中原期货晨会纪要-2025-03-27

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is in a wide - range oscillation pattern. With the approach of the performance disclosure period, funds may shift from high - risk to low - risk assets, choosing sectors with performance support and high dividends. The previous AI - driven valuation repair market may end, and the core of both US and Chinese stock markets lies in economic fundamentals competition. The consumption sector, with continuous policy support and improved consumption data, can be a focus area. Currently, the strategy is defensive, waiting for the impact of events such as Trump's tariff policy on April 2nd. Investors should lower return expectations and wait for the market to stabilize. For futures, pay attention to low - buying opportunities after short - term adjustments and combination arbitrage strategies [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - Stock Index: On March 27, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index was 42454.79, down 0.312% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index was 17899.01, down 2.041%; the S&P 500 was 5712.20, down 1.116%; the Hang Seng Index was 23483.32, up 0.596% [2]. - Interest Rate and Exchange Rate: SHIBOR overnight was 1.79, up 0.01 from the previous day; the US dollar index was 104.63, up 0.086%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) was 7.26, unchanged [2]. - Commodity Futures (External Market): COMEX gold was 3026.60, up 0.013%; COMEX silver was 34.21, down 0.117%; LME copper was 9907.00, down 1.857%; LME aluminum was 2605.00, down 0.115%; etc. [2]. - Commodity Futures (Domestic Market): Gold was 708.84, down 0.025%; silver was 8355.00, down 0.131%; copper was 81520.00, down 0.585%; etc. [2]. - Chemical Futures: Coking coal was 1038.00, up 1.219%; coke was 1633.50, up 1.114%; natural rubber was 16905.00, unchanged; etc. [4]. - Agricultural Futures: Yellow soybean No.1 was 3880.00, up 0.077%; yellow soybean No.2 was 3450.00, up 0.262%; soybean meal was 2827.00, up 0.248%; etc. [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - Sino - US Economic and Trade Relations: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng had a video call with US Trade Representative Greer, expressing concerns about US tariff policies. The Ministry of Commerce opposed the US adding Chinese entities to the export control "Entity List" [6]. - Oil Price: International oil prices rose across the board, with US crude oil May contract up 1.36% to $69.94 per barrel and Brent crude oil June contract up 1.31% to $73.34 per barrel [6]. - Consumption Policy: The Ministry of Commerce issued measures to support the cultivation and construction of international consumption - center cities [6]. - Tariff Policy: Trump announced a 25% tariff on non - US - made cars, and tariffs on the pharmaceutical and timber industries [7]. - Carbon Emission Trading: The national carbon emission trading market expanded to include the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, covering over 60% of the country's total carbon dioxide emissions [7]. - Monetary Policy: Fed's Goolsbee warned that higher inflation expectations in the bond market could disrupt the central bank's rate - cut plan [7]. - Exchange Rate: On March 27, the on - shore Chinese yuan against the US dollar closed at 7.2635, up 5 basis points from the previous day [7]. - Housing Policy: Weihai, Shandong, and other regions introduced policies to promote housing consumption [8]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market is stable but weak. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and the market is in a supply - demand game. It is recommended to short on rebounds [10]. - Oils and Fats: The trading volume of oils and fats decreased by 17% compared to the previous trading day. The Brazilian soybean export forecast remains unchanged, and the market is expected to oscillate. High - selling and low - buying strategies are recommended [10]. - Sugar: The sugar futures were strong on March 26, but the spot price was under pressure. The market is multi - faceted, and attention should be paid to the start of the new Brazilian sugar - cane season. It is recommended to be cautious when going long above 6100 yuan/ton [10]. - Corn: The corn futures closed down on March 26. The market is affected by both supply and demand factors. It is recommended to wait and see, with support at 2250 yuan/ton and resistance at 2280 - 2300 yuan/ton [10]. - Pigs: The national pig price fluctuated. The supply side reduced sales, and the demand side was weak. The spot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong, and the futures will oscillate in a range [12]. - Eggs: The national egg spot price was stable. The supply increased, and the demand weakened. The futures are seasonally weak, and the medium - term strategy is short - biased [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased. The market is bearish, and the 2505 contract may continue to be weak, with a risk of short - term rebound [12]. - Urea: The domestic urea market price was stable and slightly strong. With some enterprises under maintenance and continuous demand, the inventory decreased. The UR2505 contract may continue to oscillate strongly, with resistance at 1930 yuan/ton [12]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The copper price may continue to be strong due to factors such as inventory decline and tariff and interest - rate expectations. The aluminum price remained high due to the "Golden March and Silver April" effect. The alumina market is in oversupply, and the 2505 contract is weak [13]. - Steel Products: The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased slightly. The spot market had a certain price - support intention, and the overall inventory pressure was limited. The steel price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to short - long opportunities in the October contract and 5 - 10 reverse arbitrage [14]. - Ferroalloys: The silicon - manganese market sentiment was weak, and the silicon - iron market was also weak. Both are in low - level oscillations [15]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices of coking coal and coke were stable at a low level. Attention should be paid to steel mills' profits and production restocking [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate futures closed up on March 26, but the market is in a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to short on rebounds, with resistance at 75000 yuan/ton and support at 73000 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: A - share indexes oscillated on March 26. The market sentiment was relatively low. The consumption sector can be a focus, and the strategy is defensive. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities and combination arbitrage strategies [18]. - Options: On March 26, A - share indexes oscillated. The trading volume of the stock market shrank. Different index futures and options had different performance in terms of price, position, and implied volatility. Trend investors can consider bullish spread strategies or arbitrage strategies, and volatility investors can sell wide - straddles to short volatility [19].