宁证期货今日早评-2025-03-27

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report provides short - term and medium - term outlooks for various commodities, including gold, crude oil, etc., and offers trading suggestions based on market conditions and influencing factors [2][3]. Group 3: Commodity Summaries Gold - Concerns about the global trade war have weakened the liquidity of the US stock market. The liquidity indicators of Deutsche Bank and Citigroup based on the S&P 500 stock index futures are at a two - year low. The global tariff war has intensified, and the risk - aversion sentiment still exists. The US stocks lack upward momentum, and the rebound of the US dollar index is limited. The Fed is still observing the need for further interest rate cuts. Precious metals have limited short - term upward momentum but are expected to be bullish in the medium term [2]. Crude Oil - The EIA report shows that the US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.341 million barrels to 434 million barrels in the week ending March 21, a decrease of 0.76%. The gasoline inventory decreased by 1.446 million barrels. The US domestic crude oil production increased by 0.1 million barrels to 13.574 million barrels per day. The market's concern about global supply shortages has intensified due to the decline in US crude oil and refined product inventories and the US threat to impose tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan crude oil. International oil prices have risen by 1%. Supply - side factors are affecting the market, and geopolitics and sanctions are the main driving forces for the rebound of crude oil. It is recommended to buy on dips [3]. 螺纹钢 - On March 26, the domestic steel market fluctuated. The ex - factory tax - included price of ordinary billets in Qian'an, Tangshan remained stable at 3,070 yuan/ton. One steel mill raised the price of building materials by 20 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3,382 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The fundamentals have improved during the construction season, and steel prices have been strong recently. However, the slow recovery of demand remains unchanged, especially the poor sales of high - priced resources. Traders mainly focus on quick - in and quick - out operations, and speculative demand is average. In the short term, the upward trend of steel prices is weakening, and they may adjust slightly [5]. 焦煤 - This week, the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants in the country was 61.99%, a decrease of 0.61% from the previous period. The daily average output was 522,400 tons, a decrease of 7,800 tons. The raw coal inventory was 2.7149 million tons, a decrease of 18,300 tons. The clean coal inventory was 2.1392 million tons, a decrease of 149,500 tons. Terminal hot metal production has continued to rise, demand has improved, and after 11 consecutive rounds of price cuts for coke, the price has dropped to a multi - year low. Some coal mines have reached the production cost line, some speculative demand has been released, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm has also improved. However, there is still a lack of continuous upward driving force. It is expected that the coal - coke market will remain stable in the short term [5]. 国债 - Chinese and US economic and trade leaders had a video call, exchanging views on important issues in the bilateral economic and trade field. The negative impact of tariffs may gradually appear, and the risk - aversion sentiment has boosted the bond market rebound. There are still expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the market, and the market may return to the economic fundamentals. With the continuous issuance of bonds, the capital side remains tight, which still puts pressure on the bond market. The influencing factors of treasury bonds are more complex, with a short - term rebound and a medium - term oscillation. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. 生猪 - On March 26, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 119.1, unchanged from the previous day, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 120.15, also unchanged. As of 14:00 on March 26, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.94 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.3% from the previous day. Recently, the national pig price has remained stable. Farmers are selling pigs according to the market, small - scale farmers are waiting and watching, and some enterprises are controlling the supply. However, slaughtering enterprises are still cautious in purchasing, and demand is weak. The supply - demand game continues. It is recommended to go long on near - month contracts in the short term and long - term layout of the LH2509 contract. Farmers can sell hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. 棕榈油 - From March 1 - 25, 2025, the single - yield of fresh palm fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 7.01%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.33%, and the palm oil production increased by 5.10%. The export volume of palm oil products from March 1 - 25 was 678,698 tons, a decrease of 29,978 tons or 4.23% compared with the same period last month. The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased while exports have decreased, and overseas consumption demand is weak, lacking positive news. In China, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has been inverted. Recently, some ships have arrived at ports in some markets, and downstream buyers are purchasing at low prices for rigid demand. Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to international biodiesel policies, high - frequency supply - demand data from the origin, and domestic inventory changes [7]. PTA - The CFR price of PX is currently 837 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N is 202 US dollars/ton. The price of PTA in East China is 4,900 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost of PTA is 4,741 yuan/ton. The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 11 - 21 days. In the second quarter, the de - stocking expectation of PX is considerable, and the PX price is expected to be supported. For PTA, attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance of PTA plants such as Yisheng Hainan in April. Downstream, the inventory of weaving grey cloth is high, and the orders after the Spring Festival are poor. The operating rate of weaving is approaching the peak and is lower than last year. If orders remain weak, the operating rate may be reduced. Overall, maintenance supports the rebound of PTA, but the negative feedback of terminal demand affects the improvement of PTA processing fees and market sentiment. It is recommended to buy on dips [7][9]. 甲醇 - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton. The methanol production capacity utilization rate is 85.27%, a weekly decrease of 0.79%. The 1 - million - ton/year coal - to - methanol plant of Inner Mongolia Jiutai has completed maintenance this week. The total downstream production capacity utilization rate is 75.47%, a weekly decrease of 0.73%. The inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 773,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 26,300 tons. The inventory of sample methanol production enterprises is 327,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 17,600 tons. The orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 236,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 13,700 tons. The expected price of coal on the cost side is weak. The current profit of methanol is acceptable, and the domestic methanol production is expected to operate at a high level. Downstream demand is gradually recovering. This week, the methanol port inventory continued to decrease. The main storage areas in Jiangsu had good提货 under the support of trans - shipment and downstream shipments along the Yangtze River. The auction of inland methanol enterprises was acceptable. The basis of the port methanol market is weakly stable, and the negotiation and trading volume is average. It is expected that the methanol 05 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2,560 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short - term long [8]. 纯碱 - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash in the country is 1,509 yuan/ton, and the price is relatively stable. The operating rate of soda ash is 85.3%, unchanged from the previous day. The maintenance of Jinshan and Jiangsu Jingshen has ended, and the equipment of Yanhu and Qinghai Kunlun has been restored. The new production capacity of 1.1 million tons/year of Lianyungang Alkali Industry is expected to be put into operation in the first quarter. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.6878 million tons, a decrease of 2.73% from the previous period. The operating rate of float glass is 75.76%, a weekly decrease of 0.34%. The average price of float glass in the country is 1,266 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises in the country is 69.46 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.13% from the previous period. The operating rate of float glass is relatively stable, and the factory shipments in the Shahe market are generally good, but the market is still tepid. Downstream buyers are purchasing for rigid demand. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillating, with supply hovering at a high level, new orders being average, and downstream demand being average, mainly for on - demand procurement. It is expected that the soda ash 05 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 1,420 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short - term long [10].