——东吴期货原油四季报 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025 年 9 月 26 日 2025 年度四季报-原油 此消彼长，供应压力逐渐显现 一、2025 年四季度展望 我们维持年报观点和半年报观点不变，全年油价趋于下跌。 尽管特朗普发动的关税战以及 OPEC+加速增产打乱了我们的预测步调，使得油价在比我们预期更 早的时候就大幅下行，而随后的伊以冲突又令油价再度大幅上行，我们仍然延续之前绝大部分思路。 我们在半年报时展望到，非 OPEC+供应在下半年开始显著上量叠加季节性旺季消费在三季度结束 将导致油市平衡在年底前逐渐打破，考虑到 OPEC+仍有可能加速增产、美国的滞胀困扰、贸易壁垒下 的全球经济逆风等额外利空因素，我们预计油市依然积重难返，布伦特原油价格有望在年底前再次向 下挑战 60 美元/桶。预计下半年油价波动范围 57-86 美元/桶，均价 67 美元/桶。 注：半年报发布当日布伦特油价在 75 美元/桶上方，彼时伊以冲突尚在升温，地缘不确定性使得预 测区间上沿偏高，但对未来的坚定看空使得均价预测低于预测区间的平均值。 我们认为四季度正是此消彼长之际，一方面供应仍在不断增加，而需求则从三 ...

姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号： Z0016296 2025年9月26日 沥青周报 跟随成本端走高，但不多 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度观点 02 数据概览 01 周度观点 1.1 周度观点 上周主要观点：本周炼厂出货量因节前备货大增，然沥青价格并没有受到显著提振，高企的社库依然制 约沥青上方空间，部分地区高价货源开始承压。预计炼厂开工依然缓慢升温(见2.2)，不过需求受到资金 面制约预计难有大幅上行空间，弱势跟随成本端为主。 本周走势分析：本周沥青跟随成本端原油走高，相对形态弱于原油以及其他重油。 本周行业数据：本周炼厂供需双强，炼厂开工率进一步上行，时隔两年首次站上40%，而炼厂出货量因 节前备货维持强劲。本周厂库低位反弹，因开工强劲，社会库存持续下降，曲线仍然显著落后于往年同 期，随着旺季不断深入将限制沥青上行空间。 本周主要观点：炼厂出货量因节前备货连续两周处于年内高位，然沥青价格依然显著弱于油价，高企的 社库依然制约沥青上方空间，近期持续走高的开工率也形成拖累，需求受到资金面制约预计难有大幅上 行空间，弱势跟随成本端为主。 风险提示：成本端波 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EIA report is a mixed bag. Real - time indicators are relatively positive, with inventories of crude oil and refined products all decreasing and the decline in refinery operating rate being limited. However, leading indicators are persistently weak, with terminal demand remaining poor. The lackluster performance of distillates during the peak season may speed up autumn maintenance, offsetting the positive impact of inventory data. Despite the short - term upward trend in oil prices after the report release, the upward potential of oil prices is limited due to weak forward - looking indicators [12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory Data - As of September 19, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was 414.754 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 607,000 barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 235,000 barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 177,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 230,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.081 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 200,000 barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 1.685 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 500,000 barrels. The total inventory of the U.S. crude oil chain decreased by 244,000 barrels [2][3] Production, Import, and Processing Data - U.S. crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels per day to 13.501 million barrels per day. Crude oil net imports increased by 1.596 million barrels per day to 2.011 million barrels per day. Crude oil processing volume increased by 52,000 barrels per day to 16.476 million barrels per day. The refinery operating rate decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 93.0% [3] Terminal Demand Data - The four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for U.S. crude oil decreased by 205,250 barrels per day to 20.46575 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for gasoline decreased by 70,250 barrels per day to 8.8485 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for distillates decreased by 100,750 barrels per day to 3.626 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for jet fuel decreased by 57,500 barrels per day to 1.64525 million barrels per day. Terminal demand for refined products remains poor [3][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's main view: After a significant increase this week, it was expected that refinery operations would cool down next week. However, increased rainfall in the East China region might drag down regional rigid demand. Currently, asphalt consumption has entered the peak season, and the upside space depends on whether demand can drive down social inventories. However, demand is restricted by the capital side and is expected to have limited upside space, mainly following the cost side weakly [7]. - This week's trend analysis: This week, asphalt prices rose and then fell, showing a relatively weaker performance than crude oil and other heavy oils [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, refinery supply decreased while demand increased. The refinery operating rate slightly declined after a significant increase last week. Refinery shipments significantly increased due to pre - holiday stockpiling, leading to a decrease in factory inventories at a low level. The previously stubborn social inventories slightly decreased this week, showing marginal improvement, but the curve still significantly lags behind the same period in previous years. As the peak season deepens, it will limit the upside space for asphalt [7]. - This week's main view: This week, refinery shipments increased significantly due to pre - holiday stockpiling, but asphalt prices were not significantly boosted. High social inventories still restrict the upside space for asphalt, and high - priced supplies in some areas are starting to face pressure. It is expected that refinery operations will still gradually increase, but demand is restricted by the capital side and is expected to have limited upside space, mainly following the cost side weakly [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint - Last week's prediction was that refinery operations would cool down, but East China rainfall might affect demand. Currently in the peak consumption season, asphalt's upside depends on demand - driven social inventory reduction, but demand is capital - restricted with limited upside [7]. - This week, asphalt prices rose and then fell, weaker than crude oil and heavy oils. Refinery supply decreased, demand increased, operating rates dipped slightly, shipments rose due to stockpiling, and factory inventories declined. Social inventories improved marginally but lagged behind previous years [7]. - High social inventories still limit asphalt's upside, and some high - priced supplies face pressure. Refinery operations are expected to gradually increase, but demand has limited upside and will follow the cost side weakly [7]. 3.2 Data Overview 3.2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Spreads, and Basis - Presented historical data on asphalt futures spreads (BU9 - BU12), basis in East China and Shandong, and asphalt main contract prices [9][10]. 3.2.2 Asphalt Supply - Included data on asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate over multiple years [12][13]. 3.2.3 Asphalt Demand - Showed data on asphalt shipments, apparent consumption, paver sales, and the product of paver sales and apparent consumption over multiple years [15][16]. 3.2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - Provided data on asphalt imports and exports, import windows in East China and South China, and the price differences between imported完税 prices from South Korea and Singapore and the mainstream prices in East and South China [18][19]. 3.2.5 Asphalt Inventory - Displayed data on factory inventories, social inventories, futures inventories, and monthly futures delivery volumes over multiple years [21][22]. 3.2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Presented data on the operating rate, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories of asphalt in Shandong over multiple years [24][25]. 3.2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Showed data on the operating rate, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories of asphalt in East China over multiple years [27][28]. 3.2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Provided data on the operating rate, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories of asphalt in South China over multiple years [30][31]. 3.2.9 Asphalt Refinery Maintenance - Listed multiple asphalt refineries' maintenance information, including the maintenance device (atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit), production capacity, maintenance start time, and end time (most are undetermined). The total annual production capacity of the refineries under maintenance is 2026 tons, and the maintenance loss is 69.99 million tons [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are under long - term pressure from the narrative of large supply. As the Fed's internal differences increase, market concerns about the future employment market and economy remain, and the atmosphere in the crude oil market is still weak after the interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and all factors that can affect Russian oil supply [8]. - The EIA data this week is bearish from a forward - looking perspective, mainly due to the poor performance of distillates (the main product in autumn and winter demand) and the fact that US refineries are gradually entering the autumn maintenance period [21]. - The three major energy institutions (IEA, OPEC, EIA) did not significantly adjust the demand side in their September reports, but IEA and EIA have significantly increased the supply forecast for three consecutive months, and EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to fall significantly in the next few months [22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's view: Crude oil is under long - term pressure from large supply. As supply increases and autumn maintenance deepens, the supply - demand imbalance will become more significant, and oil prices will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the Fed meeting, and short - term interference factors are mainly from the Middle East geopolitical situation and potential sanctions against Russia [8]. - This week's price trend: Oil prices rose first and then fell. The rise was mainly due to Ukraine's attack on Russian energy facilities, but the latter half of the week saw a decline due to the bearish EIA weekly report and the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - This week's main views: Fundamentally, the downward trend of the monthly spread has slowed slightly, and cracking is relatively resilient. The US is gradually entering the autumn maintenance period, and distillate demand is poor. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but internal differences increased. Trump said there would be good news soon, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments [8]. 3.2 Weekly Key Points - **Global near - month spread**: The near - month spreads of Brent and WTI in the world's major markets slightly rebounded this week, but the long - term trend is still downward, indicating a slowdown in spot supply and demand [12]. - **Cracking trend**: Global refined oil spot prices are still supported. Relatively speaking, the cracking trend of US spot is slightly weaker, while that of Northwest Europe and Singapore is stronger. Although terminal demand is okay, the supply increase is greater, resulting in a weaker near - end spread [14][15]. - **Fundamental quantitative indicators**: The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral, and the latest signal was negative from September 10th to 11th. The current forward - looking indicator of crude oil fundamentals is also neutral, and the latest signal was positive only on September 16th [18]. - **US autumn maintenance and distillate performance**: As of September 12th, the US refinery operating rate decreased by 1.6% to 93.3% month - on - month, indicating the start of the traditional autumn maintenance. Distillate demand decreased instead of increasing during the traditional autumn harvest season, and inventory increased during the period of declining refinery operating rate, which is contrary to the seasonal trend [21]. - **Summary of September report views of major energy institutions**: The three institutions did not significantly adjust the demand side, but IEA and EIA increased the supply forecast. EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to fall significantly in the next few months [22]. - **Fed's September meeting**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP to 4% - 4.25% in September, in line with market expectations. The dot - plot in September showed that the doves gradually dominated. There are obvious contradictions in this meeting, highlighting internal differences within the Fed [23][26]. - **Russia - Ukraine situation**: The Russia - Ukraine peace talks have stagnated, but there may be a turning point. Trump said a cease - fire agreement may be near. Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy facilities led to a short - term rise in oil prices [27]. - **North American hurricane forecast**: According to NOAA, the probability of this year's hurricane activity exceeding the normal level is 60%, but it is relatively calm compared to last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and no potential cyclones are expected to form in the key areas of the Gulf of Mexico in the next 7 days [29]. 3.3 Price, Spread, Cracking - **Crude oil futures and spot trends**: Various charts show the trends of crude oil futures and spot prices, including different types of crude oil and related indicators such as net long positions in futures and options [32][34][37]. - **Crude oil futures structure and spreads**: Charts display the structure of crude oil futures (such as the prices of different contract months) and various spreads (monthly spreads, cross - market futures spreads, cross - market spot spreads, etc.) [40][43][46]. - **Saudi OSP**: Saudi Arabia adjusted its official selling prices (OSP) for different regions and different grades of crude oil in October compared to September [56]. - **Refined product prices and cracking**: Charts show the prices and cracking spreads of refined product futures and spot in different regions (US, Europe, Asia, etc.) [61][63][66]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global crude oil supply**: It includes the supply of OPEC, non - OPEC, and the total global supply. Data shows the historical and predicted values of these supplies [82]. - **Non - OPEC and OPEC supply details**: Details of non - OPEC supply from countries like the US, the former Soviet Union, China, and Brazil, as well as OPEC supply (including production, capacity, and supply from major countries and exempt countries) are presented [85][88][91]. - **Global rig count**: Information on the number of rigs in the US, Canada, and globally, as well as the number of US oil rigs and related production indicators [97][99]. - **Refinery unit shutdown volume**: Data on the shutdown volume of CDU and FCC units globally, in the US, Northwest Europe, and Asia [102][104]. - **Global crude oil demand**: It includes the demand of OECD and non - OECD regions and the total global demand, with historical and predicted values [106]. - **Inventory data**: Inventory data for the US, OECD, and other regions (such as Europe, Japan, ARA, Singapore, and China) are provided [114][117][119]. - **EIA balance sheet**: The EIA balance sheet shows the supply, consumption, balance, and balance changes of global crude oil from 2025 to 2026 [134]. 3.5 EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA weekly report main data**: It includes data on crude oil production, commercial crude oil inventory, refinery operating rate, and total crude oil chain inventory [149]. - **Supply data**: Data on the production of crude oil, gasoline, distillates, jet fuel, residual fuel oil, propane - propylene, and their yields are presented [152][155].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report implies a relatively bearish outlook for the oil market [8] 2. Report's Core View - The EIA report for the week is a mixed bag, with a significant decline in crude oil inventory exceeding market expectations and a substantial drop in gasoline inventory. However, more forward - looking data shows weakness, such as the decline in refinery operating rates indicating the start of autumn maintenance, and the poor performance of distillates leading to a counter - seasonal increase in inventory, which may promote refinery maintenance. Overall, it is a relatively bearish report [8] 3. Summary by Related Data 3.1 Inventory Data - As of September 12, U.S. commercial crude oil total inventory was 415.361 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 857,000 barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 296,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 504,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 2.347 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 1 million barrels, while distillate inventory increased by 4.046 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1 million barrels [2][3] - The total inventory of the U.S. crude oil chain increased by 1.675 million barrels [3] 3.2 Production, Import, and Processing Data - U.S. crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil net imports decreased by 3.111 million barrels per day to 415,000 barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil processing volume decreased by 394,000 barrels per day to 16.424 million barrels per day [3] 3.3 Demand Data - U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 217,250 barrels per day to 20.671 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. gasoline apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 8,000 barrels per day to 8.91875 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. distillate apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 86,500 barrels per day to 3.72675 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. jet fuel apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 69,000 barrels per day to 1.70275 million barrels per day [3] 3.4 Market Impact and Analysis - The large - scale decline in U.S. crude oil inventory last week was mainly due to a significant increase in exports, resulting in a large decrease in net imports. The single - week export data reached 5.277 million barrels per day, a new high since 2024. However, the domestic refinery operating rate decreased by 1.6% to 93.3%, indicating the gradual start of traditional autumn maintenance [4] - In the traditional autumn harvest consumption season, distillate demand decreased instead of increasing, causing inventory to rise during the period of declining refinery operating rates. The current large increase in distillate inventory is counter - seasonal, which may affect distillate cracking and accelerate the progress of refinery autumn maintenance [6] - After the release of the EIA report, oil prices fell slightly and further declined after the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil remains under the pressure of the large - supply narrative in the medium to long term. As supply continues to increase and autumn maintenance deepens, the supply - demand imbalance will become more significant, and oil prices will be pressured accordingly. Short - term interference factors mainly include Middle East geopolitical situations and potential sanctions against Russia. Next week, the Fed meeting needs attention [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's monthly report view: Crude oil is under long - term supply pressure. If OPEC+ continues to increase production at the Sunday meeting, combined with seasonal weakness in demand and US autumn maintenance, the supply - demand imbalance will be more obvious, and oil prices will be pressured. Short - term interference factors include OPEC+ meeting results, Russia - Ukraine peace talks progress, sanctions, and the Fed's September meeting decision. - This week's price trend: Oil prices first rose and then fell. The rise was due to OPEC+'s less - than - expected production increase, Middle East geopolitics, and potential sanctions against Russia. However, oil prices turned down after institutional monthly reports maintained the large - supply narrative. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand is continuously loose, terminal demand is okay, and the US is about to enter the autumn maintenance period (2.1 - 2.4). - Institutional monthly reports: IEA and EIA continue the large - supply narrative and predict a significant increase in inventory (2.5 - 2.8). - OPEC+: Still committed to competing for market share (2.9 - 2.12). - Fed's September meeting: The market has fully priced in a 25BP interest rate cut, but the focus is on the dot plot and economic forecasts (2.13) [9]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights - **2.1 Global near - month spreads oscillated weakly**: Global main market Brent and WTI near - month spreads continued to decline, indicating a further slowdown in spot supply - demand, which is a relatively negative signal [11][13]. - **2.2 Crack spreads still have support**: Global spot prices generally still have support. US spot crack spreads oscillated, while those in Northwest Europe and Singapore increased slightly. Combining with 2.1, although terminal demand is okay, leading to stable or rebounding crack spreads in some regions, the supply increase is greater, causing the near - end spreads to weaken [14][15][16]. - **2.3 Fundamental quantitative indicators (beta version)**: The current comprehensive fundamental indicator of crude oil is negative, triggered from the close on 9/10 and lasting for 2 days. The forward - looking fundamental indicator is neutral, with the last signal being negative from 7/31 to 8/1 [19]. - **2.4 US inventory and demand situation**: As of September 5, the US refinery utilization rate increased by 0.6% month - on - month to 94.9%, indicating that traditional autumn maintenance has not fully started. All major crude oil product inventories increased this week, with gasoline inventory unexpectedly rising and distillate inventory rising far beyond expectations, driving a significant increase in the total inventory of the crude oil chain. Gasoline implied demand dropped to 850.8 million barrels per day, far lower than the previous level of around 9 million barrels per day. Distillate inventory increase is against the seasonal trend, which will suppress future refinery utilization rates and corresponding refining demand [21]. - **2.5 Main energy institutions' September report views summary**: IEA, OPEC, and EIA have different forecasts for demand and supply growth rates. IEA and EIA have continuously raised supply forecasts, and EIA predicts a significant decline in Brent crude oil prices in the next few months due to supply increases [22]. - **2.8 EIA monthly report balance sheet changes**: EIA comprehensively raised the supply and demand forecasts for the second half of this year and all quarters of next year, with a larger increase in the supply side, making the balance sheet looser month by month. The core driving logic is supply increase, and demand increase is a passive result of falling oil prices [30]. - **2.10 OPEC+ announced a 137,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in October**: In the September 7 meeting, OPEC+ announced a gradual withdrawal from the 1.65 - million - barrel - per - day production cut agreement starting in October and a 137,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in that month. Except for Kazakhstan's continuous over - production, other countries have well - implemented the plan [36]. - **2.13 Attention to the Fed's September interest - rate meeting**: US employment data is weak, and inflation data is stubborn. The market has fully priced in a 25BP interest rate cut in September. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25BP in September, but the subsequent rate - cut path depends on economic data and Fed independence. The number of preventive interest - rate cuts is determined by the employment market and overall economic performance, which is generally negative for crude oil, except when core inflation significantly declines [42]. - **2.14 North American hurricane forecast**: According to NOAA's forecast, this year's hurricane activity has a 60% chance of exceeding the normal level but is relatively calm compared to last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and no potential cyclones are expected to form in the key Gulf of Mexico area in the next 7 days [44]. 3.3 Price, Spreads, and Crack Spreads - **3.1 Crude oil futures and spot trends**: Presented the trends of Brent, WTI, Oman, and SC crude oil futures and spot prices [47]. - **3.3 WTI crude oil position report**: Showed the net long positions of WTI futures and options and related position - price relationships [52]. - **3.4 Crude oil futures structure**: Displayed the futures price structures of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC [55]. - **3.5 Crude oil spreads**: Presented the spreads of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC (M1 - M2, M1 - M3, etc.) [58]. - **3.6 Cross - market futures spreads**: Showed cross - market futures spreads such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, etc. [60]. - **3.7 Cross - market spot spreads**: Presented cross - market spot spreads like Brent - WTI, Brent - Dubai, etc. [63]. - **3.8 American spot spreads**: Displayed American spot spreads such as Midland - Cushing, LLS - MARS, etc. [66]. - **3.9 Asian spot spreads**: Presented Asian spot spreads such as Tapis - Dubai, Tapis - Minas [69]. - **3.10 Saudi OSP**: Saudi Arabia announced a reduction in the October crude oil premium for all regions, with a reduction range of 0.6 - 1.0 US dollars per barrel, exceeding market expectations [39][70]. - **3.14 Refined product spot prices**: Showed the spot prices of refined products in the US Gulf, New York Harbor, Northwest Europe, and Singapore [80]. - **3.15 Refined product spot crack spreads**: Presented the spot crack spreads of refined products in the US Gulf, New York Harbor, Northwest Europe, and Singapore [83]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **4.1 Global crude oil total supply**: Presented the supply trends of global, non - OPEC+, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil [96]. - **4.2 Non - OPEC crude oil total supply**: Showed the supply trends of non - OPEC countries such as the US, the former Soviet Union region, China, and Brazil [99]. - **4.3 OPEC crude oil total supply**: Displayed OPEC's crude oil production, capacity, and remaining capacity trends [102]. - **4.4 OPEC crude oil supply - major countries**: Showed the crude oil supply trends of major OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait [105]. - **4.5 OPEC crude oil supply - exempt countries**: Presented the crude oil supply trends of OPEC exempt countries such as Iran, Libya, and Venezuela [108]. - **4.6 Global rig count**: Showed the rig counts of the US, Canada, and the global total [111]. - **4.7 US crude oil rigs**: Displayed the US rig count, uncompleted well number, single - well new production, and oil - gas total production [113]. - **4.9 FCC unit outages**: Presented the FCC unit outage volumes globally, in the US, Northwest Europe, and Asia [118]. - **4.11 OECD crude oil total demand**: Showed the demand trends of OECD countries such as the US, Canada, Europe, and Japan [122]. - **4.12 Non - OECD crude oil total demand**: Presented the demand trends of non - OECD countries such as China, Russia, India, and Brazil [125]. - **4.13 Crude oil total inventory**: Showed the inventory trends of the US, OECD, and global total inventory and consumption [128]. - **4.17 EIA balance sheet**: Presented the EIA's supply, consumption, balance, and balance change data from 2025Q3 to 2026Q4 [148]. - **4.19 Singapore refined product inventory**: Showed the inventory trends of light distillates, middle distillates, residue, and total refined products in Singapore [142].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - to long - term outlook for oil prices is bearish, but the short - term market is subject to supply - side disturbances [8] Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly report is relatively bearish. Although refinery operating rates indicate that U.S. refineries have not fully started autumn maintenance, inventory and demand indicators suggest it is inevitable. With declining refining demand and increasing supply, oil prices are bearish in the medium to long term, while the short - term market is affected by supply - side factors [8] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Main Data - As of September 5, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 424,646 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 393,900 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 100,000 barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 36,500 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 51,400 barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventories increased by 145,800 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 20,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 471,500 barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 4,000 barrels [2][3] - U.S. crude oil production increased by 72 thousand barrels per day to 13,495 thousand barrels per day, and net imports increased by 668 thousand barrels per day to 3,526 thousand barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil processing volume decreased by 51 thousand barrels per day to 16,818 thousand barrels per day [3] - The four - week smoothed values of U.S. crude oil, gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel terminal apparent demand all decreased [3] 2. Report Review - Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased due to a significant drop in exports leading to increased net imports. However, the sustainability of the export decline needs further observation as there is a periodic decline pattern at the beginning of the month [4] - Refinery operating rates increased by 0.6% week - on - week to 94.9%, indicating that traditional autumn maintenance has not fully begun [4] 3. Product Oil Situation - All major crude oil product inventories rose this week, with gasoline inventories unexpectedly rising and distillate inventories rising far more than expected, driving a significant increase in the total crude oil chain inventory [6] - Except for propane and propylene, the four - week smoothed values of all terminal demand categories decreased. The single - week implied demand for gasoline was only 850,800 barrels per day, far lower than the previous level of around 900,000 barrels per day, which is in line with seasonal patterns [6] - The significant increase in distillate inventories is counter - seasonal. Usually, after September, distillate inventories tend to decline during refinery autumn maintenance and the autumn harvest consumption peak, but this week's large - scale inventory build - up will suppress future refinery operating rates and corresponding refining demand [6]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Monthly Report - Supply-Demand Imbalance May Become More Pronounced [1] - Author: Xiao Yu - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] Group 2: Monthly View - Last Month's View: In August, attention was on the trend of diesel cracking. If diesel cracking continued to weaken, it would put pressure on oil prices. There were also significant disturbances such as Russian oil sanctions and whether OPEC+ would further reduce production in the fourth quarter [9] - This Month's Price Trend: Oil prices declined at the beginning of August due to optimistic expectations for the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Two positive EIA weekly reports and slow progress in the peace talks led to a rebound in the second half of the month, but oil prices were pressured again as OPEC+ might increase production [9] - Fundamental Factors: Crude oil supply is expected to increase continuously. The US is about to enter the autumn maintenance period, and diesel cracking remains strong [9] - Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: The peace process has stalled. If there is no substantial progress, it may lead to sanctions risks [9] - Fed's September Meeting: It is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the focus is on the dot plot and economic forecasts [9] - Monthly View: Crude oil is still under pressure from the large supply narrative in the medium to long term. If OPEC+ continues to increase production at the Sunday meeting, combined with the seasonal weakness in demand and the US autumn maintenance, the supply-demand imbalance will become more significant, and oil prices will be pressured accordingly. Short-term interference factors include the results of the OPEC+ meeting, the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and sanctions, and the decision of the Fed's September meeting [9] Group 3: Monthly Highlights - Global Near-Term Spread: The global near-term spread showed a downward trend in August, indicating a slowdown in spot supply and demand, which is a relatively negative signal [11][12] - Crack Spread: The crack spread still has support. The US spot crack spread showed a volatile trend, while those in Northwest Europe and Singapore increased slightly [14][15] - OPEC+ Production: From the OPEC monthly report, OPEC+ has generally met the production increase targets, with Kazakhstan still overproducing significantly. From the IEA monthly report, some countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have overproduced. OPEC+ is expected to continue to increase production to regain market share [19][20] - US Refinery Operations: As of August 29, the US refinery operating rate declined for the second consecutive week. With the end of the driving peak season, refineries will enter the autumn maintenance period, which will directly suppress crude oil demand [22] - Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: The peace process has stalled, and the fundamental differences between the two sides on territorial and security issues are difficult to resolve. The lack of progress may add risk premiums to the market [23] - Fed's Interest Rate Decision: The market has almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in September. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, but the subsequent rate cut path depends on economic data and the Fed's independence. Generally, preventive rate cuts have a negative impact on crude oil, but if core inflation drops significantly, rate cuts can be positive [26] - North American Hurricane Forecast: According to NOAA's forecast, this year's hurricane activity has a 60% chance of exceeding the normal level, but it is relatively calm compared to last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and no potential cyclones are expected to form in the key areas in the next 7 days [28] Group 4: Price, Spread, and Crack - Crude Oil Futures and Spot Trends: The report presents the trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including OPEC's basket price, WTI, Brent, and Dubai crude oil [31] - WTI and Brent Futures Positions: The report shows the net long positions of futures and options for WTI and Brent, as well as the positions of different market participants such as swap dealers, managed funds, and producers [33][36] - Crude Oil Futures Structure: The report displays the futures structure of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC, including the prices of different contract months [39] - Crude Oil Calendar Spreads: The report shows the trends of calendar spreads for different crude oils, such as M1 - M2, M1 - M3, etc. [42] - Cross-Market Futures and Spot Spreads: The report presents the cross-market futures and spot spreads, such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, etc. [45][48] - Saudi OSP: Saudi Arabia has adjusted its official selling prices (OSP) for different grades of crude oil to different regions, with price increases for Asian destinations and price decreases for Mediterranean destinations [55] - Refined Product Prices and Crack Spreads: The report shows the prices and crack spreads of refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil in different regions, including the US, Europe, and Asia [60][62] Group 5: Supply-Demand and Inventory Balance Sheet - Global Crude Oil Supply: The report presents the supply of global, non-OPEC, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil, including production, capacity, and remaining capacity [81][83][86] - Global Rig Count: The report shows the number of oil rigs in the US, Canada, and globally, as well as the number of oil and gas rigs in different regions of the US [95] - US Refinery Shutdowns: The report presents the shutdown volumes of CDU and FCC units globally, in the US, Northwest Europe, and Asia [99][101] - Global Crude Oil Demand: The report shows the demand for global, OECD, and non-OECD crude oil, as well as the demand in different countries and regions [103][106][109] - Crude Oil Inventory: The report presents the inventory of crude oil in the US, OECD, and different countries and regions, including total inventory, commercial inventory, and strategic reserve [112][115][117] - EIA Balance Sheet: The EIA balance sheet shows the global crude oil supply, consumption, balance, and balance changes from 2025 to 2026 [132]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's main view: This week, refinery operations declined, but next week, refinery operations are expected to pick up. Currently, asphalt has entered the peak season, and the upside space depends on whether demand can drive down social inventory. However, demand is restricted by the capital side and is not expected to have significant upside potential, mainly following the cost side [7]. - This week's trend analysis: This week, the asphalt trend showed a rise followed by a fall, generally following the trend of the cost-side crude oil [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, both supply and demand of refineries decreased, and the decline in refinery operations led to a low-level drop in refinery inventory. The previously persistent social inventory decreased slightly this week, but the curve still significantly lags behind the same period in previous years. As the peak season deepens, it will limit the upside space of asphalt [7]. - This week's main view: Next week, refinery operations are expected to pick up, and some large facilities in the north have plans to resume production. Currently, asphalt consumption has entered the peak season, and the upside space depends on whether demand can drive down social inventory. However, demand is restricted by the capital side and is not expected to have significant upside potential, mainly following the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 01 Weekly Viewpoint - The report analyzes the asphalt market from last week to this week, including refinery operations, inventory changes, and market trends, and provides a forecast for next week, emphasizing that the market is mainly affected by cost and demand [7]. 3.2 02 Data Overview - **2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis**: Presents the trends of asphalt futures prices, monthly spreads (BU9 - BU12), and basis in East China and Shandong regions, with data sources from Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11]. - **2.2 Asphalt Supply**: Displays data on asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate, sourced from Steel Union Data [12][13][14]. - **2.3 Asphalt Demand**: Shows data on asphalt shipments, apparent consumption, paver sales, and the product of paver sales and asphalt apparent consumption, sourced from Steel Union Data [15][16][17]. - **2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports**: Presents data on asphalt imports, exports, import windows in East China and South China, and the price differences between imported完税 prices from South Korea and Singapore and the mainstream prices in East China and South China, sourced from Steel Union Data [18][19][20]. - **2.5 Asphalt Inventory**: Displays data on refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume, sourced from Steel Union Data [21][22][23]. - **2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Shows data on the operating rate, shipments, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in Shandong, sourced from Steel Union Data [24][25][26]. - **2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Presents data on the operating rate, shipments, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in East China, sourced from Steel Union Data [27][28][29]. - **2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Displays data on the operating rate, shipments, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in South China, sourced from Steel Union Data [30][31][32]. - **Asphalt Production Enterprise Maintenance Information**: Lists the maintenance information of multiple asphalt production enterprises, including the maintenance device, production capacity, maintenance time, end time, and the total annual production capacity and maintenance loss volume [33].