Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bonds are recommended for profit - taking and waiting [1][5]. - Black Building Materials: Rebar, iron ore, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate, with iron ore showing a slightly weaker trend [1][5][7]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended for buying on dips, aluminum for buying on dips in a stepped manner, nickel for waiting and watching or short - selling on rallies, tin for taking partial profits on previous long positions, and silver and gold for building positions on dips [1][12][14][16]. - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; urea is for range - bound operation; soda ash recommends holding short positions in call options; and PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][20][22][25][27]. - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate, apples to strengthen with fluctuations, and PTA to fluctuate weakly [1][26][27]. - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly, eggs have strong support in the near - term and are recommended for short - selling on rallies in the far - term, corn is recommended for buying on dips, soymeal is recommended for cautious long - positions in the short - term and long - positions in the far - term, and oils are for range - bound operation [1][28][32][34][35]. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as A - share earnings announcements, Trump's tariff policies, and Fed's interest - rate decisions. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand fundamentals and external policy impacts [5][12][18]. - In the short term, most products are in a state of fluctuation, and investors need to pay attention to market sentiment, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics. In the long term, factors such as supply - demand balance, cost changes, and trade policies will continue to affect product prices [7][24][39]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - Index Futures: With A - shares entering the earnings announcement period and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy on April 2, market risk appetite may fluctuate. IC and IM may offer better entry opportunities after a moderate correction [5]. - Treasury Bonds: There is a lack of short - term negative news in the bond market, and bulls are dominant. However, pay attention to the profit - taking pressure caused by overly consistent market expectations [5]. Black Building Materials - Rebar: The futures price is expected to fluctuate. The market is concerned about the peak of demand, and the impact of policies and tariffs needs further observation. The short - term range for RB2505 is [3130 - 3300] [7]. - Iron Ore: Affected by steel production restrictions and macro - economic factors, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies [7]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The supply - demand contradiction in the coking coal market is gradually alleviated, and the price may stabilize. The coke market's supply - demand contradiction has also eased, but the rebound space depends on terminal demand and steel mill profits [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price may fluctuate at a high level. Although there is a risk of a high - level correction, it is generally easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and buy on dips [12]. - Aluminum: The supply and demand situation is complex. With the impact of policies and tariffs, the price may have room for correction. It is recommended to buy on dips in a stepped manner [13][14]. - Nickel: Affected by macro - factors and supply - demand changes, it is recommended to wait and watch or short - sell on rallies [14]. - Tin: The supply is expected to increase marginally, and the demand may be supported by the recovery of the semiconductor industry. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions [16]. - Silver and Gold: Affected by factors such as the Fed's policy and Trump's tariff policy, it is recommended to build positions on dips [18][19]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. Although there are expectations of spring maintenance and seasonal recovery in demand, the rebound space is limited [20][21]. - Caustic Soda: The current inventory is high, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [22]. - Urea: The supply is still abundant, and the demand is stable. The inventory is in the seasonal destocking stage. The price may be under pressure in the medium term [23][24]. - Methanol: The supply is at a medium - high level, and the demand has some support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [24][25]. - Soda Ash: Although the demand has improved, the supply has increased rapidly, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [25]. - PTA: It follows the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. The short - term is affected by factors such as the restart of maintenance devices and the slowdown of inventory accumulation [27]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The market consumption is not strong, but the acceptance of low prices is high, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [26]. - Apples: The出库 is good, and the inventory is low. The price is expected to strengthen with fluctuations [26]. - PTA: It is expected to fluctuate weakly and is in the range of 4700 - 5000 [27]. Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The short - term supply pressure is postponed, and the long - term supply is abundant. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [28][30]. - Eggs: The short - term supply and demand increase simultaneously, and the long - term supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hedge on rallies in the near - term and short - sell in the far - term [31][32]. - Corn: The short - term lacks new positive drivers, and the long - term supply and demand are tightening. It is recommended to buy on dips [32]. - Soymeal: The short - term is affected by South American bumper harvests and shows a weak trend, while the long - term price has support. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and long - position lightly in the long - term [34]. - Oils: In the short - term, the trends are further differentiated, and in the medium - term, there is a high possibility of a downward trend. It is recommended to wait and watch for soybean and palm oil and pay attention to the pressure level for rapeseed oil, and conduct arbitrage operations [35][39][40].
期货市场交易指引-2025-03-27
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-03-27 06:42