行业温和复苏，关注AI与终端硬件融合

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a mild recovery, with a focus on the integration of AI and terminal hardware. The first quarter of 2025 has seen innovations in AI terminals characterized by high-performance computing, lightweight design, and diverse applications. The CES 2025 has become a core stage for technology implementation, promoting the penetration of AI from the cloud to the edge, and accelerating the commercialization of embodied intelligence and autonomous driving [1][26] Industry Data Tracking - Smartphones: In 2024, global smartphone shipments are expected to reach approximately 1.22 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 7%, ending a two-year decline, driven by a recovery in demand from emerging markets and policy incentives [3] - PCs: Global PC shipments are projected to show a mild recovery in 2024, with total shipments of 256 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [3][9] - Tablets: Total tablet shipments in 2024 are expected to reach 147.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, indicating a robust recovery compared to 2023 [3][10] - Wearable Devices: Global shipments of wearable devices are anticipated to reach 193 million units in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 4%, continuing a recovery trend for two consecutive years [3] - TWS Earbuds: In 2024, global TWS earbud shipments are expected to reach 330 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13%, ending a previous slowdown in growth [3][11] - AI Glasses: Global sales of AI smart glasses are projected to reach 1.52 million units in 2024, a staggering year-on-year growth of 533%, with RayBan Meta accounting for 1.42 million units sold [3][13] Industry News - Policy Support: The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have proposed subsidies for consumers purchasing smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches, providing 15% of the product price as a subsidy, capped at 500 yuan per item [3][21] - Product Launches: The first quarter of 2025 has seen the launch of several new products in the consumer electronics sector driven by AI technology, including smart glasses, AI PCs, and AI headphones [3] Sector Tracking - Recent Performance: Over the past month, the consumer electronics index has underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.96 percentage points, while outperforming the electronics index by 0.04 percentage points. The consumer electronics index has seen a decline of 1.81%, while the electronics index has decreased by 1.85%, and the CSI 300 index has increased by 1.15% [3][24] - Annual Performance: Over the past year, the consumer electronics index has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 15.06 percentage points but underperformed the electronics index by 8.05 percentage points, with the consumer electronics index showing a growth of 26.06% [3][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are innovating in AI terminal technology, including Crystal Optoelectronics, Tengjing Technology, Weir Shares, Yidao Information, Tianjian Shares, Jiahe Intelligent, Goer Technology, Lingyi Zhi Zao, and Changying Precision [1][26]