湘财证券-2025年第二季度宏观经济展望：政策助力经济行稳致远

Group 1: Economic Overview - CPI has been below 1% for 24 consecutive months, while PPI has shown negative growth for 29 months, indicating persistent low demand[4] - In February 2025, CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with food prices dropping by 3.3%[29] - The government plans to issue 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumption, doubling the subsidy scale from 2024[4] Group 2: Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment fell by 9.8% year-on-year in January-February 2025, with new construction down 29.6%[84] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market, with policies focusing on "ensuring project completion" and "maintaining sales" as priorities[8] - Sales in second-tier cities have shown the highest rebound, indicating a potential recovery in the housing market[88] Group 3: Manufacturing and Innovation - Manufacturing investment grew by 9.0% year-on-year in the first two months of 2025, continuing the strong performance from 2024[9] - The government emphasizes the integration of technological innovation and industrial development, supporting the growth of tech-driven enterprises[9] Group 4: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal policy for 2025 is set to be more proactive, with a historical high in fiscal spending planned[10] - A potential reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points is expected in the second quarter of 2025[10] Group 5: Consumer Market Insights - The consumer market is experiencing structural differentiation, with home appliance consumption growing by 39.3% year-on-year due to subsidy policies[58] - Urban retail sales increased by 3.8% year-on-year in January-February 2025, the highest since June 2024[63]