乳品：政策提振，供需格局有望改善

Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry [4][28] Core Viewpoints - The dairy sector has attracted significant market attention, benefiting from the expected improvement in the supply - demand pattern and the stimulation of the three - child subsidy policy. The dairy industry is expected to see a bottom - up recovery in fundamentals in the second half of the year [3][27] - The food and beverage sector has the opportunity for value re - evaluation. In the short term, it may initiate a recovery market at the beginning of economic warming; in the long - term, the improvement of fundamentals is highly certain, and the long - term logic of consumption upgrading remains stable [4][28] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - Since 2021, the Chinese dairy industry has faced the dual dilemmas of oversupply and weak demand, leading to a decline in raw milk prices and a large loss - making area in the raw milk industry [10] - In 2019, the profit of dairy cow breeding in China increased significantly, leading to an expansion of dairy cow breeding and a rapid growth in milk production. By 2023, China's milk production reached 41.97 million tons, nearly 14% higher than in 2021 [10] Demand Side - After 2021, affected by the consumption environment, the national dairy consumption declined. In 2022, the per - capita dairy consumption in China was 42.0 kg, 0.6 kg less than the previous year. In 2023, it slightly rebounded to 42.2 kg, but still only one - third of the world average [15] - Since the second half of 2021, the price of fresh milk has been continuously decreasing, and the loss - making area of the raw milk industry has exceeded 80%. Currently, the supply side is continuously reducing production capacity, and the raw milk price has dropped from the highest level of 4.38 yuan/kg in 2021 to 3.08 yuan/kg on March 13, 2025, a decrease of 29.7% [15] Supply - Demand Policy Boosting Confidence - Supply - side policy: The 2025 No. 1 Central Document proposed to promote the relief of the milk industry, stabilize the basic production capacity, implement the national standard for sterilized milk, and support the integrated development of dairy farming and processing. The upgrade of the dairy quality standard system will force industrial technology upgrading and accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity [16] - Demand - side policy: The 2025 "Government Work Report" pointed out measures to promote fertility, including issuing parenting subsidies and increasing the supply of inclusive childcare services [16] - Driven by policies, dairy demand is expected to pick up. The per - capita dairy consumption in China is low, and there is a large upward space for dairy demand. The raw milk price is expected to bottom out and stabilize, and the supply - demand pattern of the dairy industry is expected to improve next year [20] Dairy Industry Pattern in China - The current competition pattern of the dairy industry is relatively stable, forming a duopoly pattern of "two super - strong and many strong" [23] - The dairy consumption structure is mainly liquid milk and milk powder, with a relatively small proportion of cheese [24] Investment Suggestions - Focus on three directions in the dairy industry: leading enterprises with scale effects and product structure upgrading capabilities; enterprises with layouts in low - temperature dairy products and high - end products; upstream livestock enterprises [3][27] - Pay attention to two investment main lines in the food and beverage industry: sectors with large valuation elasticity such as dairy products, liquor, beer, and condiments; snack and soft drink sectors with high prosperity [4][28]