EIA周度报告点评-2025-03-27

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The EIA report for the week is relatively bearish. Although the surface data that the market focuses on looks good, the actual situation is not as optimistic as it seems. There are signs of weakness on the demand side, mainly in the industrial and manufacturing sectors, and the sustainability of the weak jet fuel data also deserves attention. The extent to which the weak US demand can interfere with the oil price rebound momentum remains to be seen [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Data Overview - As of March 21, US commercial crude oil inventories were 433.627 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.341 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1 million barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 755,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 286,000 barrels [2][3]. - In terms of refined oil products, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.446 million barrels, less than the expected decrease of 1.8 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 421,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels [2]. - US total crude oil chain inventories increased by 3.478 million barrels. US crude oil production was stable at 13.574 million barrels per day, net imports increased by 845,000 barrels per day, and processing volume increased by 87,000 barrels per day [3]. - The four - week smoothed US crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 401,250 barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand increased by 47,250 barrels per day, distillate apparent demand decreased by 115,250 barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 29,250 barrels per day [3]. Report Review - Last week, US crude oil and major refined oil inventories decreased, with crude oil inventory decline exceeding expectations. The refinery utilization rate increased slightly by 0.1% to 87%, still in a low range, indicating ongoing maintenance [4]. - The overall US inventory increased, mainly in jet fuel and other petrochemical - based inventories. There were few positive factors other than the decline in major inventory indicators [4]. - In the refined oil market, distillate demand continued to decline, consistent with the recent weak manufacturing data. Other inventories mainly composed of petrochemicals increased significantly, indicating weak industrial demand. Jet fuel single - week demand dropped sharply to a one - year low, but the four - week smoothed data was acceptable, likely due to short - term sales fluctuations at refineries [6]. Market Reaction - This week's EIA report is relatively bearish. Although the surface data that the market focuses on is good, such as the larger - than - expected decline in crude oil inventories and the decline in major refined oil inventories, which briefly pushed up oil prices after the report was released, the weak demand - side data led to a subsequent price correction [8]. - The weak demand in the US, especially in the industrial and manufacturing sectors, and the sustainability of weak jet fuel data are concerning. The impact of weak US demand on the oil price rebound momentum under the background of market speculation on supply - side variables remains to be observed [8].