TSC(000877) 天风证券·2025-03-27 07:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company's Q4 performance showed significant improvement, with expectations for a recovery in cement prices leading to better overall performance [4]. - The company reported a total revenue of 869.95 billion yuan for the year 2024, a decrease of 18.98% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -5.98 billion yuan [1]. - In Q4 alone, the company achieved revenue of 255.36 billion yuan and a net profit of 31.49 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year decrease of 5.40% in revenue but an increase of 64.52% in net profit [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The cement and clinker business generated revenue of 555.9 billion yuan in 2024, down 22% year-on-year, with sales volume decreasing by 15% to 225 million tons [2]. - The average selling price per ton of cement decreased by 23 yuan to 247 yuan/ton, while the cost per ton also fell by 23 yuan to 209 yuan/ton, resulting in a stable gross profit margin of 39 yuan per ton [2]. - The overall gross margin for the company was 16.72%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 gross margin reaching 24.79%, up 5.32 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 124.60 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.91 billion yuan year-on-year [3]. Future Earnings Projections - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards to 26 billion yuan and 34 billion yuan, respectively, with an expected net profit of 39 billion yuan for 2027 [4].