渤海证券研究所晨会纪要-2025-03-27

Industry Overview - The global refined copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 19,000 tons by January 2025 according to ICSG [3] - The U.S. government is considering using wartime powers to increase production of critical minerals such as rare earths [3] Company News - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals' subsidiary, Guangxi Gaofeng Mining Co., is investing in the deep mining project of ore bodies 100 and 105 [3] Weekly Industry Strategy and Stock Recommendations - Steel: As the peak season characteristics become more evident, steel inventory is expected to continue decreasing. If the fundamentals of steel improve, prices may be supported, but attention should be paid to downstream demand and macroeconomic factors [3] - Copper: The copper market remains tight, with a projected supply shortage of 19,000 tons by January 2025. Domestic macro policies are supportive of copper prices, but high prices may suppress downstream demand. The direction of U.S. tariff policies is also a concern [3] - Aluminum: The EU may tighten aluminum import controls, potentially impacting domestic aluminum exports. Current expectations of a loose domestic macro economy and solar energy installation demand are supportive of aluminum prices [4] - Gold: U.S. tariff policies continue to disrupt the market, while geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations and Middle East instability, are supporting gold prices [4] - Lithium: With lithium salt plants resuming normal production in March, supply is expected to increase. Policies promoting "old-for-new" exchanges and charging infrastructure subsidies may stimulate downstream demand, but an oversupply situation is likely to persist [4] Investment Strategy - Copper/Aluminum: Continuous disruptions in copper supply are expected to support prices, while new projects in alumina production may expand profits for electrolytic aluminum plants. Attention should be paid to domestic policies driving demand [4] - Gold: Recent increases in gold prices are linked to risk aversion and central bank purchases. Long-term factors such as high U.S. debt and deficit rates, potential re-inflation risks, and complex global geopolitical situations are favorable for gold prices [4] Ratings - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry. It also maintains "Buy" ratings for companies including Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Shandong Gold (600547), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) [5]