华创证券-【华创策略】科技AI系列4：从康波周期看中美科技对比

Group 1 - The core variable determining the rise and fall of great powers is the trajectory of technological revolutions, making technological development strategically significant for both China and the US, with the sixth Kondratiev wave potentially aligning with China's modernization strategy [17][19][24] - Under the gold standard perspective, the price trends of the technology sectors in China and the US have shown a convergence since 2024, with Chinese stocks in fields like robotics and AI demonstrating relatively stronger performance [17][28][29] - In terms of core technological fields, China is catching up to the US, with notable advancements in renewable energy and AI, while still facing gaps in semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and aerospace [17][44][55] Group 2 - The information technology sector's market capitalization in the US significantly exceeds that in China, with US tech stocks accounting for 27.6% of the market by the end of 2024 compared to 15.8% in China, indicating an ongoing process of "technologization" in the Chinese market [17][18][40] - The valuation of Chinese tech stocks has historically been higher than that of US stocks, but it is expected to gradually align with mature markets in the future [18][40] Group 3 - China's R&D investment as a percentage of GDP has increased from 5% in 2018 to 6.9% in 2024, while the US has seen a rise from 3% in 2017 to 3.6% in 2024, indicating a narrowing gap in research capabilities [44][50] - In terms of research output, China has surpassed the US in the Nature Index score for the first time in 2023, reflecting significant progress in scientific research [45][49] - China has doubled the number of STEM master's graduates compared to the US, indicating a growing talent pool that supports technological innovation [51][52]