Guohai Securities·2025-03-27 09:34Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the beer industry, but it discusses the high-end market growth and potential investment opportunities in this segment. Core Insights - The high-end beer market in China has entered a mid-stage of development, with significant growth in large single products and an expanding premium price segment [3][9]. - The report predicts a slowdown in the high-end trend from 2023 to 2024, with an optimistic CAGR of 7.33% for beer prices in China from 2022 to 2027 [4][6]. - The overall beer market has stabilized, with low-price competition failing to generate growth, making high-end upgrades the long-term driver for price increases in the industry [5][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Price and Volume Review - The beer industry in China has undergone three phases: growth (2000-2012), contraction (2013-2017), and a decline in production (2018-2023) [11][24]. - During the growth phase, revenue increased from 446 billion to 1612 billion CNY, with a CAGR of 11.3% driven by volume growth [11]. - The contraction phase saw a slight decline in revenue, with a CAGR of -0.7%, as low-end price wars failed to yield significant market share [11][24]. - The current phase (2018-2023) is characterized by a focus on high-end products, with revenue growth returning to 1863 billion CNY, reflecting a CAGR of 4.8% [11][24]. High-End Market Review - The high-end market has expanded significantly, with major domestic manufacturers developing large single products that have reached scales exceeding 400,000 tons [3][9]. - The competition in the high-end segment remains dynamic, with the potential for major shifts in market share as brands establish their flagship products [3][9]. - The report emphasizes that the high-end market's growth is supported by an increase in middle-income consumers and urbanization, which enhances purchasing power [35][36]. Price Forecasting - The report forecasts that the average price of beer in China will grow at a CAGR of approximately 7.33% from 2022 to 2027, aligning with historical trends observed in the U.S. beer market [4][6][73]. - The price increase is attributed to structural upgrades in product offerings and the ability of manufacturers to implement price increases effectively [70][71]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape has shifted from volume-based competition to brand strength and product differentiation, particularly in the high-end segment [80]. - The report notes that the high-end beer market is increasingly dominated by younger consumers who prioritize quality over price, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [38][43]. Long-Term Drivers - The core consumer demographic (ages 20-50) is identified as a long-term driver of beer consumption, with changes in consumer preferences and income levels influencing demand [19][22]. - The report highlights that the growth of the middle class and urbanization are critical factors supporting the transition to premium beer consumption [35][36].