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原油周报:美国基本面数据坚韧,关注俄乌和平进程进展-20250822
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 11:05
原油周报 美国基本面数据坚韧,关注俄乌和平进程进展 姓名:肖彧 投资咨询证号: Z0016296 2025年8月22日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号:证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 周度重点 目录 03 价格、价差、裂解 CONTENTS 04 供需库存平衡表 05 EIA周度报告及其他 01 周度观点 1.1 周度观点 本周主要观点: 上周周报观点:机构报告的大供应叙事加强了我们维持中长期偏空观点的信心,而美国通胀数据也支 撑了我们对于美国滞胀的预期。不过短期市场将更关注特普会,美湾潜在气旋如果顺利形成也将短线 推升油价,从而带来更好的做空机会。 本周走势分析:周初油价小幅走弱,尽管特普会、特泽会较为顺利,但由于市场之前已经大幅计价乐 观情绪,因此进一步跌幅不大。后半周由于EIA周报利多以及市场重新衡量和谈进展,油价略有反弹。 • 基本面:柴油裂解企稳反弹,终端消费坚韧,但大供应背景仍然打压原油月差(2.1-2.5) • 俄乌和谈:虽有进展,但仍有核心分歧,若出现反复则风险溢价将回归(2.6) • 美联储:关注杰克逊霍尔年会鲍威尔发言,我们预计不会给出明确指引(2.7) • 周度观点:原油 ...
沥青周报:边际略有好转-20250822
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 11:04
沥青周报 边际略有好转 姓名:肖彧 投资咨询证号:Z0016296 2025年8月22日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号:证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 数据概览 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度观点 1.1 周度观点 上周主要观点:沥青自身依然刚需为主,下周预计降雨影响有所减少,但资金制约使得需求总体难有超 预期表现。现阶段虽然厂库位置较低,但社库持续没有去化或继续压制市场情绪。预计沥青走势整体震 荡,偏弱跟随成本端为主。 本周走势分析:本周沥青走势震荡,后半周小幅走强,总体跟随成本端原油走势。 本周行业数据:本周炼厂供需双减,其中开工下降更多。厂库小幅增加,之前一直去库不畅的社库本周 出现松动,边际偏多。 本周主要观点:随着未来短期检修量增加,而降雨天气减少,预计沥青边际好转,不过需求依然受到资 金面制约。预计沥青难以走出独立行情,跟随成本端为主。 风险提示:成本端波动风险,沥青库存变化 02 数据概览 0 100 200 300 400 500 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 10 20 3 ...
EIA周度报告点评-20250821
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 06:56
EIA周度数据报告 2025-08-21 09:52:34 摘要:出口和开工强劲带动库存下降 作者:肖或(Z0016296) 成品油方面,汽油库存下降272.0万桶,超过预期的减少90万桶,馏分油库存增加234.3万桶,超过预期的增加90万桶。 | 单位:干桶、千桶/日 | 8月8日 | 8月15日 | 型化 | 沂三月趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存 | 426698 | 420684 | -6014 | | | 库欣原油库存 | 23051 | 23470 | 419 | | | 美国战略储备库存 | 403202 | 403425 | 223 | | | 美国汽油库存 | 226290 | 223570 | -2720 | | | 美国馆分油库存 | 113685 | 116028 | 2343 | | | 美国原油链总库存 | 1670549 | 1666537 | -4012 ~ | | | 美国原油产量 | 13327 | 13382 | રેર | | | 美国原油净进口 | 3343 | 2125 | -1218 ~ | | | 美 ...
沥青周报:继续承压-20250815
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 12:41
Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Continue to bear pressure" [1] Core View of the Report - Last week's view: Asphalt demand is mainly driven by rigid needs. Affected by rainy weather and capital constraints, it is difficult to have unexpected performance. Although the refinery inventory is at a low level, the continuous lack of destocking in social inventory may continue to restrict the upside space. It is expected that the overall trend of asphalt will be volatile, weakly following the cost side [7]. - This week's market analysis: This week, asphalt fluctuated weakly, showing a weaker pattern than crude oil on the cost side [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, refinery supply increased while demand decreased, and refinery inventory increased slightly, which is bearish but with limited marginal change. However, the social inventory, which has been difficult to destock, continued to rise. Considering that it is currently the traditional peak consumption season for asphalt, the slow destocking of social inventory is a significant bearish factor [7]. - This week's view: Asphalt demand remains mainly rigid. Next week, the impact of rainfall is expected to decrease, but capital constraints will make it difficult for overall demand to have unexpected performance. Although the refinery inventory is at a low level, the continuous lack of destocking in social inventory may continue to suppress market sentiment. It is expected that the overall trend of asphalt will be volatile, weakly following the cost side [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View - Last week's main view was that asphalt demand was mainly rigid, affected by weather and capital, with limited upside due to social inventory. This week, asphalt trended weakly compared to crude oil. Industry data showed increased supply, decreased demand, and rising social inventory. Next week, with less rainfall but capital constraints, asphalt is expected to remain volatile and follow the cost side weakly [7] 2. Data Overview 2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis - The section presents charts of asphalt futures trends, including the relationship between the main contract price, monthly spreads (e.g., BU9 - BU12), and basis in East China and Shandong. Data sources are Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11] 2.2 Asphalt Supply - Charts show asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate. Data is from Steel Union Data [12][13][14] 2.3 Asphalt Demand - The section includes charts of asphalt shipment volume, apparent consumption, paver sales, and their 12 - month moving averages. Data is sourced from Steel Union Data [15][16][17] 2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - Charts display asphalt import and export volumes, import windows in East China and South China, and the price differences between imported and domestic mainstream prices. Data is from Steel Union Data [18][19][20] 2.5 Asphalt Inventory - Charts present refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume. Data is from Steel Union Data [21][22][23] 2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The section shows the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in Shandong. Data is from Steel Union Data [24][25][26] 2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Charts display the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in East China. Data is from Steel Union Data [27][28][29] 2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The section presents the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in South China. Data is from Steel Union Data [30][31][32] 2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule - A table lists refineries under maintenance, including the production enterprise, maintenance device, production capacity, maintenance start time, and end - time (mostly undetermined). The total annual production capacity of refineries under maintenance is 1886 tons, and the maintenance loss is 583,400 tons. Data is from Steel Union Data [33]
原油周报:主要机构纷纷看空,关注特普会-20250815
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 12:12
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintained a medium - to long - term bearish view on oil prices, supported by major institutions' reports on large supply and US inflation data [7] - Short - term market would focus on the Trump - Putin meeting, and a potential cyclone in the US Gulf could push up oil prices in the short term, providing better short - selling opportunities [7] Summary by Directory 01 Weekly Viewpoints - Last week's view was to maintain a medium - to long - term bearish view, and thought short - term oil prices might be slightly undervalued [7] - This week, oil prices continued to decline. Concerns about Russian oil disturbances eased, and OPEC+ production increase pressure was magnified [7] - Key factors included weakening month - spreads, stable cracking, major institutions' reports on supply increase, OPEC+ production increase, and the impact of the Trump - Putin meeting [7] 02 Weekly Highlights - Global near - month spreads were generally weak, with Western and Eastern markets showing signs of slowing supply - demand [9][11] - Global cracking was generally stable, with New York and Northwest Europe cracking Brent relatively weaker [13] - Gasoline cracking stabilized, but its upside was limited. Diesel cracking was weak, and its slowdown might impact the fundamentals [15] - Refining economy declined, especially in Asia, which might affect future refinery operating rates [17] - Global diesel inventories were low, mainly due to raw material issues, and were expected to improve before the autumn - winter consumption peak [20] - Major energy institutions' August reports showed that IEA and EIA significantly increased supply expectations, while OPEC continued to support production increase [22] - OPEC+ 8 - country production showed that most countries well - executed production plans, and many were over - producing [36][37] - The Trump - Putin meeting could cause market disturbances, but it was difficult to change the overall supply - dominated market pattern in the long run [40] - US macro - economic data indicated a potential stagflation situation, and core inflation was stubborn [42] - This year's North American hurricane activity was expected to be 60% above average, and a potential cyclone might affect oil production and refining [44] 03 Price, Spread, and Cracking - Provided data on crude oil futures and spot trends, including Brent and WTI [48] - Presented information on WTI and Brent crude oil positions, futures structures, month - spreads, cross - market futures and spot spreads [50][53][56] - Showed Saudi OSP data for different regions and different oil grades [72] - Provided data on refined product futures and spot prices, as well as cracking data in different regions [77][79][82] 04 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - Presented data on global, non - OPEC, and OPEC crude oil supply, including production, capacity, and rig numbers [98][101][104] - Showed data on global, OECD, and non - OECD crude oil demand [120][123][126] - Provided data on crude oil inventories in the US, OECD, and other regions [130][133][135] - Presented EIA balance sheet data, showing supply, consumption, and balance changes [150]
EIA周度报告点评-20250814
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 05:13
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly report is slightly bearish for the oil market. The unexpected increase in crude oil inventories, combined with the recent significant increases in global crude oil supply expectations in the EIA and IEA monthly reports, exerts downward pressure on oil prices in the medium to long term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Data Overview - As of August 8, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 426,698 thousand barrels, a week-on-week increase of 3,036 thousand barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 275 thousand barrels. Cushing inventories increased by 45 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 226 thousand barrels [2][3]. - Gasoline inventories decreased by 792 thousand barrels, in line with the expected decrease of 700 thousand barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 714 thousand barrels, in line with the expected increase of 700 thousand barrels [2][3]. - U.S. crude oil production increased by 43 thousand barrels per day to 13,327 thousand barrels per day, net imports increased by 699 thousand barrels per day to 3,343 thousand barrels per day, and processing volume increased by 56 thousand barrels per day to 17,180 thousand barrels per day [3]. - The four - week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand increased by 543.25 thousand barrels per day to 21,159 thousand barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand increased by 127.75 thousand barrels per day to 9,039.75 thousand barrels per day, distillate apparent demand increased by 69.5 thousand barrels per day to 3,592.25 thousand barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand increased by 50.5 thousand barrels per day to 1,827.25 thousand barrels per day [3]. Report Review - Last week, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased while the downstream refinery utilization rate remained high, dropping 0.5% to 96.4%. The increase in inventories was mainly due to increased imports and decreased exports of U.S. crude oil. Since the end of June, U.S. crude oil exports have been slightly lower than before, suggesting poor overseas demand or the impact of tariffs [4]. - Gasoline demand has rebounded slightly, but its overall performance during this year's driving peak season has been poor, often falling below 9 million barrels per day. As the peak travel season is in its later stage, the market boost is limited. Distillate demand remains stable, and inventories are still at a low level. As the weather turns to autumn and the driving peak season enters the second half, the market will focus on distillates [8].
EIA周度数据报告-20250814
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 05:12
EIA周度报告点评 主要数据一览: 截止8月8日,美国商业原油总库存为42669.8万桶,环比增加303.6万桶,,与预期的减少27.5万桶相反,交割地库欣库存增加4.5万桶。战略储备 库存增加22.6万桶。 成品油方面,汽油库存减少79.2万桶,与预期的减少70万桶相符,馏分油库存增加71.4万桶,与预期的增加70万桶相符。 | 单位:千桶、千桶/日 | 8月1日 | 8月8日 | 型化 | 沂三月趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存 | 423662 | 426698 | 3036 | | | 库欣原油库存 | 23006 | 23051 | 45 | | | 美国战略储备库存 | 402976 | 403202 | 226 | | | 美国汽油库存 | 227082 | 226290 | -792 ~ | | | 美国馏分油库存 | 112971 | 113685 | 714 | | | 美国原油链总库存 | 1662801 | 1670549 | 7748 | | | 美国原油产量 | 13284 | 13327 | 43 | | | 美国原油 ...
主要能源机构8月平衡表
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 12:01
主要能源机构8月平衡表 姓名:肖彧 投资咨询证号: Z0016296 2025年8月13日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号:证监许可[2011]1446号 目录 CONTENTS 01 EIA 02 OPEC 01 EIA 1.1 EIA平衡表 供应 消费 平衡 平衡变化 2025Q1 103.59 102.16 +1.43 +0.26 2025Q2 105.06 103.71 +1.35 +0.08 2025Q3 106.11 104.49 +1.62 +0.88 2025Q4 106.63 104.53 +2.10 +1.03 2025 105.35 103.72 +1.06 +0.56 2026Q1 105.77 103.51 +2.26 +0.50 2026Q2 106.37 104.90 +1.47 +0.40 资料来源:EIA 全球原油平衡 -4 -2 0 2 4 21-1 21-7 22-1 22-7 23-1 23-7 24-1 24-7 25-1 25-7 26-1 26-7 全球原油平衡 预估值 EIA在8月报告中进一步全面强化了今明年每个季度供应过剩的 程度(其中今年106万桶/日→163万桶 ...
沥青周报:社库不降反增,走势依然偏弱-20250808
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 09:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Last week's view: Asphalt demand is mainly for actual needs, and due to capital constraints, it is difficult to have better - than - expected performance. Although the refinery inventory is at a low level, the continuous lack of destocking in social inventory may restrict the overall upside space. It is expected that the overall trend of asphalt will be volatile and weakly follow the cost side [7]. - This week's trend analysis: This week, asphalt followed the decline of the cost - side crude oil. Combining with last week's market, it generally showed weak performance in rising and smooth decline [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, refinery supply decreased while demand increased, and refinery inventory also decreased slightly. However, the social inventory, which had originally been slow to destock, increased instead. After entering the peak season, the slow destocking speed of social inventory will restrict the upside space of asphalt prices [7]. - This week's view: Asphalt demand is still mainly for actual needs. Affected by rainy weather and capital constraints, it is difficult to have better - than - expected performance. Although the refinery inventory is at a low level, the continuous lack of destocking in social inventory may continue to restrict the upside space. It is expected that the overall trend of asphalt will be volatile and weakly follow the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 周度观点 (Weekly View) - Last week's view: Asphalt is mainly for actual needs, and capital constraints limit its performance. Low refinery inventory but slow social - inventory destocking restricts upside space. Expected to be volatile and follow the cost side weakly [7]. - This week's analysis: Followed the decline of crude oil, with weak rising and smooth falling performance [7]. - This week's data: Refinery supply decreased, demand increased, refinery inventory dropped slightly, but social inventory rose. Slow social - inventory destocking restricts price upside [7]. - This week's view: Affected by weather and capital, asphalt is for actual needs. Low refinery inventory and slow social - inventory destocking may restrict upside. Expected to be volatile and follow the cost side weakly [7]. 3.2 02 数据概览 (Data Overview) 3.2.1 沥青期货走势、月差、基差 (Asphalt Futures Trend, Monthly Spread, and Basis) - Data on asphalt futures main contract price, monthly spread (BU9 - BU12), and basis in East China and Shandong regions are presented in graphical form, with data sources from Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11] 3.2.2 沥青供应 (Asphalt Supply) - Graphs show asphalt plant operating rate, weekly production, refinery asphalt profit, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate. Data source is Steel Union Data [12][13][14] 3.2.3 沥青需求 (Asphalt Demand) - Graphs display asphalt shipment volume, apparent consumption, paver sales, and paver sales multiplied by apparent consumption. Data source is Steel Union Data [15][16][17] 3.2.4 沥青进出口 (Asphalt Import and Export) - Graphs show asphalt import and export volumes, import windows in East China and South China, and the price differences between imported and domestic mainstream prices. Data source is Steel Union Data [18][19][20] 3.2.5 沥青库存 (Asphalt Inventory) - Graphs present refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume. Data source is Steel Union Data [21][22][23] 3.2.6 山东沥青供需库 (Supply, Demand, and Inventory of Shandong Asphalt) - Graphs show the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of Shandong asphalt. Data source is Steel Union Data [24][25][26] 3.2.7 华东沥青供需库 (Supply, Demand, and Inventory of East China Asphalt) - Graphs show the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of East China asphalt. Data source is Steel Union Data [27][28][29] 3.2.8 华南沥青供需库 (Supply, Demand, and Inventory of South China Asphalt) - Graphs show the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of South China asphalt. Data source is Steel Union Data [30][31][32] 3.2.9 检修信息 (Maintenance Information) - Information on production enterprises' maintenance of atmospheric - vacuum distillation units is provided, including enterprise names, maintenance units, production capacities, maintenance start times, and end times. The total annual production capacity of the maintenance units is 1836 tons/year, and the maintenance loss is 616,000 tons [33]
原油周报:美国就业数据爆冷叠加OPEC+增产打压油价-20250808
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 09:09
原油周报 美国就业数据爆冷叠加OPEC+增产打压油价 姓名:肖彧 投资咨询证号: Z0016296 2025年8月8日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号:证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 周度重点 目录 03 价格、价差、裂解 CONTENTS 04 供需库存平衡表 05 EIA周度报告及其他 01 周度观点 1.1 周度观点 本周主要观点: 上周月报观点:8月我们将关注柴油裂解走向,在汽油消费不佳的情况下,柴油裂解引领了炼油厂的炼 油经济性。一旦柴油裂解持续走弱,将直接损害到炼厂开工率,使得原油消费端开始逐渐难以抵抗日 益增加的供应压力,使得8月油价承压。 本周走势分析:本周油价持续回落,随着美俄元首即将会晤以及潜在的美俄乌会谈,俄油扰动忧虑有 所缓解,OPEC+增产压力在原油逐渐脱离传统消费旺季之际遭到放大。 • 基本面:月差走弱,柴油裂解见顶引领油价下跌,美国旺季汽油消费疲软(2.1-2.6) • OPEC+供应:增产有条不紊,未来仍有进一步增产空间(2.7) • 市场扰动项:边谈边制裁是更可能选项,关注谈判进展(2.9) • 美国宏观:就业数据大暴冷推动降息预期,对市场形成利空(2.10- ...