1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various industries including chemicals, agriculture, energy, non - ferrous metals, and financial options. It provides price data, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for different commodities and financial instruments. For the stock market, it suggests considering non - silver large finance, non - ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors for investment [10][14][17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - On January 8, 2026, among domestic chemical products, prices of some products like coking coal, coke, and plastic increased, while others such as natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and PTA decreased. For example, coking coal rose from 1,164.00 to 1,215.00 with a 4.381% increase, and natural rubber dropped from 1,6180.00 to 16,135.00 with a - 0.278% decrease [4]. 3.2 Agriculture - **Sugar**: On January 7, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued its low - level rebound. With supply pressure from Brazil and India's potential over - production, but cost support in China, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate between 5200 - 5400 yuan. A strategy of high - selling and low - buying in this range is recommended [10]. - **Corn**: On January 7, corn futures prices broke through the previous trading range. With supply pressure and demand support coexisting, the short - term trend is strong, and investors can consider buying on dips, with support at 2230 yuan [10]. - **Peanuts**: On January 7, peanut futures prices oscillated narrowly. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [10]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price increase is mainly driven by sentiment and short - term stocking. It is expected to continue rising in the short - term but at a slower pace, and then gradually stabilize. The futures market is oscillating strongly, and the inter - month reverse spread should be held [10]. - **Cotton**: On January 7, cotton futures prices rose significantly. With strengthened supply reduction expectations and improved demand, the market is running strongly, but investors need to beware of short - term corrections, with support at 14800 - 14900 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term spot market for caustic soda is relatively stable, but the overall supply is in excess. The price is expected to weaken steadily, and the impact of market sentiment changes should be noted [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The port trade enterprise quotes for coking coal have risen, but the transaction volume is average. Coke's downward price expectation has decreased. The short - term trend is oscillating strongly [11]. - **Log**: On January 7, log futures prices broke through the previous pressure level. With a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, investors can consider buying on dips after the price correction, with support at 780 [12]. - **Pulp**: On January 7, pulp futures prices showed a high - level decline. With strong supply - side cost support and weak demand, the price is supported by cost but limited by demand. It is recommended to wait and see at the 5600 - yuan pressure level [12]. - **Double - offset Paper**: On January 7, double - offset paper futures prices oscillated downward. The market maintains a weak supply - demand balance. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with support at 4100 yuan and pressure at 4400 yuan [12]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: On January 7, copper prices were boosted by expectations of interest rate cuts and supply concerns. Aluminum prices are expected to be supported by policies in the long - term. However, on Wednesday, the prices of copper and aluminum showed a high - level decline, and investors need to beware of macro risks [13][14]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in excess, and the price rebound is driven by market sentiment. It is not advisable to chase the high price [14]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose at night. The spot market trading improved, and the prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upward trend may slow down [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: On Wednesday, ferroalloys followed the upward trend of coking coal and coke. With the improvement of the market atmosphere, they are expected to be strong in the short - term, and industrial selling hedging can wait and see [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On January 7, lithium carbonate futures prices fluctuated strongly. With potential supply increase and demand turning points, investors need to beware of high - level corrections and should be cautious when chasing the high price [14][16]. 3.5 Option Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 7, the three major A - share indexes rose slightly, but the stock index futures showed a mixed performance. For investors, trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell straddles to short volatility. The stock market may face profit - taking pressure in the short - term [16]. - **Investment Directions**: It is recommended to consider non - silver large finance, non - ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors such as storage chips, commercial aerospace, and AI applications. For ordinary investors, it is advisable to allocate a certain amount of long - term stock index futures contracts or broad - based ETFs, and then choose some industry ETFs or individual stocks to obtain excess returns [17][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market experienced a significant decline on Monday, with silver prices first surging and then plummeting, dragging down other precious metals. The domestic precious metals market also saw sharp drops [9]. - China will be the first economy to pay interest on central bank digital currency, and the new - generation digital RMB system will be launched on January 1, 2026 [9]. - The Chinese People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command organized military exercises, and the State Council Tariff Commission announced the 2026 tariff adjustment plan [10]. - The market regulatory总局 deployed key tasks for 2026 and introduced new regulations on food production supervision [11]. - In the futures market, different varieties showed various trends. Some agricultural products and energy - chemical products had price fluctuations, and the stock index futures and options market also had its own characteristics [6][13][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Chemical Industry - On December 30, 2025, among chemical products, the prices of coking coal, coke, asphalt, methanol, etc. rose, while the prices of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, etc. fell. For example, coking coal rose 20.50 to 1,108.50, with a 1.884% increase; natural rubber fell 65.0 to 15,600.00, with a - 0.415% decrease [6]. 2. Agricultural Products - On December 29, 2025, the prices of some agricultural products showed different trends. Sugar prices were in a low - level range, with cost support but limited upside due to supply pressure. Corn prices rebounded, and peanuts were under pressure below 8000 yuan. The pig market showed signs of stabilization, and the egg market had a strong price - increase expectation. Cotton prices had a short - term correction after rising, but the fundamentals remained strong [13]. 3. Energy - Chemical Products - For caustic soda, the market is expected to continue its weak trend due to supply - demand contradictions. Coking coal and coke markets are in a weak and volatile state. Log prices are in a narrow - range shock, and pulp prices have a greater downward risk. Double - offset paper prices have broken through the previous resistance level, and copper and aluminum prices continue to run at a high level. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and steel prices are in a range - bound state. Ferroalloys are currently treated with a bullish short - term view, and lithium carbonate prices have reversed their previous upward trend [14][15][16]. 4. Option Finance - On December 29, 2025, the three major A - share indexes showed different trends, with more stocks falling than rising. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion for two consecutive days. The stock index futures and options market had different performance in terms of positions, spreads, and implied volatility. The short - term market may fluctuate, and investors are advised to pay attention to the trading rhythm and moderately increase positions on dips [18][19][20].

Report Title - The report is titled "Year-End Expectation Improvement, Alloy Continues to Rebound - Ferroalloy Weekly Report 20251229" [1] Report Analyst Information - The analyst is Peng Bohan from the Research and Consulting Department, with contact information: phone number 0371 - 58630083, email pengbh_qh@ccnew.com, professional certificate number F3076814, and investment consulting number Z0016415 [2] Core Views Silicon Iron - The main logic includes supply with a narrowing decline in production due to a rebound in the futures market; demand with a halt in the decline and a rebound in finished product output; inventory with a reduction in factory inventory; cost with a slight decline in semi - coke; and a weakening basis due to the futures market rebound. Recently, the continuous strength of precious metals and non - ferrous metals has improved the commodity sentiment. The alloy price has digested its weak supply - demand situation at a low level. With the New Year's steel procurement and winter storage expectations, it rebounded unexpectedly last week following the black series. It should be treated with a bullish view in the short term, but the industry is advised to conduct high - level hedging operations [4] Manganese Silicon - The main logic involves supply with a decline in production; demand with a narrowing decline in finished product output; inventory with continuous pressure on factory inventory; cost with firm manganese ore prices; and a repair of the futures discount. Similar to silicon iron, it also rebounded unexpectedly last week. It should be treated with a bullish view in the short term, and the industry is also advised to conduct high - level hedging operations [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Silicon Iron Supply - The weekly output of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 9.85 tons (down 1.3% week - on - week and 9.5% year - on - year). The output in November 2025 was 47.11 tons (down 6.78% month - on - month and 7.71% year - on - year) [6] Demand - The consumption of silicon iron in five major steel products was 1.8 tons (up 0.4% week - on - week and down 8.3% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 796.8 tons (down 0.1% week - on - week and 5.5% year - on - year) [9] Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 6.36 tons (down 2.4% week - on - week and 17.3% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in December were 15.4 days (down 0.39 days month - on - month and up 0.39 days year - on - year) [11] Cost - The prices of raw materials such as electricity, semi - coke, anode, and oxidized iron scale were mostly stable, with a 3.75% decline in semi - coke in some regions. The silicon iron cost in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia decreased by about 0.5%, and the profit increased by about 9 - 13% [14] Futures - Spot Relationship - The number of silicon iron warehouse receipts was 11,882 (down 897 week - on - week and up 3,252 year - on - year). The basis of the 03 contract in Ningxia was - 72 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week [17] Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - The document provides historical data on total position, position of different contracts, and precipitated funds of silicon iron, but no specific latest data summaries are given other than the above - mentioned warehouse receipt and basis information [19] Manganese Silicon Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 19.25 tons (up 2.3% week - on - week and down 3.8% year - on - year). The national silicon manganese output in November was 84.88 tons (down 7.3% month - on - month and up 3.1% year - on - year) [24] Demand - The weekly consumption of silicon manganese was 11.26 tons (up 0.22% week - on - week and down 8% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 796.8 tons (down 0.1% week - on - week and 5.5% year - on - year) [26] Inventory - The enterprise sample inventory was 38.6 tons (up 0.4% week - on - week and 200% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in December were 15.52 days (down 0.3 days month - on - month and 0.3 days year - on - year) [29] Cost - The prices of electricity were stable. The prices of some manganese ores increased slightly, and the price of chemical coke in Inner Mongolia decreased by 4.5%. The silicon manganese cost in different regions decreased by about 0.3 - 0.4%, and the profit increased by about 9 - 17% [36] Futures - Spot Relationship - The number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts was 23,277 (down 374 week - on - week and 39,257 year - on - year). The 03 basis in Inner Mongolia was 100 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week [31] Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - The document provides historical data on total position, position of different contracts, and precipitated funds of silicon manganese, but no specific latest data summaries are given other than the above - mentioned warehouse receipt and basis information [38]

沪指呈现8连阳 把握慢牛机会 ——股指周报2025.12.29 数字金融部：李卫红 联系方式：0371-68599157 电子邮箱：liwh_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询编号：Z0017812 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | | 操作上，周五盘 | | | | 1、2025年的A股市场就将迎来收官，回首全年，A股市场产生了528只翻倍股，数量是 | 中指数出现跳水 | | | | 2024年的4倍多。其中，124只个股涨幅超2倍，6只个股超5倍。区间涨幅最高的2只个 | 下跌，是大盘在 | | | | 股为上纬新材（688585.SH）和天普股份（605255.SH），是按收盘价计算年内唯二的 | 连阳之后出现的 | | | | 十倍股。高居涨幅榜的"牛股"呈现出两大特点：或是AI概念股，或是并购概念股。 | 正常现象，伴随 | | | | 2024年9月，证监会发布了《关于深化上市公司并购重组市场改革的意见》，旨在进一 | 着沪指逼近4000 | | | | 步激活并购重组市场活力。在政策推动下，今年以 ...

作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 逻辑驱动 | 品种 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：电池级碳酸锂现货价格周内上涨16.89%至120400元/吨，市场情绪 | | | | 高涨。但期货价格持续高于现货，基差深度贴水扩大至-10120元/吨（环比增 | | | | 20.48%），显示现货跟涨乏力。 | | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周度大涨17.16%，收于130520元/吨，连续突破关键整数 | | | | 关口。持仓量周内下降13.72%至577035手，价格在巨幅波动中减仓上行，波动率 | 预计未来1-2周， | | | | 市场在情绪与监 | | | 显著放大。 | 管压力下将转入 | | | 【供应方面】：碳酸锂产能利用率维持83.52%高位，供应端呈现国内高开工与盐 | | | | 湖季节性减产预期并存的结构性矛盾。 | 高位剧烈震荡， | | | | 需警惕快速回调 | | | 【需求方面】：正极材料厂对高价接受度有限，采购偏谨慎， ...

| 类别 | 地区 | 上周五 | 本周五 | 周度价格变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 11号糖连续合约收盘价 | 14.82 | 15. 17 | 2. 36% | | | 郑糖主力合约收盘价 | 5088 | 5285 | 3. 87% | | 现货 | 南宁现价 | 5240 | 5340 | 1. 91% | | | 柳州现价 | 5230 | 5330 | 1.91% | | | 昆明现价 | 5180 | 5200 | 0. 39% | | | 加工企业:目照凌云海现价 | 5780 | 5780 | 0.00% | | 基差 | 柳州糖和主力合约基差 | 142 | 45 | -68. 31% | | | 仓单数量 | 3611 | 5038 | 39.52% | | 合車 | 有效预报 | 1490 | 1402 | -5.91% | | | 合计:仓单+有效预报 | 5101 | 6440 | 26. 25% | | | 多头 | 316729 | | #VALUE ! | | CFTC非商业持仓 | 空头 | 159080 | | # ...

市场博弈加剧，铜价站在十万 ——铜铝周报2025.12.29 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 交易咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：市场继续交易明年美联储降息。 | 沪铜2602合约 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：全球铜库存继续向美国市场转移，供应端仍存在紧张预 | 位105000元/ | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | 期，关注年底冶炼厂长单谈判情况。需求方面，高价铜短期抑制需 | 吨一线，下方 | 济数据变化； | | | 求，但长期看，AI等新兴领域用铜需求或将成为爆发点。 | 参考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 3、整体逻辑：铜价中期看涨逻辑不变，短期关注宏观情绪和资金面 | 95000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | | | 的扰动。 | 线。 | | 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | ...

作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【供应】：新棉加工接近尾声，截止12月25日24时，累计公检量达560.89万吨， | | | | 但日均公检降至 5.5 万吨。商业库存回升，但上年度低库存+ 新年度低进口，整 | | | | 体供应增幅有限。 | | | | 【需求】：本周轧花厂加工利润1013~1078元/吨，纺纱厂即期利润-1351.5~-507 | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | 【库存】：库存位于往年同期偏高。 | | | | 【成本】：成本较高在14700~15000及以上，成本较低在14600以下，较高成本等 | | | | 待套保，较低成本顺价出货 | 震荡偏强。重点 | | 棉花 | 【基差】：基差略有走强，现货维稳。 | 关注政策和需求 | | | 【总结】：国际市场，周初因出口数据改善有限短暂回调，但随后在最新美棉签 | 端新市场信息。 | | | 约与装运数据明显好转，以及外围金融和 ...

持续去库&淡季需求受限，钢价震荡运行 ——周报20251222 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：螺纹钢周产量181.68万吨（环比+1.62%，同比-16.94%），全国热卷周产 | | | | | 量291.91万吨（环比-5.44%，同比-6.65%）。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费208.64万吨（环比+2.73%，同比-4.98%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 298.28万吨（环比-4.39%，同比-4.46%）。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存452.54万吨（环比-5.62%，同比+12.29%），热卷总库存 | 区间震荡 | | | | 390.72万吨（环比-1.60%，同比+26.33%）。 | | | | | | 螺纹钢 | 宏 ...

本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 【现货市场】：现货价格普遍下跌，柳州现货价周环比下跌1.88%至5230元/吨， | 策略及风险提示 预计未来1-2周， 白糖价格在供应 压力主导下，将 继续维持弱势震 荡探底格局，关 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场情绪悲观，看跌比例高达70%。基差走强至142元/吨，周环比激增1320%，反 映期货跌幅大于现货。 【期货市场】：主力合约价格周内下跌2.29%，收于5088元/吨，跌破前期支撑。 持仓量大幅增加21.8%至52.3万手，显示空头增仓压力显著，价格波动呈现单边下 行特征。 【供应方面】：国内新榨季全面展开，南方糖厂集中开榨，新糖上市供应压力持 | 注成本线附近的 支撑力度。 风险提示： 1.原糖价格企稳 反弹，若国际糖 价因北半球生产 | | | 续。仓单及有效预报合计5101张，周环比激增142.79%，印证新糖注册压力。 | 不及预期等因素 | | | 【需求方面】：终端采购谨慎，需求表现平淡。市场看跌情绪浓厚，看跌比例环 | 止跌回升，可能 | | | 比增长27.27%至70%，显示下游对后市普遍不乐观。 | 带动国内超跌反 | ...