Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The downside space of styrene is limited, with support at the [7600] price level. The styrene contract is eb2505. Looking ahead, styrene may show a pattern of having support below and pressure above. The support lies in the upcoming maintenance season for pure benzene and styrene, during which styrene inventory will gradually decline. The de - stocking of pure benzene is less significant than that of styrene, showing a moderate de - stocking trend, so the price support in the second quarter is relatively strong. The upper - side pressure comes from the limited ability of end - users to bear high prices. One should focus on the profits of pure benzene downstream and styrene downstream. The price range is estimated to be between [7600, 8150] [4]. - Crude oil is generally strong. The profit of domestic pure benzene has recently continued to recover to a seasonal high, while the non - integrated profit of styrene has been at a relatively low level recently [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Toluene Spread - The document presents the toluene spread data in different regions such as America, Europe, and Asia on 2025 - 03 - 26, including the spread between benzene and toluene, and toluene and naphtha, with a daily update frequency [10][11][14]. 2. Pure Benzene Spread and Profit - On 2025 - 03 - 26, the domestic pure benzene profit was 268.62 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 87.5 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 334.89 yuan/ton. The pure benzene import profit was - 311.54 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 78.6 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 106.04 yuan/ton. The document also shows the pure benzene US Gulf FOB - South Korea FOB spread and other related data with a daily update frequency [9][21][23]. 3. Other Downstream Profits of Pure Benzene - On 2025 - 03 - 26, the EPS price was 8950 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 50 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 150 yuan/ton. The PS price was 8800 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 50 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 150 yuan/ton. The ABS price was 11312.5 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 62.5 yuan/ton [11][12][13]. 4. Styrene Profit and Spread - On 2025 - 03 - 26, the non - integrated styrene profit was - 119.15 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 63.6 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 3.74 yuan/ton. The integrated (ethylbenzene dehydrogenation) styrene profit was 611.70 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 42.5 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 328.44 yuan/ton. The document also includes styrene price, spread, and other related data [23][24][31]. 5. EB Inventory Situation - On 2025 - 03 - 26, the China CFR price of EB was 961.00 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 26 US dollars/ton. The US Gulf FOB price was 1125.00 US dollars/ton, with no change. The South Korea FOB price was 951.00 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 26 US dollars/ton. The Rotterdam FOB price was 1223.00 US dollars/ton, with a daily change of 8 US dollars/ton and a weekly change of 10 US dollars/ton. The China Taiwan CFR price was 989.00 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 20 US dollars/ton [15][16][17]. 6. EB Downstream Profits - The document shows the profit data of EB downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS, with different daily and weekly changes [11][12][13]. 7. Pure Benzene Inventory Situation - The document presents the pure benzene inventory data in East China ports from different sources (Longzhong and Huarui) on different dates, with a weekly update frequency [45][46]. 8. Styrene Inventory Situation - It includes the inventory data of styrene in mainstream storage areas in Jiangsu and South China, national factory inventory, total inventory, and port total inventory from different sources (Longzhong and Huarui) on different dates, with a weekly update frequency [62]. 9. Industry Chain Operation Suggestions - For refiners with high inventory worried about styrene price decline, they can hedge a small proportion of unsold EB inventory by short - selling eb2505 to prevent unexpected risks, with a hedging ratio of 20% and an entry price of 9600 [5]. - For traders building inventory and seeking to buy styrene at low prices, they can buy call options (eb2505 - C - 8600) according to the procurement plan to prevent price increases, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry price of 77 [5]. - For traders with inventory seeking to sell styrene at high prices, they can partially short - hedge to prevent short - term price declines, with a hedging ratio of 20% and an entry price of 9600 [5]. - For end - customers purchasing styrene and worried about price increases, they can buy call options (eb2505 - C - 8600) according to the procurement plan to prevent price increases, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry price of 77 [5]. - For end - customers with inventory worried about styrene price decline, they can partially short - hedge to prevent short - term price declines, with a hedging ratio of 20% and an entry price of 9600 [5]. - Attention should be paid to the inventory data of Longzhong's pure benzene and styrene at ports on Mondays, Huarui's pure benzene and styrene at ports on Wednesdays, the load and inventory of the styrene industrial chain on Thursdays, and the load and inventory of the pure benzene industrial chain on Fridays [5].
苯乙烯产业链早报-2025-03-27
Zhe Shang Qi Huo·2025-03-27 05:21