软商品日报：外棉下方空间压缩，郑棉短期震荡观望-2025-03-27

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Report's Core View - The 2024/25 sugar production is nearing its end, with northern beet sugar mills shut down and southern cane sugar mills entering the crushing stage. As of the end of February 2025, China's cumulative sugar production reached 9.72 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.77 million tons; cumulative sugar sales were 4.75 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.97 million tons; the sales progress was 48.9%, 1.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year. In March, continuous rainfall in Guangxi, Yunnan and other places alleviated the drought, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth, but weather changes still need to be monitored. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production decreased compared to the previous year, and India's production also fell short of expectations, widening the international supply-demand gap [1] - In the domestic cotton market, commercial inventories are at a five-year high, with relatively sufficient supply. After the Spring Festival, textile enterprises gradually resumed production, with the operating rate rising to a high level and the delivery speed of textile products accelerating. Internationally, the cotton export volumes of the United States and Brazil increased compared to the same period last year, and the market outlook for the textile industry is cautiously optimistic. The new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is about to enter the sowing period, and the sowing situation in major producing countries needs to be monitored [1] Data Summary Price and Spread - From March 25 to March 26, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.92%, from $19.55 to $19.37; the price of US cotton increased by 0.94%, from $65.13 to $65.74 [3] - The spot price of sugar in Nanning remained unchanged at 6,150 yuan, while in Kunming it increased by 0.08%, from 6,000 yuan to 6,005 yuan. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.01%, from 3,281 to 3,280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.68%, from 14,650 yuan to 14,550 yuan [3] - The spreads of sugar and cotton futures contracts showed different degrees of change, such as SR01 - 05 increasing by 1.59%, SR05 - 09 decreasing by 11.21%, etc. [3] Basis and Import Price - The basis of sugar and cotton futures contracts also changed, for example, the basis of sugar 01 decreased by 17.35%, and the basis of cotton 01 decreased by 3.86% [3] - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 77.75 from March 25 to March 26, 2025, and the sugar import profit also remained unchanged at 864 [3] Option and Warehouse Receipt - The implied volatility of sugar and cotton options contracts is different, such as SR505C6100 with an implied volatility of 0.1102 and CF505C13600 with an implied volatility of 0.0767 [3] - The number of sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 27,950, while the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.26%, from 9,141 to 9,117 [3]