexin New Energy are highlighted for their strategic partnerships and growth potential in the energy storage sector [14] Semiconductor Equipment - The global semiconductor equipment market is expected to double in the next decade, with a projected demand of 140 billion by 2030 [15] - The report suggests focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from domestic substitution trends [15] Automation - The market for industrial tools is projected to grow significantly, with a current size of around 40 billion, expected to reach 55.7 billion by 2026 [15] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies that can benefit from increased market concentration and import substitution [15] Hydrogen Energy - The report highlights the potential of green hydrogen in achieving carbon neutrality, with a focus on companies that have integrated advantages in the green hydrogen supply chain [14]