诚通证券-宏观点评：美国经济滞胀风险有多大-2025-03-27

Economic Outlook - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy has increased due to rising inflation expectations and recession fears, particularly influenced by Trump's policies[3][4] - The U.S. economy is still in an expansion phase, but short-term volatility is expected, with inflation risks outweighing recession risks[4][6] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer spending has shown signs of weakness, with retail and personal consumption expenditures declining by 1.4% and 0.15% respectively in January 2025[15] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell from 74 in December 2024 to 57.9 in March 2025, indicating declining consumer confidence[17] Trade and Export Dynamics - Net exports have decreased significantly, with trade deficits dropping by 51% and 97% year-on-year in December 2024 and January 2025 respectively[21] - The increase in imports, driven by preemptive purchases to avoid tariffs, has not significantly impacted domestic demand or GDP[21] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has adjusted its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%, while raising PCE inflation expectations from 2.5% to 2.8%[14][60] - The Fed is expected to lower interest rates twice in 2025, with a target federal funds rate around 3% by 2027[60][65] Labor Market and Wage Growth - The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.1% in February 2025, while wage growth remains robust at approximately 4%[14][40] - Labor supply growth may decline due to tightened immigration policies, potentially impacting wage and inflation dynamics[51][32]