中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2026 第（25）期 发布日期：2026-02-06 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | | --- | | 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 | | 公司官方微信 | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/6 | 2026/2/5 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,161.00 | 1,172.00 | -11.0 | -0.939 | | | 焦炭 | 1,733.00 | 1,738.00 | -5.0 | -0.288 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,200.00 | 16,175.00 | 25.0 | 0.155 | | | 20号胶 | 13,165.00 | 13,135.00 | 30.0 | 0.228 | | | 塑料 | 6,758.00 | 6.777.00 | -19.0 | -0.280 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,649.00 | 6,676.0 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 2026 第（24）期 发布日期：2026-02-05 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/5 | 2026/2/4 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,187.50 | 1,209.00 | -21.50 | -1.778 | | | 焦炭 | 1,753.00 | 1,770.00 | -17.0 | -0.960 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,325.00 | 16,385.00 | -60.0 | -0.366 | | | 20号胶 | 13,260.00 | 13,300.00 | -40.0 | -0.301 | | | 塑料 | 6,867.00 | 6.918.00 | -51.0 | -0.737 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,759 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of various commodities in the chemical and agricultural sectors showed different trends on February 4, 2026, compared to the previous day [4]. - The macro - economic news includes rumors of VAT rate hikes in some industries, major corporate mergers and IPO plans, and policy directions in different fields [6][7]. - For different commodity futures, the market conditions are affected by supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and macro - economic factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [11][13][15]. - In the stock market, A - shares showed a general upward trend on February 3, while欧美 stocks declined. Different sectors had different performances, and trading strategies are suggested for different investors [22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On February 4, 2026, most chemical futures showed price increases, such as natural rubber with a 0.803% increase, 20 - number rubber with a 0.955% increase, and asphalt with a 0.997% increase. Only PVC and caustic soda showed price decreases, with PVC down 0.335% and caustic soda down 0.863% [4]. 3.2 Macro - Economic News - Rumors of VAT rate hikes in the financial and Internet value - added service industries, especially in the game industry from 6% to 32%, turned out to be false [6]. - SpaceX merged with xAI, with the combined company valued at $1.25 trillion, and an expected IPO later this year [6]. - 30 provinces in China have set their GDP growth targets for 2026, with many economic powerhouses aiming for over 5% growth [6]. - Multiple commercial aerospace companies are in the process of going public, and they may list on the stock market intensively in the next one or two years [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes technological breakthroughs in future industries such as 6G, quantum technology, etc. [7]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a financial technology promotion blueprint and will launch four flagship projects [7]. - There were disputes about OpenAI's attitude towards Nvidia's AI chips, but Nvidia's investment plan in OpenAI is still progressing [7]. - Different Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Waymo completed a new round of $16 billion in financing, with a post - investment valuation of $126 billion [8]. 3.3 Main Commodity Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The supply - demand situation is loose both at home and abroad. The domestic sugar price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. It is advisable to be cautious when short - selling and focus on short - selling opportunities after a rebound [11]. - **Corn**: The market faces seasonal selling pressure before the Spring Festival and weakening demand. The price is in a high - level volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see, with the upper pressure at 2275 yuan and the lower support at 2250 yuan [11]. - **Peanut**: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. The lower support levels are 8000 yuan and 7900 yuan, and the upper pressure is 8100 yuan [11]. - **Pig**: The supply of pigs is temporarily tightened before the Spring Festival, and the futures market is expected to remain volatile [11][13]. - **Egg**: The spot market is stable, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, seeking downward support [13]. - **Jujube**: The price is expected to remain stable in the short term. The downstream demand is fragmented, and the futures market is seeking downward support [13]. - **Cotton**: The supply has a long - term bullish factor of expected yield reduction, but the high inventory suppresses the upward space. The price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile state. It is advisable to operate cautiously on the long side, with the support range at 14500 - 14600 yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are in an oversupply situation, and attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side changes on prices [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal in the production areas have declined, and the replenishment of steel and coking enterprises is coming to an end. The prices are expected to fluctuate and run [13]. - **Log**: The price is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile state, but the upward space is limited. It is advisable to adopt a volatile trading strategy, with the upper pressure at 805 yuan and the lower support at 795 yuan [13][15]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand situation is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure and run weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling lightly when the price is high, with the upper pressure at 5300 yuan/ton and the lower support at 5250 yuan/ton [15]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply - demand relationship is in a weak balance. It is recommended to wait and see. If the price effectively breaks below 4030 yuan, the downward space may be opened [16]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper price is under pressure due to market uncertainties and the rising US dollar index. The aluminum supply is increasing, the demand is showing signs of stabilization, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, but the structural contradiction remains. The market sentiment has stabilized, and attention should be paid to macro - risks [18]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are in an oversupply situation, waiting for new market drivers [20]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The demand is weakening as the holiday approaches, and the steel prices are expected to be under slight pressure and run weakly [20]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The overall fundamentals are relatively healthy, but the market lacks expected drivers. The prices are expected to run weakly with a narrowing range, and the cost provides certain support. It is advisable to have a callback - and - long - biased trading idea and pay attention to the macro - atmosphere [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rebounded strongly after a sharp decline, showing strong support below. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile state in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, with the upper pressure at 151880 yuan and the lower support at 137520 yuan [20][22]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On February 3, A - shares showed a general upward trend, and different stock index futures and options had different performance indicators. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can hold short - wide - straddle positions to short - sell volatility. The stock market is likely to fluctuate in the two weeks before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to structural opportunities [22]. - **Stock Market**: A - shares closed higher on February 3, with active performance in some concept sectors. The欧美 stock market declined, and technology stocks were under pressure. The trading strategy is to participate in the rebound lightly when the price stabilizes after a sharp decline, not to chase the rise, and to realize profits when the price rises [22][23].

铁水微降，原料支撑减弱 ——周报20260202 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研 究 所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | 本期观点——铁矿石 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：澳洲和巴西铁矿发运2521万吨（环比+5.30%，同比+9%）,铁矿石45港 | | | | | 口到港量2484.7万吨（环比-1.79%，同比+41.02%）. | | | | | 需求：铁水日产227.98万吨（环比-0.12万吨，同比-0.46万吨 ），铁矿石45 | | | | | 港口疏港量332.31万吨（环比+6.94%，同比+23.69%）。 | | | | | 库存：铁矿石45港口库存17022.26万吨（环比+1.53%，同比+10.59%）,247家 | 单边： | | | | | | 铁水超预 | | 铁矿 | 钢企进口铁矿库存9968.59万吨（环比+6.18%，同比+5.32%）。 | ...

淡季基本面继续转弱，钢价承压回落 ——周报20260202 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：螺纹钢周产量199.83万吨（环比+0.14%，同比+12.47%），全国热卷周产 | | | | | 量309.21万吨（环比+1.24%，同比-4.40%）。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费176.4万吨（环比-4.92%，同比+125%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 311.41万吨（环比+0.47%，同比+14.78%）。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存475.53万吨（环比+5.18%，同比-27.19%），热卷总库存 | | | | | 355.58万吨（环比-0.61%，同比-8.5%）。 | | | | | | | 宏观超 | | 螺纹 | 成本 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/3 | 2026/2/2 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,175.00 | 1,141.50 | 33.50 | 2.935 | | | 焦炭 | 1,729.00 | 1,680.50 | 48.50 | 2.886 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,090.00 | 15,980.00 | 110.0 | 0.688 | | | 20号胶 | 12,995.00 | 12,925.00 | 70.0 | 0.542 | | | 塑料 | 6,902.00 | 6,878.00 | 24.0 | 0.349 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,734.00 | 6,714.00 | 20.0 | 0.298 | | | (PTA) | 5,142.00 | 5.092.00 | 50.0 | 0.982 | | | PVC | 5,059.00 | 5,014.00 | 45.0 | 0. ...

作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：柳州现货价周内上涨0.57%至5320元/吨，市场情绪谨慎偏弱。基 | | | | 差收窄至72元/吨，环比大幅下降34.55%，显示期货反弹力度强于现货。 | | | | | 预计未来1-2周， | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周度上涨1.31%，收于5248元/吨，周内波动加剧，1月29 | | | | 日单日涨幅达1.56%。持仓量环比下降3.11%至45.2万手，显示反弹后资金离场观 | 郑糖主力合约将 | | | | 在成本支撑与供 | | | 望。 | 应压力的夹击下， | | | 【供应方面】：国内处于压榨高峰期，本榨季增产预期强烈。仓单及有效预报合 | | | | 计环比增长2.39%至14208张，反映现货供应压力正逐步向盘面传导。 | 于5150-5300元/ | | | 【需求方面】：数据未提供明确的周度消费量或订单量变化。市场看跌比例仍高 | ...

碳酸锂市场高位暴跌，监管降温与高库存压 力共振 --碳酸锂周报2026-01-26至2026-01-30 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：现货价格同步走弱，电池级碳酸锂周内下跌5.62%至159500元/吨， | | | | 市场情绪急剧转弱。期货深度贴水，基差达11300元/吨，环比大幅收窄190.26%， | | | | 反映期货跌幅远超现货。 | | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约价格剧烈波动，周度暴跌10.99%至148200元/吨，周内振 | | | | | 预计未来1-2周， | | | 幅巨大。持仓量环比下降15.07%至372601手，显示多头资金在监管压力下撤离， | 碳酸锂市场在消 | | | 市场博弈降温。 | 化监管影响和高 | | | 【供应方面】：供应端扰动持续，但产能利用率维持87.14%高位。12月国内锂盐 | | | | 厂库存环比大增33.5%，仓单总量周环比增长 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the inventory of five major steel products has started to increase. Rebar production has increased while demand has decreased, with inventory rising month - on - month, but the inventory accumulation pressure is limited due to the low absolute quantity. The decline in hot - rolled coil inventory has narrowed, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory rising, and the short - term inventory contradiction is limited. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from overseas (Australia and Brazil) has decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume has increased. The daily output of hot metal continues to rise, supporting the restocking demand. However, port inventory has further increased, and the price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the upside is limited [4]. - For coking coal and coke, supply has gradually recovered as some coal mines resumed production, and downstream transactions have improved. With the continuous increase in the daily output of hot metal, there is a certain support for coking coal and coke, and they are expected to operate in a strong - oscillating manner [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the macro - environment improved, but the industrial supply - demand structure weakened. Rebar inventory started to increase, and the decline in hot - rolled coil inventory narrowed. Steel prices lacked upward momentum and showed an oscillating pattern [9]. 2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Rebar weekly output was 191.04 tons (up 1.50% month - on - month and down 4.20% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 305.51 tons (up 0.33% month - on - month and up 0.53% year - on - year). Both blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar increased, and the operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces also increased. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased [14][15][25]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 174.96 tons (down 12.71% month - on - month and down 5.50% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 308.34 tons (down 0.78% month - on - month and up 2.41% year - on - year). The demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased [33]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory started to increase, with both factory and social inventories rising. Hot - rolled coil inventory decline slowed down, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory rising [34][39]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, both the commercial housing and land markets showed a month - on - month decline. In the automotive market, in November 2025, automobile production and sales continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year [44][47]. 3. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2606.4 tons (down 5% month - on - month and down 0.7% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2920.4 tons (up 5.95% month - on - month and up 24.59% year - on - year) [56]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 229.5 tons (up 2.07 tons month - on - month and up 5.13 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 323.27 tons (down 0.60% month - on - month and down 0.92% year - on - year) [61]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 16275.26 tons (up 1.91% month - on - month and up 8.10% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8989.59 tons (up 0.48% month - on - month and down 10.77% year - on - year) [66]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 85.34% (up 7.17% month - on - month and down 2.52% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.90 tons (down 11.27% month - on - month and up 10.11% year - on - year) [72]. - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 95.12% (up 21.42% month - on - month and up 37.72% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 85.85% (up 24.26% week - on - week and up 32.89% year - on - year) [75]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 45 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.69% (up 1.35% month - on - month and down 0.63% year - on - year) [81]. - **Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory decreased month - on - month, and coking plant inventory increased. Coke port inventory increased slightly, and coking plant inventory decreased [82][88]. - **Spot Price**: After the fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, the price remained stable, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued [94]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil both contracted, and the 5 - 10 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil slightly contracted. The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread oscillated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore slightly contracted [100][105].

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2026 第（21）期 发布日期：2026-02-02 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 0371-58620083 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/2 | 2026/2/1 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,181.00 | 1,155.50 | 25.50 | 2.20:7 | | | 焦炭 | 1,733.00 | 1,721.50 | 11.50 | 0.668 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,175.00 | 16,360.00 | -185.0 | -1.131 | | | 20号胶 | 13,040.00 | 13,235.00 | -195.0 | -1.473 | | | 塑料 | 6,935.00 | 7,014.00 | -79.0 | -1.126 ...